\n\u0162i\u0163eiul Brent a sc\u0103zut de la 118 dolari pe baril \u00een februarie la mai pu\u0163in de 100 de dolari, pre\u0163urile unora dintre m\u0103rfurile agricole au cobor\u00e2t \u015fi ele, iar aurul a pierdut 15% \u00een doar dou\u0103 zile. Consiliul Mondial al Aurului, cu sediul la Londra, a acuzat natura pur speculativ\u0103 \u015fi deci temporar\u0103 a c\u0103derii pre\u0163ului unciei de aur, specific\u0103 pie\u0163elor de materii prime. Anali\u015ftii financiari (unii dintre ei reprezent\u00e2nd tocmai interesele fondurilor speculative) insist\u0103, \u00een schimb, c\u0103 ieftinirea metalelor pre\u0163ioase are la baz\u0103 factori obiectivi: perspectiva unor v\u00e2nz\u0103ri de aur de c\u0103tre b\u0103nci centrale din \u0163\u0103ri ale zonei euro, faptul c\u0103 economia Chinei evolueaz\u0103 pu\u0163in sub a\u015ftept\u0103ri, dar mai ales perspectiva unei \u00eencet\u0103ri a programului Fed de tip\u0103rire de bani \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 c\u00e2nd “presiuni dezinfla\u0163ioniste \u00eencep s\u0103 se acumuleze \u00een varii puncte ale economiei globale”, conform BofA Merrill Lynch.<\/p>\n
\nAl\u0163i comentatori vorbesc \u00eens\u0103 de un revers al “superciclului” care a dus pre\u0163urile materiilor prime la niveluri record din 1998 \u00eencoace. “Ciclul de scumpire a m\u0103rfurilor a ajuns acum \u00een faza descendent\u0103, dar aceasta nu indic\u0103 o pr\u0103bu\u015fire a cererii, ci mai cur\u00e2nd o supraofert\u0103, care permite o consolidare a pre\u0163urilor la un nivel totu\u015fi ridicat”, noteaz\u0103 Frederic Neumann, director de cercetare pentru Asia la HSBC. Ieftinirea materiilor prime este pozitiv\u0103 pentru Asia, afirm\u0103 Frederic Neumann, \u00eentruc\u00e2t relaxeaz\u0103 presiunea asupra balan\u0163elor de pl\u0103\u0163i \u015fi ofer\u0103 b\u0103ncilor centrale marj\u0103 de ac\u0163iune, \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care s-a redus amenin\u0163area infla\u0163iei – principala problem\u0103 pentru Asia \u00een cursul precedentelor runde de relaxare monetar\u0103 din SUA, c\u00e2nd Fed a “exportat” infla\u0163ie folosindu-\u015fi tiparni\u0163a de bani.<\/p>\n
\nAdep\u0163ii ideii c\u0103 “superciclul” de scumpiri ale m\u0103rfurilor s-a \u00eencheiat sus\u0163in, cu mai mult temei, c\u0103 la originea c\u0103derii pre\u0163urilor stau factori structurali \u015fi c\u0103, deci, nu vom mai asista la o cre\u015ftere a pre\u0163urilor la nivelurile dinainte de criz\u0103. “Superciclul” a fost impulsionat de faptul c\u0103, pe parcursul anilor ’80-’90, pre\u0163urile sc\u0103zute pe atunci ale materiilor prime au descurajat investi\u0163iile \u00een noi mine sau exploat\u0103ri petroliere, precum \u015fi de explozia cererii de m\u0103rfuri din partea pie\u0163elor emergente, \u00een special din China. Ulterior, investi\u0163iile \u00een exploat\u0103ri de petrol \u015fi gaze \u015fi \u00een noi exploat\u0103ri miniere au cunoscut o relansare, \u00een paralel cu men\u0163inerea cererii globale la un nivel ridicat.<\/p>\n
\nCriza a schimbat \u00eens\u0103 lucrurile, l\u0103s\u00e2nd companiile cu stocuri nev\u00e2ndute de cupru ori aluminiu \u015fi cu investi\u0163ii \u00een cercetarea energetic\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 neamortizate. \u00cen urm\u0103torul deceniu, potrivit anali\u015ftilor cita\u0163i de Reuters, niciunul dintre ace\u015fti doi factori nu va mai ac\u0163iona cu aceea\u015fi intensitate, ceea ce va \u00eentre\u0163ine situa\u0163ia de supraofert\u0103 existent\u0103 \u00een prezent, at\u00e2t \u00een produc\u0163ia de petrol \u015fi gaze, c\u00e2t \u015fi \u00een produc\u0163ia de minerale \u015fi metale industriale. Deja grupuri financiare ca JP Morgan Chase vor s\u0103 lanseze fonduri deschise de investi\u0163ii av\u00e2nd ca activ de baz\u0103 cuprul, ceea ce indic\u0103 inten\u0163ia investitorilor de a profita pe aceast\u0103 cale de ni\u015fte stocuri de metale care altminteri n-ar mai putea aduce c\u00e2\u015ftig.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dup\u0103 ce Ciprul a dezmin\u0163it c\u0103 are \u00een vedere s\u0103 v\u00e2nd\u0103 rezerve de aur \u00een valoare de 400 mil. euro, cei mai mul\u0163i anali\u015fti au r\u0103mas s\u0103 invoce pesimismul privind redresarea economic\u0103 \u00een zona euro \u015fi cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 sub a\u015ftept\u0103ri \u00een China drept motive pentru recenta c\u0103dere a pre\u0163urilor la bursele de m\u0103rfuri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[286,368,6545,375,8298,10286,18641,353,340,23432,33697],"class_list":["post-81544","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-aur","tag-burse","tag-china","tag-gaze","tag-marfuri","tag-materii-prime","tag-minerit","tag-petrol","tag-preturi","tag-stocuri","tag-supraoferta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81544","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=81544"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81544\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94550,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/81544\/revisions\/94550"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=81544"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=81544"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=81544"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}