Pe de o parte, conform anali\u015ftilor de la Raiffeisen, o \u00eent\u00e2rziere a form\u0103rii noului guvern, \u00een perspectiva negocierilor dure cu FMI pe marginea bugetului pentru 2013, ar influen\u0163a negativ at\u00e2t leul, c\u00e2t \u015fi dob\u00e2nzile la datoria Rom\u00e2niei. Pe de alt\u0103 parte, \u00een opinia acelora\u015fi, Rom\u00e2nia are de rambursat la anul cca 4 mld. euro c\u0103tre FMI, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t BNR s-ar putea ar\u0103ta mai pu\u0163in dispus\u0103 s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 rezerva valutar\u0103 spre a sus\u0163ine leul. Nu trebuie uitat \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 BNR are \u00eens\u0103 la dispozi\u0163ie p\u00e2rghia managementului lichidit\u0103\u0163ii, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t “ar putea s\u0103 apere activ leul dac\u0103 rata de schimb cre\u015fte aproape de maximele record (\u00een jur de 4,65 le\/euro)”, apreciaz\u0103 anali\u015ftii XTB Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n
Cursul leului va fi influen\u0163at \u015fi de percep\u0163ia asupra voin\u0163ei Rom\u00e2niei de a merge \u00eenainte cu reformele, \u0163in\u00e2nd cont c\u0103 abandonarea obiectivului de aderare la zona euro ar fi interpretat\u0103 automat drept o und\u0103 verde dat\u0103 abolirii limitelor de deficit bugetar, datorie public\u0103 \u015fi infla\u0163ie. Aceasta nu se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 \u00eens\u0103: dac\u0103 obiectivul ader\u0103rii la euro \u00een 2015 a disp\u0103rut, discu\u0163ia ar urma s\u0103 se reia dup\u0103 alegeri pentru a se ajunge la un “calendar realist”, sus\u0163ine Bogdan Olteanu, viceguvernator al BNR, care a afirmat \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, la o conferin\u0163\u0103 pe teme financiare, c\u0103 banca central\u0103 are deja astfel de discu\u0163ii cu b\u0103ncile comerciale.<\/p>\n
P\u00e2n\u0103 atunci, nu doar BNR, ci \u015fi marile b\u0103nci continu\u0103 s\u0103 promoveze creditarea \u00een lei, dup\u0103 exemplul BCR, care a anun\u0163at c\u0103 va oferi \u00eemprumuturi ipotecare numai \u00een lei, \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care o pondere a \u00eemprumuturilor \u00een valut\u0103 de peste 60% din PIB r\u0103m\u00e2ne o surs\u0103 de risc pentru Rom\u00e2nia. Pe bun\u0103 dreptate \u00eens\u0103, economistul-\u015fef al BNR, Valentin Lazea, a atras aten\u0163ia, \u00een cadrul aceleia\u015fi conferin\u0163e, c\u0103 prima condi\u0163ie a dezeuroiz\u0103rii este existen\u0163a unei economisiri semnificative \u00een lei, care nu se poate dezvolta dec\u00e2t dac\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile sunt real pozitive, adic\u0103 acoper\u0103 rata infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
V\u00e2rful de curs atins joi (4,5454 lei\/euro, maximul ultimelor \u015fase s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni) a fost pentru comentatorii economici un indiciu al presiunilor de depreciere latente asupra leului, care s-ar putea accentua \u00een condi\u0163ii de instabilitate guvernamental\u0103 sau dac\u0103 speculatorii ar \u00eencepe s\u0103 pe ideea c\u0103 BNR se va ab\u0163ine s\u0103 foloseasc\u0103 la anul rezerva valutar\u0103 spre a ap\u0103ra leul.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[185,557,7733,12992,8897,930,7136,7433,9,8349,220],"class_list":["post-75398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bnr","tag-creditare","tag-curs-valutar","tag-datorie","tag-depreciere","tag-euro","tag-finante","tag-fmi","tag-guvern","tag-leu","tag-politica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=75398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88882,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75398\/revisions\/88882"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=75398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=75398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=75398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}