Fondator \u015fi pre\u015fedinte al celei mai cunoscute agen\u0163ii private de analiz\u0103 geopolitic\u0103 a momentului (Stratfor), Friedman \u00ee\u015fi restr\u00e2nge unghiul de investiga\u0163ie, dup\u0103 ce, cu pu\u0163in\u0103 vreme \u00een urm\u0103, lansase pe pia\u0163\u0103 r\u0103sun\u0103torul “Urm\u0103torii 100 de ani”, care explora for\u0163ele impersonale ce schimb\u0103 cursul istoriei pe termen lung.<\/p>\n
“\u00centr-un secol conteaz\u0103 evenimentele. \u00centr-un deceniu – oamenii”, scrie el. Noi tr\u0103im \u00een intervale scurte, \u00een care destinele ne sunt conturate nu at\u00e2t de curente politice vaste, c\u00e2t de de anumite decizii ale unor indivizi. Iar prezentul volum trateaz\u0103 intervalul scurt al urm\u0103torilor zece ani, realit\u0103\u0163ile concrete pe care va trebui s\u0103 le \u00eenfrunt\u0103m, deciziile ce vor fi luate \u015fi consecin\u0163ele acelor decizii.<\/p>\n
Contrazic\u00e2nd prejudecata general\u0103 potrivit c\u0103reia previziunile sunt cu at\u00e2t mai grele cu c\u00e2t intervalul vizat de ele este mai lung, Friedman afirm\u0103 c\u0103 ac\u0163iunile individuale (cele ce conteaz\u0103 \u00een spa\u0163iul unui deceniu, dar se pierd \u00een torentul judec\u0103\u0163ilor care compun un secol) sunt cel mai dificil de prezis. Cu toate acestea, aventura lui “divinatorie” traseaz\u0103 un drum c\u00e2t se poate de plauzibil al urm\u0103torilor, pu\u0163ini, ani (vorba celor de la New York Times Magazine: “C\u00e2nd cite\u015fti c\u0103r\u0163ile lui Friedman, ai senza\u0163ia c\u0103 prive\u015fti viitorul \u00eentr-un glob de cristal”).<\/p>\n
Prin urmare, anticipeaz\u0103 americanul, urm\u0103torul deceniu va fi unul de tranzi\u0163ie major\u0103: SUA (c\u0103reia Friedman \u00eei analizeaz\u0103 sl\u0103biciunile \u015fi polticile hazardate) vor resim\u0163i nevoia de a reveni la strategia global\u0103 echilibrat\u0103, pericolul rena\u015fterii Rusiei ca putere global\u0103 va fi c\u00e2t se poate de real, expansiunea chinez\u0103 se va estompa odat\u0103 ce miracolul economic al \u0163\u0103rii se va \u00eemplini (e un alt fel de a spune c\u0103 Imperiul de mijloc va intra \u00een criz\u0103), r\u0103zboaiele din lumea islamic\u0103 se vor domoli, vom \u00eenv\u0103\u0163a s\u0103 tr\u0103im cu terorismul, SUA se vor apropia de \u00een\u0163elegere cu Iranul, raporturile Israelului cu America vor cunoa\u015fte modific\u0103ri profunde. Iar economic vorbin, criza ne va duce \u00eentr-o epoc\u0103 \u00een care lipsa for\u0163ei de munc\u0103 se va resim\u0163i pretutindeni.<\/p>\n
George Friedman, “Urm\u0103torul deceniu, De unde venim… \u015fi \u00eencotro ne \u00eendrept\u0103m”, Editura Litera, Bucure\u015fti, 2011<\/u><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
R\u0103spunsul \u00eel afl\u0103m de la George Friedman, \u00een recent ap\u0103rutul s\u0103u volum “The Next Decade” (Doubleday, mai 2011), tradus cu o remarcabil\u0103 celeritate \u00een rom\u00e2ne\u015fte \u015fi publicat de editura Litera (noiembrie 2011).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7194],"tags":[7193,22963,25883,220,8350,25882,25885,25884],"class_list":["post-52761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-carte","tag-carte","tag-editura-litera","tag-george-friedman","tag-politica","tag-prognoza","tag-stratfor","tag-the-next-decade","tag-urmatorul-deceniu"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=52761"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52761\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":69536,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52761\/revisions\/69536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=52761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=52761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=52761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}