\nEconomia Statelor Unite ar putea intra \u00eentr-o recesiune sever\u0103 \u00een 2027, dup\u0103 mai mul\u0163i ani de cre\u015ftere robust\u0103, avertizeaz\u0103 David Rosenberg, economist de top \u015fi pre\u015fedinte al Rosenberg Research. Potrivit acestuia, dou\u0103 motoare esen\u0163iale care au sus\u0163inut expansiunea, stimulul fiscal semnificativ \u015fi investi\u0163iile masive \u00een inteligen\u0163a artificial\u0103, urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 se epuizeze, l\u0103s\u00e2nd economia vulnerabil\u0103, noteaz\u0103 Business Insider.<\/p>\n
\nRosenberg a explicat c\u0103 \u201eam putea avea o recesiune sever\u0103 \u00een 2027, pentru c\u0103 cheltuielile companiile nu vor mai putea cheltui bani ca \u00eenainte\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n El a ad\u0103ugat c\u0103, dup\u0103 ce americanii vor primi ramburs\u0103rile de impozite \u00een acest an, economia ar putea beneficia de o perioad\u0103 de respiro de dou\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la trei luni \u00eenainte de apari\u0163ia unor probleme mai serioase.<\/p>\n
\nStimulul fiscal \u015fi cel legat de AI au fost \u00een ultimii ani principalii factori care au alimentat cre\u015fterea economic\u0103. Printre acestea se num\u0103r\u0103 legisla\u0163ia semnat\u0103 \u00een timpul administra\u0163iei Trump, One Big Beautiful Bill, care a extins reducerile de taxe din 2017 \u015fi a introdus politici menite s\u0103 stimuleze economia. Estim\u0103rile Tax Foundation indicau un impact pozitiv pe termen lung de aproximativ 1,2 puncte procentuale asupra PIB-ului.<\/p>\n
\nRosenberg avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 efectul acestor stimulente ar putea fi compromis dup\u0103 alegerile din noiembrie, \u00een contextul unei posibile prelu\u0103ri a Congresului de c\u0103tre democra\u0163i. Blocajele legislative ar putea \u00eempiedica implementarea m\u0103surilor fiscale care sus\u0163in cre\u015fterea economic\u0103, iar stimulentul ar putea lipsi \u00een 2027, a precizat economistul.<\/p>\n
\nPe de alt\u0103 parte, investi\u0163iile \u00een AI, care au impulsionat semnificativ economia, se apropie de v\u00e2rful lor \u00een 2026. Rosenberg subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 gigan\u0163i tehnologici precum Amazon, Google, Meta \u015fi Microsoft urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 cheltuiasc\u0103 aproape 600 de miliarde de dolari \u00een proiecte legate de AI. Aceste investi\u0163ii au generat aproximativ 90% din cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 recent\u0103, lu\u00e2nd \u00een considerare c\u0103 americanii s-au \u00eemboga\u0163it din evolu\u0163ia ac\u0163iunilor tehnologice.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eVom elimina dou\u0103 surse importante de sus\u0163inere anul viitor. Profita\u0163i de cre\u015fterea ac\u0163iunilor c\u00e2t mai dureaz\u0103\u201d, avertizeaz\u0103 economistul.<\/p>\n
\nRetragerea sprijinului fiscal \u015fi a celui legat de AI survine \u00eentr-un context de cre\u015ftere economic\u0103 fragil\u0103. PIB-ul real a \u00eenregistrat o cre\u015ftere anualizat\u0103 de 1,4% \u00een ultimul trimestru, comparativ cu 4,4% \u00een trimestrul anterior, conform datelor Bureau of Economic Analysis.<\/p>\n
\n \u00cen acela\u015fi timp, pia\u0163a muncii prezint\u0103 semne de sl\u0103biciune: angaj\u0103rile noi au \u00eencetinit, iar disponibiliz\u0103rile au crescut. Rata economiilor personale a sc\u0103zut la 3,6% la finalul anului trecut, \u00een sc\u0103dere cu 150 de puncte de baz\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de \u00eenceputul lui 2025.<\/p>\n
\nO corec\u0163ie semnificativ\u0103 a pie\u0163ei bursiere ar putea diminua efectul de avere \u015fi ar putea determina consumatorii s\u0103 reduc\u0103 cheltuielile, sporind riscul unei recesiuni.<\/p>\n
\n \u201eF\u0103r\u0103 cre\u015ftere a locurilor de munc\u0103, f\u0103r\u0103 cre\u015ftere a veniturilor. Oamenii ar fi nevoi\u0163i s\u0103 cheltuiasc\u0103 \u00een conformitate cu veniturile reale\u201d, avertizeaz\u0103 Rosenberg.<\/p>\n
\nPreviziunile de recesiune \u015fi avertismentele privind stagfla\u0163ia revin pe agenda Wall Street, alimentate de volatilitatea pie\u0163elor generat\u0103 \u015fi de conflictele geopolitice, inclusiv r\u0103zboiul din Iran, care amplific\u0103 incertitudinile economice globale.<\/p>\n
\nEconomia american\u0103, sus\u0163inut\u0103 \u00een ultimii ani de politici fiscale expansive \u015fi investi\u0163ii masive \u00een tehnologie, se confrunt\u0103 astfel cu perspectiva unei perioade de ajustare dificil\u0103, \u00een care angaj\u0103rile, salariile \u015fi pie\u0163ele de capital ar putea suferi corec\u0163ii semnificative.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Economia Statelor Unite ar putea intra \u00eentr-o recesiune sever\u0103 \u00een 2027, dup\u0103 mai mul\u0163i ani de cre\u015ftere robust\u0103, avertizeaz\u0103 David Rosenberg, economist de top \u015fi pre\u015fedinte al Rosenberg Research. Potrivit acestuia, dou\u0103 motoare esen\u0163iale care au sus\u0163inut expansiunea, stimulul fiscal semnificativ \u015fi investi\u0163iile masive \u00een inteligen\u0163a artificial\u0103, urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 se epuizeze, l\u0103s\u00e2nd economia vulnerabil\u0103, noteaz\u0103 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[9329,24371,246,188,13726,179,32558],"class_list":["post-245966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-angajari","tag-corectii","tag-crestere","tag-economie","tag-economist","tag-recesiune","tag-suferinta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=245966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/245966\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=245966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=245966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=245966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}