\nUn nou raport avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 presiunile demografice vor provoca o sc\u0103dere semnificativ\u0103 a nivelului de trai \u00een mari regiuni ale Europei \u015fi nu numai, pe fondul \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nirii accelerate a popula\u0163iei, care oblig\u0103 guvernele s\u0103 ia \u00een calcul m\u0103suri dure precum cre\u015fterea v\u00e2rstei de pensionare, scrie Financial Times.<\/p>\n
\nBanca European\u0103 pentru Reconstruc\u0163ie \u015fi Dezvoltare (BERD) anun\u0163\u0103 c\u0103 sc\u0103derea natalit\u0103\u0163ii \u015fi diminuarea popula\u0163iei active vor t\u0103ia, \u00een medie, aproape 0,4 puncte procentuale din cre\u015fterea anual\u0103 a PIB-ului pe cap de locuitor \u00eentre 2024 \u015fi 2050 \u00een Europa de Est \u015fi regiunea Caucazului. Raportul, publicat mar\u0163i, arat\u0103 c\u0103 fenomenul love\u015fte \u00een special \u0163\u0103rile \u201eemergente\u201d \u00een care institu\u0163ia investe\u015fte \u2013 precum Polonia, Bulgaria \u015fi Slovenia \u2013 dar impactul se extinde \u015fi asupra economiilor dezvoltate, unde efectele \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nirii vor fi chiar mai dure.<\/p>\n
\nReducerile estimate pentru PIB-ul pe cap de locuitor \u00een perioada men\u0163ionat\u0103 sunt \u00eengrijor\u0103toare: un declin de 1,1 puncte procentuale \u00een Coreea de Sud, peste 0.7 \u00een Italia \u015fi Spania, \u00eentre 0.5 \u015fi 0.6 \u00een China \u015fi Japonia, respectiv 0.4 \u00een Germania, ca urmare a diminu\u0103rii for\u0163ei de munc\u0103.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eEuropa emergent\u0103 \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u015fte accelerat. Natalitatea sc\u0103zut\u0103 \u015fi for\u0163a de munc\u0103 \u00een declin vor pune din ce \u00een ce mai mult\u0103 presiune asupra poten\u0163ialului de cre\u015ftere economic\u0103\u201d, avertizeaz\u0103 Beata Javorcik, economista-\u015fef\u0103 a BERD.<\/p>\n
\nCre\u015fterea v\u00e2rstei de pensionare, stimularea migra\u0163iei \u015fi investi\u0163iile \u00een inova\u0163ie \u015fi tehnologie sunt m\u0103suri care ar putea atenua impactul, \u00eens\u0103 Javorcik subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 influen\u0163a politic\u0103 tot mai mare a electoratului v\u00e2rstnic risc\u0103 s\u0103 blocheze aceste reforme.<\/p>\n
\nFran\u0163a este exemplul perfect: reforma prin care v\u00e2rsta de pensionare urma s\u0103 creasc\u0103 de la 62 la 64 de ani a fost suspendat\u0103 din cauza opozi\u0163iei puternice. Iar alte guverne se confrunt\u0103 cu rezisten\u0163\u0103 similar\u0103 la politici menite s\u0103 rezolve criza demografic\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nConstat\u0103rile BERD confirm\u0103 un avertisment lansat la \u00eenceputul anului de OECD, potrivit c\u0103ruia presiunea demografic\u0103 va reduce ritmul de cre\u015ftere a PIB-ului pe cap de locuitor \u00een statele membre de la 1% anual \u00een anii 2010 la doar 0,6% pe an \u00een perioada 2024\u20132060.<\/p>\n
\nStudiul mai arat\u0103 \u015fi o schimbare notabil\u0103 a priorit\u0103\u0163ilor politice: 42% dintre persoanele peste 65 de ani \u2013 majoritatea \u00een regiunile \u00een care investe\u015fte BERD \u2013 vor ca guvernele s\u0103 orienteze cheltuielile publice c\u0103tre s\u0103n\u0103tate, iar 25% c\u0103tre pensii, \u00een timp ce doar 18% men\u0163ioneaz\u0103 educa\u0163ia. De asemenea, electoratul senior manifest\u0103 o opozi\u0163ie mai puternic\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de imigra\u0163ie, at\u00e2t \u00een economiile emergente, c\u00e2t \u015fi \u00een cele dezvoltate din Europa.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Un nou raport avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 presiunile demografice vor provoca o sc\u0103dere semnificativ\u0103 a nivelului de trai \u00een mari regiuni ale Europei \u015fi nu numai, pe fondul \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nirii accelerate a popula\u0163iei, care oblig\u0103 guvernele s\u0103 ia \u00een calcul m\u0103suri dure precum cre\u015fterea v\u00e2rstei de pensionare, scrie Financial Times. Banca European\u0103 pentru Reconstruc\u0163ie \u015fi Dezvoltare (BERD) anun\u0163\u0103 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[211,15146,9423,9426,438,7367,15026,10796,22405,8047,361,7931,7177,8316,13211],"class_list":["post-242722","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-amenintare","tag-avertizare","tag-blocaj","tag-declin","tag-europa","tag-forta-de-munca","tag-harta","tag-imbatranire","tag-natalitate","tag-nivel-de-trai","tag-pensionari","tag-pib","tag-populatie","tag-reducere","tag-reforme"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242722","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=242722"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242722\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=242722"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=242722"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=242722"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}