\nDatele INS privind infla\u0163ia din august sunt o surpriz\u0103 nepl\u0103cut\u0103, rata anual\u0103 acceler\u00e2nd la 9,9% de la 7,8% \u00een iulie, peste a\u015ftept\u0103rile anali\u015ftilor, \u00een condi\u0163ia \u00een care media sondajului Bloomberg a fost de 9,4%, arat\u0103 o analiz\u0103 realizat\u0103 de Erste Group, proprietarul BCR.<\/p>\n
\nErste estima anterior o infla\u0163ie de 9,2% \u00een august.<\/p>\n
\n\u201dUn factor cheie \u00een august a fost cre\u015fterea at\u00e2t a TVA-ului, c\u00e2t \u015fi a accizelor, precum \u015fi gradul \u00een care aceste major\u0103ri au fost transferate c\u0103tre consumatori. Datele sugereaz\u0103 un transfer al cre\u015fterii TVA mai ridicat dec\u00e2t cel anticipat, estimat la 80-90% comparativ cu ipoteza noastr\u0103 anterioar\u0103 de 60-70%, bazat\u0103 pe tiparele istorice. Infla\u0163ia de baz\u0103 a accelerat, de asemenea, semnificativ, ajung\u00e2nd la 7,9% an\/an \u00een august de la 5,8% anterior, dep\u0103\u015find din nou a\u015ftept\u0103rile noastre\u201d, spun anali\u015ftii Erste.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen urma noilor date, Erste a decis s\u0103 revizuiasc\u0103 prognoza de infla\u0163ie pentru sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului la 9,7%, fa\u0163\u0103 de 8,8% c\u00e2t anticipa anterior.<\/p>\n
\n\u201dEstim\u0103m c\u0103 infla\u0163ia va atinge v\u00e2rful \u00een septembrie \u015fi exist\u0103 \u015fanse mari s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la dou\u0103 cifre. Privind spre 2026, ne men\u0163inem prognoza de 3,7%, anticip\u00e2nd o decelerare puternic\u0103 \u00een august, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce efectele \u015focurilor recente de ofert\u0103 vor disp\u0103rea din baza statistic\u0103\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nDe asemnea, Erste se a\u015fteapt\u0103 ca dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eencheie 2025 la 6,50%.<\/p>\n
\n\u201dDe\u015fi anticip\u0103m c\u0103 economia va continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103 mult sub poten\u0163ial \u00een urm\u0103toarele patru trimestre, nu ne a\u015ftept\u0103m la reduceri de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd nu va exista mai mult\u0103 claritate cu privire la perspectiva infla\u0163iei \u015fi un grad ridicat de \u00eencredere c\u0103 aceasta va reveni \u00een intervalul-\u0163int\u0103. Credem c\u0103 acest lucru este pu\u0163in probabil s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple \u00eenainte de Raportul asupra infla\u0163iei din februarie 2026, moment \u00een care vedem posibilitatea primei reduceri a ratei dup\u0103 o pauz\u0103 prelungit\u0103\u201d. <\/p>\n
\nDatele de ast\u0103zi ale INS dep\u0103\u015fesc ultima proiec\u0163ie de infla\u0163ie a BNR, publicat\u0103 \u00een august. Aceast\u0103 discrepan\u0163\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 implice un parcurs al infla\u0163iei pe termen scurt mai ridicat dec\u00e2t cel anticipat de Banca Na\u0163ional\u0103, ceea ce \u00eent\u0103re\u015fte opinia Erste c\u0103 reducerile de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 vor fi fezabile abia anul viitor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Datele INS privind infla\u0163ia din august sunt o surpriz\u0103 nepl\u0103cut\u0103, rata anual\u0103 acceler\u00e2nd la 9,9% de la 7,8% \u00een iulie, peste a\u015ftept\u0103rile anali\u015ftilor, \u00een condi\u0163ia \u00een care media sondajului Bloomberg a fost de 9,4%, arat\u0103 o analiz\u0103 realizat\u0103 de Erste Group, proprietarul BCR. Erste estima anterior o infla\u0163ie de 9,2% \u00een august. \u201dUn factor cheie […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7734,23794,7930,184],"class_list":["post-240119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-analisti","tag-august","tag-erste","tag-inflatie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=240119"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/240119\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=240119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=240119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=240119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}