{"id":238951,"date":"2025-07-31T16:29:41","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T16:29:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=238951"},"modified":"2025-07-31T16:29:41","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T16:29:41","slug":"coface-in-timp-ce-datoria-globala-creste-vertiginos-la-102-trilioane-de-dolari-austeritatea-nu-provoaca-sistematic-revolte-in-tarile-emergente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=238951","title":{"rendered":"Coface: \u00cen timp ce datoria global\u0103 cre\u015fte vertiginos, la 102 trilioane de dolari, austeritatea nu provoac\u0103 sistematic revolte \u00een \u0163\u0103rile emergente"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u00cen fa\u0163a datoriilor galopante \u015fi cu o presiune tot mai mare pentru consolidarea finan\u0163elor publice, austeritatea devine norma \u00een multe \u0163\u0103ri emergente \u015fi \u00een curs de dezvoltare. Cu toate acestea, contrar credin\u0163ei populare, aceste m\u0103suri nu declan\u015feaz\u0103 sistematic valuri de proteste, arat\u0103 o analiz\u0103 realizat\u0103 de COFACE.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte Rom\u00e2nia, care se confrunt\u0103 cu cel mai mare deficit bugetar din UE, \u0163ara este preg\u0103tit\u0103 s\u0103 pun\u0103 \u00een aplicare al doilea pachet de m\u0103suri fiscale \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu jum\u0103tatea lunii august.&nbsp; Introdus pentru a reduce deficitul de peste 9% din PIB, acest pachet va pune presiune pe peisajul social, economic \u015fi politic local.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u201cRom\u00e2nia ar urma s\u0103 parcurg\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103torii ani un traseu sinuos pentru care consolidarea fiscal\u0103 este \u2013 putem spune \u2013 o \u201eStea a Nordului\u201d. &nbsp;Aceast\u0103 direc\u0163ie va reclama din partea factorului politic provocarea de a defini nu doar o strategie fezabil\u0103, dar \u015fi abilitatea de a ob\u0163ine \u015fi apoi, ap\u0103ra,&nbsp;un contract social cu toate for\u0163ele impactate (spa\u0163iul corporativ, popula\u0163ie, sindicate). Provocarea ar veni din orizontul lung de timp pentru care trebuie securizat acest contract social respectiv cel pu\u0163in 4-5 ani. &nbsp;\u00cen acela\u015fi sens, condi\u0163ia sine qua non pentru ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 reu\u015feasc\u0103 o constituie stabilitatea politic\u0103. \u00cen absen\u0163a acesteia, orice narativ cu privire la m\u0103surile de consolidare fiscal\u0103, precum \u015fi orice execu\u0163ie a acestei strategii (oric\u00e2t de bine articulate \u201epe h\u00e2rtie\u201d) vor c\u0103l\u0103tori pe o ghea\u0163\u0103 foarte sub\u0163ire, expun\u00e2nd Rom\u00e2nia la riscul de a nu ajunge la destina\u0163ia dorit\u0103, cu implica\u0163ii asupra rating-ului suveran, a costurilor de finan\u0163are, precum \u015fi a trac\u0163iunii \u00een afaceri \u015fi apeten\u0163ei investi\u0163ionale,\u201d a declarat Bogdan Nichi\u015foiu, Regional (Central &#038; Eastern Europe) Enhanced Information Manager.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong>Austeritatea: un r\u0103spuns global la criza datoriilor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nDe la criza financiar\u0103 din 2008, datoria public\u0103 mondial\u0103 aproape s-a dublat, ating\u00e2nd un nivel record de <strong>102.000 de miliarde de dolari \u00een 2024<\/strong>. Aceast\u0103 cre\u015ftere este deosebit de pronun\u0163at\u0103 \u00een economiile \u00een curs de dezvoltare, unde datoria a crescut de dou\u0103 ori mai rapid dec\u00e2t \u00een \u0163\u0103rile avansate. Costul \u00een cre\u015ftere al datoriei indic\u0103 apari\u0163ia unui val de austeritate sub form\u0103 de reduceri bugetare sau cre\u015fteri ale impozitelor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<img decoding=\"async\" alt=\"\" src=\"http:\/\/storage0.dms.mpinteractiv.ro\/media\/401\/341\/5531\/22868528\/2\/screenshot-2025-07-31-121842.png?height=295&#038;width=640\" style=\"width: 640px; height: 295px;\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nSurse: FMI, Coface. E\u015fantion de 128 de economii emergente \u015fi \u00een curs de dezvoltare.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong>O realitate contrastant\u0103 \u00eentre regiuni \u015fi \u0163\u0103ri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nImpactul austerit\u0103\u0163ii asupra stabilit\u0103\u0163ii sociale variaz\u0103 considerabil de la o regiune la alta \u015fi poate fi uneori profund destabilizator. \u00cen Ecuador, de exemplu, eliminarea subven\u0163iilor pentru combustibil \u00een 2019 a paralizat \u0163ara timp de zece zile, for\u0163\u00e2nd guvernul s\u0103 dea \u00eenapoi. \u00cen Kenya, cre\u015fterea impozitelor \u00een 2024 a provocat revolte care au dus la luarea cu asalt a Parlamentului, for\u0163\u00e2ndu-l pe pre\u015fedintele Ruto s\u0103 retrag\u0103 legea finan\u0163elor \u015fi s\u0103 intre \u00een dialog cu opozi\u0163ia.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nCu toate acestea, ultimul studiu Coface arat\u0103 c\u0103 m\u0103surile de austeritate nu declan\u015feaz\u0103 sistematic tulbur\u0103ri sociale. \u00cen \u0163\u0103rile cu venituri mici din Africa \u015fi Orientul Mijlociu, punerea \u00een aplicare a planurilor de ajustare fiscal\u0103 este adesea \u00eenso\u0163it\u0103 de o sc\u0103dere a protestelor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong>Ponderea inegalit\u0103\u0163ii \u015fi a guvernan\u0163ei<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nAcceptarea sau respingerea austerit\u0103\u0163ii depinde \u00een mare m\u0103sur\u0103 de nivelul de inegalitate \u015fi de \u00eencrederea \u00een institu\u0163ii. \u00cen \u0163\u0103rile cu disparit\u0103\u0163i sociale accentuate \u015fi plase de siguran\u0163\u0103 slabe, tensiunile sunt mai frecvente, dup\u0103 cum arat\u0103 situa\u0163ia actual\u0103 din Kenya. \u00cen schimb, \u00een contextele \u00een care guvernan\u0163a se \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163e\u015fte, calmul poate fi restabilit: \u00een Sri Lanka, dup\u0103 o criz\u0103 politic\u0103 major\u0103 \u00een 2022, sosirea unui nou guvern anticorup\u0163ie \u00een 2024 a contribuit la reducerea tensiunilor.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong>Reduceri sau impozite: alegeri care conteaz\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nNatura m\u0103surilor de austeritate influen\u0163eaz\u0103, de asemenea, reac\u0163iile sociale. \u00cen America Latin\u0103, unde mai mult de 90% din planuri includ cre\u015fteri de taxe, protestele sunt adesea imediate. \u00cen schimb, \u00een \u0163\u0103rile emergente din Asia \u015fi Europa, guvernele favorizeaz\u0103 \u00een general reducerea cheltuielilor publice, ceea ce tinde s\u0103 provoace mai pu\u0163ine reac\u0163ii sociale pe termen scurt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong>Unde se situeaz\u0103 Europa \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nAusteritatea \u00een Europa emergent\u0103 tinde s\u0103 se bazeze mai mult pe reducerea cheltuielilor. Totu\u015fi, \u00een toate regiunile, consolidarea fiscal\u0103 combin\u0103 de obicei at\u00e2t cre\u015fterea veniturilor, c\u00e2t \u015fi reducerea cheltuielilor. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte tulbur\u0103rile sociale, definite ca fiind apari\u0163ia unor evenimente precum proteste de strad\u0103, revolte, demonstra\u0163ii majore \u015fi alte forme de tensiuni interne, Europa Emergent\u0103 nu a \u00eenregistrat astfel de evenimente 2 ani la r\u00e2nd (2023 \u015fi 2024), marc\u00e2nd o perioad\u0103 de calm.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cen fa\u0163a datoriilor galopante \u015fi cu o presiune tot mai mare pentru consolidarea finan\u0163elor publice, austeritatea devine norma \u00een multe \u0163\u0103ri emergente \u015fi \u00een curs de dezvoltare. Cu toate acestea, contrar credin\u0163ei populare, aceste m\u0103suri nu declan\u015feaz\u0103 sistematic valuri de proteste, arat\u0103 o analiz\u0103 realizat\u0103 de COFACE.&nbsp; \u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte Rom\u00e2nia, care se confrunt\u0103 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[16556,15208,246,80],"class_list":["post-238951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-austeritate","tag-coface","tag-crestere","tag-refuz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238951","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=238951"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238951\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=238951"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=238951"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=238951"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}