{"id":238312,"date":"2025-07-10T14:19:28","date_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:19:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=238312"},"modified":"2025-07-10T14:19:28","modified_gmt":"2025-07-10T14:19:28","slug":"moodys-considera-masurile-fiscal-bugetare-recent-asumate-de-guvernul-roman-drept-un-pas-important-in-directia-echilibrarii-bugetare-agentia-estimeaza-ca-deficitul-fiscal-ar-putea-ajunge-la-78-din","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=238312","title":{"rendered":"Moody&#8217;s consider\u0103 m\u0103surile fiscal-bugetare recent asumate de Guvernul rom\u00e2n drept &#8220;un pas important&#8221; \u00een direc\u0163ia echilibr\u0103rii bugetare. Agen\u0163ia estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 deficitul fiscal ar putea ajunge la 7,8% din PIB \u00een 2025 \u015fi 6,1% din PIB \u00een 2026, prognoz\u0103 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163it\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de cea anterioar\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\n<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">Agen\u0163ia interna\u0163ional\u0103 de rating Moody&#8217;s consider\u0103 m\u0103surile fiscal-bugetare recent asumate de Guvernul rom\u00e2n&nbsp; drept &#8220;un pas important&#8221; \u00een direc\u0163ia echilibr\u0103rii bugetare, preciz\u00e2nd c\u0103 planul&nbsp;&nbsp;ar trebui s\u0103 reduc\u0103 deficitul \u015fi s\u0103 \u00eencetineasc\u0103 cre\u015fterea datoriei publice mai repede dec\u00e2t anticipa anterior, potrivit celui mai recent raport al agen\u0163iei, publicat pe 9 iulie, citat de Ministerul de Finan\u0163e.<\/span><\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nPotrivit agen\u0163iei, pachetul fiscal asumat s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta va genera o consolidare de aproximativ&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">0,6% din PIB pentru 2025<\/span>, contribu\u0163ia semnificativ\u0103 venind din majorarea cotelor TVA \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 1 august 2025.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nPentru&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">2026<\/span>, Moody&#8217;s estimeaz\u0103 o consolidare bugetar\u0103 de circa&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">3% din PIB<\/span>, ca efect cumulat al m\u0103surilor adoptate \u00een 2025 \u015fi al celor care se vor aplica din 2026 (majorarea impozitelor pe dividende \u015fi plafonarea index\u0103rii salariilor \u015fi pensiilor din sectorul public).<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nTotodat\u0103, agen\u0163ia subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 implementarea complet\u0103 \u015fi eficient\u0103 a m\u0103surilor \u015fi men\u0163inerea disciplinei fiscale vor fi esen\u0163iale pentru revenirea pe traiectoria fiscal-bugetar\u0103, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere amploarea consolid\u0103rii planificate.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\n<strong><span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">Principalele recomand\u0103ri \u015fi provoc\u0103ri semnalate de Moody&#8217;s:&nbsp;<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" trebuchet=\"\">\n<li box-sizing:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong><span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">Aderarea strict\u0103 la \u0163intele fiscale<\/span><\/strong>: Moody&#8217;s subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 respectarea cu stricte\u0163e a \u0163intelor fiscale stabilite este esen\u0163ial\u0103 pentru succesul programului de consolidare. Angajamentul ferm fa\u0163\u0103 de obiectivele bugetare este considerat crucial pentru a men\u0163ine credibilitatea fiscal\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei \u015fi pentru a asigura o reducere durabil\u0103 a deficitului. Agen\u0163ia avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 orice deviere de la planul asumat ar putea submina eforturile de stabilizare \u015fi ar putea exercita presiuni descendente suplimentare asupra ratingului suveran al \u0163\u0103rii.<\/li>\n<li box-sizing:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\"><strong>Gestionarea provoc\u0103rilor de implementar<\/strong>e<\/span>: Agen\u0163ia de rating atrage aten\u0163ia asupra faptului c\u0103 implementarea complet\u0103 \u015fi eficient\u0103 a pachetului de m\u0103suri fiscale va fi o&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">provocare semnificativ\u0103<\/span>. Moody&#8217;s identific\u0103 riscul ca unele dintre m\u0103surile planificate s\u0103 nu genereze contribu\u0163ia estimat\u0103 la reducerea deficitului, fie din cauza unor deficien\u0163e \u00een execu\u0163ie, fie din cauza unor condi\u0163ii economice neprev\u0103zute. \u00cen acest context, recomandarea este ca Guvernul s\u0103 fie preg\u0103tit s\u0103 realizeze&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">ajust\u0103ri<\/span>&nbsp;dac\u0103 este necesar, pentru a se asigura c\u0103 obiectivele fiscale sunt atinse \u015fi programul de consolidare r\u0103m\u00e2ne pe traiectoria stabilit\u0103.<\/li>\n<li box-sizing:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong><span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">Implementarea pachetului secundar \u015fi a reformelor PNRR<\/span><\/strong>: Moody&#8217;s consider\u0103 implementarea integral\u0103 a celui de-al doilea pachet de m\u0103suri fiscale \u015fi a reformelor prev\u0103zute \u00een Planul Na\u0163ional de Redresare \u015fi Rezilien\u0163\u0103 (PNRR) ca fiind crucial\u0103 pentru o consolidare fiscal\u0103 suplimentar\u0103 \u015fi, implicit, pentru accesarea fondurilor europene.<\/li>\n<li box-sizing:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<strong><span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">Maximizarea absorb\u0163iei fondurilor UE<\/span>: <\/strong>Accesarea fondurilor din PNRR \u015fi din bugetul UE este esen\u0163ial\u0103 pentru sus\u0163inerea cre\u015fterii economice, mai ales \u00een contextul impactului programului de consolidare fiscal\u0103. Conform raportului Moody&#8217;s, maximizarea absorb\u0163iei acestor fonduri va atenua presiunile economice pe termen scurt \u015fi va contribui la realizarea poten\u0163ialului de cre\u015ftere pe termen mediu, facilit\u00e2nd \u00een acela\u015fi timp eforturile de ajustare fiscal\u0103.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nDac\u0103 m\u0103surile fiscal &#8211; bugetare sunt implementate integral, Moody&#8217;s anticipeaz\u0103 c\u0103 deficitul fiscal al Rom\u00e2niei ar putea ajunge la&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">7,8% din PIB \u00een 2025<\/span>&nbsp;\u015fi&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">6,1% din PIB \u00een 2026. Aceasta reprezint\u0103 o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire fa\u0163\u0103 de prognozele anterioare ale agen\u0163iei<\/span>, care indicau un deficit de 8,3% \u015fi, respectiv, 7,7% din PIB.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\n\u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte datoria guvernamental\u0103, de\u015fi aceasta ar continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">62,6% din PIB la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului 2026<\/span>&nbsp;(de la 54,8% \u00een 2024), Moody&#8217;s estimeaz\u0103 acum c\u0103 datoria se va plafona la aproximativ&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">66,5% din PIB \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2029<\/span>. Aceast\u0103 proiec\u0163ie este sub nivelul maxim de aproape 71% din PIB prognozat \u00een martie, c\u00e2nd perspectiva Rom\u00e2niei a fost schimbat\u0103 \u00een negativ\u0103.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nAgen\u0163ia de rating apreciaz\u0103, de asemenea, inten\u0163ia Guvernului de a adopta un&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">al doilea pachet de m\u0103suri<\/span>, p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul lunii iulie, care ar putea include noi m\u0103suri fiscale at\u00e2t pentru generarea de venituri c\u00e2t \u015fi pentru reducerea cheltuielilor de investi\u0163ii \u00een 2025 \u015fi 2026. Acestea, \u00eempreun\u0103 cu reforme \u00een guvernan\u0163a companiilor de stat \u015fi a agen\u0163iilor de reglementare, vor contribui suplimentar la reducerea deficitului, subliniaz\u0103 raportul.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nTotodat\u0103, analiza Moody\u0103s publicat\u0103 pe 9 iulie face trimitere la decizia de retrogradare a ratingului la Negativ din 14 martie, \u00een care se men\u0163iona c\u0103&nbsp;<span box-sizing:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\">decizia poate fi reversat\u0103 la Stabil<\/span>, dac\u0103 situa\u0163ia economic\u0103 se va \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163i.<\/p>\n<p box-sizing:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" margin-bottom:=\"\" margin-top:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" trebuchet=\"\">\nMai exact, dac\u0103 indicatorii lega\u0163i de sustenabilitatea datoriei publice nu se vor \u00eenr\u0103ut\u0103\u0163i at\u00e2t de mult pe c\u00e2t estima Moody\u2019s \u00een acel moment, ratingul Rom\u00e2niei poate fi readus la perspectiv\u0103 stabil\u0103.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Agen\u0163ia interna\u0163ional\u0103 de rating Moody&#8217;s consider\u0103 m\u0103surile fiscal-bugetare recent asumate de Guvernul rom\u00e2n&nbsp; drept &#8220;un pas important&#8221; \u00een direc\u0163ia echilibr\u0103rii bugetare, preciz\u00e2nd c\u0103 planul&nbsp;&nbsp;ar trebui s\u0103 reduc\u0103 deficitul \u015fi s\u0103 \u00eencetineasc\u0103 cre\u015fterea datoriei publice mai repede dec\u00e2t anticipa anterior, potrivit celui mai recent raport al agen\u0163iei, publicat pe 9 iulie, citat de Ministerul de Finan\u0163e. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[9646,251,411,10898,7931],"class_list":["post-238312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-agentie","tag-consolidare","tag-deficit","tag-masuri","tag-pib"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=238312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/238312\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=238312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=238312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=238312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}