{"id":233669,"date":"2025-01-31T13:24:12","date_gmt":"2025-01-31T13:24:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=233669"},"modified":"2025-01-31T13:24:12","modified_gmt":"2025-01-31T13:24:12","slug":"care-sunt-asteptarile-pentru-2025-ale-celor-care-misca-banii-in-romania-si-ce-vor-ei-de-la-guvernanti-36-cred-ca-economia-va-avea-un-ritm-de-crestere-in-1-si-15-iar-20-intre-15-si-2-jumatate-din","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=233669","title":{"rendered":"Care sunt a\u015ftept\u0103rile pentru 2025 ale celor care mi\u015fc\u0103 banii \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u015fi ce vor ei de la guvernan\u0163i: 36% cred c\u0103 economia va avea un ritm de cre\u015ftere \u00een 1% \u015fi 1,5%, iar 20% \u00eentre 1,5% \u015fi 2%. Jum\u0103tate din r\u00e2ndul celor care au participat la sondajul CFA v\u0103d Robor la finalul anului \u00eentre 5% \u015fi 5,5%"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nCirca 100 de investitori, anali\u015fti, administratori de investi\u0163ii cu miliarde de lei pe m\u00e2n\u0103, autorit\u0103\u0163i \u015fi reprezentan\u0163i ai mediului de business din Rom\u00e2nia au participat joi sear\u0103 la un sondaj al CFA Rom\u00e2nia cu privire la a\u015ftept\u0103rile pentru economie \u00een anul 2025 \u015fi \u00een perioada urm\u0103toare.<\/p>\n

\nPractic, cei mi\u015fc\u0103 banii \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u2013 \u015fi ale c\u0103ror decizii pot influen\u0163a bursa, economia \u015fi mediul de afaceri \u2013 au oferit r\u0103spunsuri la 15 \u00eentreb\u0103ri formulate de comunitatea CFA \u00een cadrul CFA Forecast Dinner. A\u015ftept\u0103rile celor care au participat la evenimentul de la sediul BNR pot indica direc\u0163ia \u00een care se \u00eendreapt\u0103 economia \u015fi cum vor evolua principalii indicatori macroeconomici.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nMai jos, cele 15 \u00eentreb\u0103ri \u015fi cum au r\u0103spuns participan\u0163ii. Panelul a fost moderat de Mihai Purc\u0103rea, CFA, director general BRD Asset Management.<\/p>\n

\n1.     Unde vede\u0163i cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 \u00een acest an? \u00centre 1% \u015fi 1,5% au ales 36%; \u00eentre 1,5% \u015fi 2% au ales 20%; \u00eentre 0,5% \u015fi 1% au ales 16%; \u00eentre 0% \u015fi 0,5% au ales 14%. \u201eDeci oarecum \u00een linie cu 2024. Nimeni nu vede recesiune\u201d, spune Mihai Purc\u0103rea.<\/p>\n

\n2.     Unde vede\u0163i infla\u0163ia la finalul lui 2025? \u00centre 4% \u015fi 5% au votat 47%; \u00eentre 5% \u015fi 6% au votat 33%; sub 4% au votat 11%. \u201eDeci o accelerare a infla\u0163iei fa\u0163\u0103 de momentul curent.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n3.     Cursul de schimb la finalul lui 2025? \u00centre 5 lei \u015fi 5,10 lei au votat 56%; \u00eentre 4,9 lei \u015fi 5 lei au votat 30%. U\u015foar\u0103 depreciere a cursului de schimb; \u00eentre 5,1 \u015fi 5,2 lei au votat 10%. \u201eSunt riscuri, dar suntem pozitivi.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n4.     ROBOR 3 luni. \u00centre 5% \u015fi 5,5% au votat 44%; \u00eentre 5,5% \u015fi 6% au votat 36%; \u00eentre 6% \u015fi 6,5% au votat 14%. \u201eProbabil, dac\u0103 vom avea downgrade, risc\u0103m s\u0103 ajungem la cei care au votat 14%.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n5.     Randamentele titlurilor de stat pe 5 ani \u00een lei. \u00centre 6,5% \u015fi 7% au votat 37%; \u00eentre 7% \u015fi 7,5% au votat 26%; \u00eentre 6% \u015fi 6,5% au votat 16%.<\/p>\n

\n6.     Evolu\u0163ia pentru BET-XT la final de 2025. \u00centre 0% \u015fi 10% au votat 47%; \u00eentre 10% \u015fi 20% au votat 24%; \u00eentre 0% \u015fi 10% sc\u0103dere au votat 20%. \u201eProbabil c\u0103 \u00eencetinirea economic\u0103 se va reflecta \u015fi \u00een rezultatele companiilor.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n7.     Ce clase de active vor livra cele mai mari randamente? MSCI World TR au votat 47%; aur au votat 28%; commodities au votat 12%. \u201eAlocarea potrivit\u0103 pentru anul urm\u0103tor. Surprinz\u0103tor, destul de negativ\u0103 sala pentru zona de ac\u0163iuni \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, 4% din cei prezen\u0163i.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n8.     Infla\u0163ia medie \u00een urm\u0103torii 5 ani \u00een SUA \u015fi UE? \u00centre 2% \u015fi 3% infla\u0163ie medie au r\u0103spuns 57%; \u00eentre 3% \u015fi 4% au r\u0103spuns 27%; \u00eentre 1% \u015fi 2% au r\u0103spuns 9%.<\/p>\n

\n9.     Randamentul mediu pe urm\u0103torii 5 ani pe zona de ac\u0163iuni. MSCI World Total Return a avut 8,5% anual, \u00een medie, din 1990 \u00eencoace. Oamenii au votat: \u00eentre 6% \u015fi 9% au ales 50%; \u00eentre 3% \u015fi 6% au votat 22%; \u00eentre 9% \u015fi 12% au votat 18%.<\/p>\n

\n10.  Randamentele titlurilor de stat americane la finalul lui 2030? Acum sunt \u00een jur de 4%. Oamenii au votat: \u00eentre 3% \u015fi 4% \u2013 60%; \u00eentre 2% \u015fi 3% \u2013 15%; \u00eentre 4% \u015fi 5% \u2013 aproape 15%.<\/p>\n

\n11.  Riscurile pentru Rom\u00e2nia \u00een urm\u0103torii doi ani: Economic (infla\u0163ie, recesiune, \u015fomaj) \u2013 47%; Geopolitic (r\u0103zboi, terorism) \u2013 26%; Tehnologic (dezinformare) \u2013 20%.<\/p>\n

\n12.  Aceea\u015fi \u00eentrebare pe orizont de 10 ani: Tehnologic (dezinformare, securitate cibernetic\u0103, AI) \u2013 33%; Social (migra\u0163ii, epidemii) \u2013 24%.<\/p>\n

\n13.  Pentru 2025, principalele riscuri pentru businessul rom\u00e2nesc: 40% \u2013 deficitele ridicate \u015fi riscul de retrogradare, precum \u015fi costuri mari; 35% \u2013 instabilitate politic\u0103; 21% \u2013 instabilitate fiscal\u0103.<\/p>\n

\n14.  Ce v-a\u0163i dori de la guvernan\u0163i? Stabilitate fiscal\u0103 \u2013 35%; Stat mai eficient \u2013 24%; Reforma educa\u0163iei \u2013 20%; Infrastructur\u0103 \u2013 14%.<\/p>\n

\n15.  \u00centrebare generat\u0103 de AI: Cum va ar\u0103ta inteligen\u0163a artificial\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030? 30% au ales c\u0103 AI va face predic\u0163ii mai bune dec\u00e2t CFA.<\/p>\n

\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Circa 100 de investitori, anali\u015fti, administratori de investi\u0163ii cu miliarde de lei pe m\u00e2n\u0103, autorit\u0103\u0163i \u015fi reprezentan\u0163i ai mediului de business din Rom\u00e2nia au participat joi sear\u0103 la un sondaj al CFA Rom\u00e2nia cu privire la a\u015ftept\u0103rile pentru economie \u00een anul 2025 \u015fi \u00een perioada urm\u0103toare. Practic, cei mi\u015fc\u0103 banii \u00een Rom\u00e2nia \u2013 \u015fi ale […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[14742,188,22824,98],"class_list":["post-233669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-asteptari","tag-economie","tag-participare","tag-romania"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233669","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=233669"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/233669\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=233669"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=233669"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=233669"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}