{"id":232597,"date":"2024-12-18T10:06:25","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T10:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=232597"},"modified":"2024-12-18T10:06:25","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T10:06:25","slug":"fitch-ratings-a-revizuit-perspectiva-ratingului-pentru-datoria-suverana-pe-termen-lung-in-valuta-straina-a-romaniei-de-la-stabila-la-negativa-si-a-confirmat-ratingu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=232597","title":{"rendered":"Fitch Ratings a revizuit perspectiva ratingului pentru datoria suveran\u0103 pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103 str\u0103in\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei de la \u201eStabil\u0103\u201d la \u201eNegativ\u0103\u201d \u015fi a confirmat ratingul la \u201eBBB-\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nFitch Ratings a revizuit perspectiva ratingului pentru datoria suveran\u0103 pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103 str\u0103in\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei de la \u201eStabil\u0103\u201d la \u201eNegativ\u0103\u201d \u015fi a confirmat ratingul la \u201eBBB-\u201d.<\/p>\n

\nUrm\u0103toarea revizuire programat\u0103 pentru ratingul Rom\u00e2niei este \u00een februarie 2025, dar Fitch consider\u0103 c\u0103 evolu\u0163iile din \u0163ar\u0103 justific\u0103 o astfel de abatere de la calendar, iar ra\u0163ionamentul este detaliat \u00een prima parte (factori cu greutate mare) a sec\u0163iunii “Factori cheie ai ratingului” de mai jos.<\/p>\n

\nFactori cheie ai ratingului<\/h3>\n

\nRevizuirea perspectivei reflect\u0103 urm\u0103torii factori cheie \u015fi greutatea lor relativ\u0103:<\/p>\n

\nRidicat\u0103<\/h4>\n
    \n
  1. \n

    \nIncertitudinea politic\u0103 afecteaz\u0103 perspectivele fiscale:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • \nIncertitudinea politic\u0103 a crescut semnificativ \u015fi este de a\u015fteptat s\u0103 aib\u0103 un impact negativ asupra consolid\u0103rii fiscale.<\/li>\n
    • \nAlegerile preziden\u0163iale au fost anulate de Curtea Constitu\u0163ional\u0103 dup\u0103 victoria surprinz\u0103toare a candidatului ultrana\u0163ionalist C\u0103lin Georgescu, din cauza acuza\u0163iilor de interferen\u0163\u0103 electoral\u0103 str\u0103in\u0103\/rus\u0103.<\/li>\n
    • \nMandatul actualului pre\u015fedinte, Klaus Iohannis, a fost extins p\u00e2n\u0103 la alegerea unui nou pre\u015fedinte.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
    • \n

      \nParlament mai divizat:<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \nAlegerile parlamentare au dus la o cre\u015ftere a partidelor de extrem\u0103 dreapta, anti-UE, reflect\u00e2nd polarizarea societ\u0103\u0163ii.<\/li>\n
      • \nSe estimeaz\u0103 formarea unei coali\u0163ii pro-europene \u00eenainte de sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului 2024, dar durabilitatea acesteia este incert\u0103.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
      • \n

        \nDeficite bugetare mari:<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        • \nSe estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 deficitul bugetar al guvernului general va cre\u015fte la 8,2% din PIB \u00een 2024, fa\u0163\u0103 de 7,2% prognozat anterior.<\/li>\n
        • \nCre\u015fterea rapid\u0103 a cheltuielilor, inclusiv salariile din sectorul public \u015fi cre\u015fterile de pensii nesustenabile, contribuie semnificativ la acest deficit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
        • \n

          \nConsolidare fiscal\u0103 dificil\u0103:<\/strong><\/p>\n

            \n
          • \nFitch estimeaz\u0103 un deficit guvernamental de 7,5% din PIB \u00een 2025 \u015fi 6,8% \u00een 2026, mai mult dec\u00e2t dublul mediei actuale pentru ratingurile \u201eBBB\u201d.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
          • \n

            \nDatorie public\u0103 \u00een cre\u015ftere:<\/strong><\/p>\n

              \n
            • \nSe preconizeaz\u0103 o cre\u015ftere rapid\u0103 a datoriei publice raportate la PIB, de la 49% \u00een 2023 la 62% \u00een 2026 \u015fi aproximativ 70% p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2028.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              \nMedie<\/h4>\n
                \n
              1. \n

                \nDezechilibre externe mari:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                  \n
                • \nDeficitul de cont curent va cre\u015fte la 8% din PIB \u00een 2024, reflect\u00e2nd competitivitatea extern\u0103 slab\u0103 a economiei rom\u00e2ne\u015fti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
                • \n

                  \nCredibilitate politic\u0103 erodat\u0103:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    \n
                  • \nGuvernul vizeaz\u0103 ie\u015firea din procedura de deficit excesiv abia \u00een 2031, submin\u00e2nd credibilitatea m\u0103surilor fiscale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
                  • \n

                    \nCre\u015ftere economic\u0103 slab\u0103:<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • \nPIB-ul a sc\u0103zut cu -0,3% \u00een trimestrul III 2024, reflect\u00e2nd o \u00eencetinire semnificativ\u0103 a economiei.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      \nAlte factori care influen\u0163eaz\u0103 ratingul:<\/h3>\n
                        \n
                      • \nPuncte forte structurale:<\/strong> Apartenen\u0163a la UE, indicatori de guvernare peste medie \u015fi acces la fonduri europene.<\/li>\n
                      • \nSector bancar solid:<\/strong> Sistemul bancar este bine capitalizat \u015fi profitabil, cu o rat\u0103 sc\u0103zut\u0103 a creditelor neperformante (2,5%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        \nIndicatorii de guvernan\u0163\u0103 \u015fi stabilitate politic\u0103 ai Rom\u00e2niei sunt la un nivel moderat, dar incertitudinile actuale reprezint\u0103 riscuri semnificative.<\/p>\n

                        \n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Fitch Ratings a revizuit perspectiva ratingului pentru datoria suveran\u0103 pe termen lung \u00een valut\u0103 str\u0103in\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei de la \u201eStabil\u0103\u201d la \u201eNegativ\u0103\u201d \u015fi a confirmat ratingul la \u201eBBB-\u201d. Urm\u0103toarea revizuire programat\u0103 pentru ratingul Rom\u00e2niei este \u00een februarie 2025, dar Fitch consider\u0103 c\u0103 evolu\u0163iile din \u0163ar\u0103 justific\u0103 o astfel de abatere de la calendar, iar ra\u0163ionamentul […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7504,15057],"class_list":["post-232597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-rating","tag-revizuire"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232597","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=232597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/232597\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=232597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=232597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=232597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}