{"id":229414,"date":"2024-08-20T21:59:56","date_gmt":"2024-08-20T21:59:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=229414"},"modified":"2024-08-20T21:59:56","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T21:59:56","slug":"bnr-inflatia-va-cobori-la-4-in-decembrie-2024-si-la-34-la-final-de-2025-dar-incertitudini-semnificative-sunt-asociate-evolutiei-preturilor-energiei-si-alimentelor-cresterea-economica-va-accelera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=229414","title":{"rendered":"BNR: Inflatia va cobor\u00ee la 4% \u00een decembrie 2024 \u015fi la 3,4%  la final de 2025, dar incertitudini semnificative sunt asociate evolu\u0163iei pre\u0163urilor energiei \u015fi alimentelor. Cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 va accelera \u00een 2024-2025, sustinut\u0103 de consumul gospod\u0103riilor popula\u0163iei \u015fi investitii"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\nBanca National\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 inflatia va cobor\u00ee la 4% \u00ee<span>n decembrie 2024 \u015fi la 3,4%&nbsp; \u00een ultima lun\u0103 a anului 2025, conducerea BNR anunt\u00e2nd o <\/span><span>ameliorare a perspectivei \u00een raport cu prognoza precedent\u0103, mai cu seam\u0103 pe orizontul apropiat de timp, potrivit minutei \u015fedintei de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 din 7 august.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\n<span>Anterior, BNR estima un nivel de 4,9%&nbsp; la finele lui 2024 \u015fi de 3,5% la final de 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\n<span>D<\/span>escre\u015fterea va fi antrenat\u0103 pe mai departe prioritar de factorii pe partea ofertei, a c\u0103ror ac\u0163iune dezinfla\u0163ionist\u0103 va r\u0103m\u00e2ne mai intens\u0103 pe termen scurt dec\u00e2t s-a previzionat anterior, sub impactul efectelor de baz\u0103 dezinfla\u0163ioniste \u015fi al modific\u0103rilor legislative \u00een domeniul energiei aplicate \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu luna aprilie.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\nMembrii Consilului BNR au sesizat, totodat\u0103, c\u0103 efectele de baz\u0103 dezinfla\u0163ioniste se vor manifesta cu prec\u0103dere la nivelul subcomponentelor non-alimentare ale infla\u0163iei de baz\u0103, precum \u015fi pe segmentele pre\u0163uri administrate \u015fi combustibili, \u00een timp ce mici efecte de baz\u0103 de sens opus vor afecta \u00een perspectiv\u0103 apropiat\u0103 dinamica pre\u0163urilor alimentelor procesate, care va cunoa\u015fte astfel o inflexiune \u00een trimestrul III 2024, inclusiv sub influen\u0163a invers\u0103rii traiectoriei cota\u0163iilor unor materii prime agroalimentare.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\nIncertitudini semnificative sunt \u00eens\u0103 asociate evolu\u0163iei viitoare a pre\u0163urilor energiei \u015fi alimentelor, \u00een contextul modific\u0103rilor legislative din domeniu \u015fi al secetei prelungite din acest an, precum \u015fi perspectivei cota\u0163iilor \u0163i\u0163eiului \u015fi altor materii prime, \u00een condi\u0163iile escalad\u0103rii tensiunilor geopolitice, au subliniat membrii Consiliului.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\n\u00cen acela\u015fi timp, s-a observat c\u0103 presiunile infla\u0163ioniste ale factorilor fundamentali sunt a\u015fteptate s\u0103 persiste pe \u00eentregul orizont de prognoz\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 se atenueze doar u\u015for \u00een raport cu prima parte a anului curent \u015fi cu prognoza precedent\u0103, \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care, dup\u0103 o mic\u0103 restr\u00e2ngere \u00een semestrul II 2024, excedentul de cerere va r\u0103m\u00e2ne probabil aproape constant pe parcursul urm\u0103toarelor \u015fase trimestre, la o valoare semnificativ\u0103, marginal inferioar\u0103 celei previzionate anterior.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\nTotodat\u0103, dinamica anual\u0103 de dou\u0103 cifre a costului unitar cu for\u0163a de munc\u0103 din sectorul privat este anticipat\u0103 s\u0103-\u015fi prelungeasc\u0103 ascensiunea pe ansamblul anului curent \u015fi s\u0103 dep\u0103\u015feasc\u0103 astfel nivelul \u00een u\u015foar\u0103 sc\u0103dere prognozat anterior.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\nInfla\u0163ia de baz\u0103 va recepta \u00eens\u0103 \u015fi influen\u0163ele \u00eensemnate \u015fi tot mai pronun\u0163ate ale efectelor de baz\u0103 dezinfla\u0163ioniste anticipate s\u0103 se manifeste pe segmentele m\u0103rfuri nealimentare \u015fi servicii, care vor devansa cu mult influen\u0163ele de sens opus ce vor veni \u00een perspectiv\u0103 apropiat\u0103 din evolu\u0163ia dinamicii pre\u0163urilor alimentelor procesate. De asemenea, efecte dezinfla\u0163ioniste \u00een intensificare pe \u00eentregul orizont de prognoz\u0103 sunt de a\u015fteptat din decelerarea cre\u015fterii pre\u0163urilor importurilor, dar mai cu seam\u0103 din descre\u015fterea anticipa\u0163iilor infla\u0163ioniste pe termen scurt, \u00eentr-un ritm chiar ceva mai alert dec\u00e2t \u00een proiec\u0163ia precedent\u0103.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\n\u00cen aceste condi\u0163ii, rata anual\u0103 a infla\u0163iei CORE2 ajustat va continua probabil s\u0103 scad\u0103 mai alert dec\u00e2t dinamica infla\u0163iei<span>&nbsp;<\/span><em>headline<\/em><span>&nbsp;<\/span>\u015fi dec\u00e2t s-a previzionat anterior, cobor\u00e2nd la 4,6% \u00een decembrie 2024, la 3,5 %&nbsp; \u00een ultima lun\u0103 din 2025 \u015fi la 3,4% la finele orizontului proiec\u0163iei, comparativ cu valorile de 5,3%, 3,7% \u015fi respectiv 3,5% indicate de prognoza precedent\u0103 pentru acelea\u015fi momente de referin\u0163\u0103.<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\n\u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte cre\u015fterea economic\u0103, BNR se a\u015fteapt\u0103ca ea s\u0103 accelereze pe ansamblul intervalului 2024-2025, de\u015fi ceva mai pu\u0163in dec\u00e2t \u00een prognoza precedent\u0103, pe fondul deceler\u0103rii infla\u0163iei \u015fi al redres\u0103rii treptate a cererii externe, dar mai ales sub impactul conduitei politicii fiscale \u015fi al utiliz\u0103rii fondurilor europene aferente instrumentului<span>&nbsp;<\/span><em border:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" margin:=\"\" padding:=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\">Next Generation EU<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\nS-a observat c\u0103, similar previziunilor precedente, consumul gospod\u0103riilor popula\u0163iei este a\u015fteptat s\u0103 redevin\u0103 \u00een anul curent \u015fi s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2025 principalul determinant al avansului PIB, &nbsp;\u00een condi\u0163iile acceler\u0103rii semnificative a cre\u015fterii venitului disponibil real \u2013 sub influen\u0163a major\u0103rilor de salarii \u015fi transferuri sociale suprapuse traiectoriei descendente relativ mai joase a ratei infla\u0163iei \u2013, dar \u015fi \u00een contextul nivelurilor reale ale ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor la creditele \u015fi depozitele popula\u0163iei.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\nO contribu\u0163ie \u00eensemnat\u0103 la dinamica PIB va continua probabil s\u0103 vin\u0103 \u015fi din partea form\u0103rii brute de capital fix, a c\u0103rei cre\u015ftere este a\u015fteptat\u0103 s\u0103 \u00eencetineasc\u0103 totu\u015fi considerabil \u00een 2024-2025, dup\u0103 accelerarea puternic\u0103 din 2023, dar s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 alert\u0103 din perspectiv\u0103 istoric\u0103, pe fondul atragerii \u015fi utiliz\u0103rii unui volum important de fonduri europene, \u00eens\u0103 \u00een sc\u0103dere fa\u0163\u0103 de 2023 \u015fi \u00een contextul unor incertitudini \u00eensemnate asociate programelor \u015fi execu\u0163iilor bugetare, precum \u015fi tensiunilor geopolitice \u015fi evolu\u0163iilor economice din Europa, au remarcat membrii Consiliului. &nbsp;<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\n\u00cen schimb, evolu\u0163ia exportului net este a\u015fteptat\u0103 s\u0103 redevin\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 mai contrac\u0163ionist\u0103 \u00een 2024-2025 dec\u00e2t s-a anticipat anterior, dat\u0103 fiind perspectiva cre\u015fterii relativ mai pronun\u0163ate a dinamicii volumului importurilor de bunuri \u015fi servicii, \u00een corela\u0163ie cu decalajul de ritm dintre absorb\u0163ia intern\u0103 \u015fi cererea extern\u0103.<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\n\u00cen aceste condi\u0163ii, deficitul de cont curent \u00ee\u015fi va stopa probabil corec\u0163ia descendent\u0103 ca pondere \u00een PIB \u00een 2024-2025 \u015fi va r\u0103m\u00e2ne astfel semnificativ deasupra standardelor europene, continu\u00e2nd s\u0103 constituie o vulnerabilitate major\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 induc\u0103 riscuri la adresa infla\u0163iei, primei de risc suveran \u015fi, \u00een final, a sustenabilit\u0103\u0163ii cre\u015fterii economice, au subliniat membrii Consiliului.<\/p>\n<p -webkit-text-stroke-width:=\"\" 0px=\"\" background-color:=\"\" border:=\"\" color:=\"\" font-family:=\"\" font-size:=\"\" font-style:=\"\" font-variant-caps:=\"\" font-variant-ligatures:=\"\" font-weight:=\"\" letter-spacing:=\"\" margin:=\"\" orphans:=\"\" padding:=\"\" style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\" text-decoration-color:=\"\" text-decoration-style:=\"\" text-decoration-thickness:=\"\" text-indent:=\"\" text-transform:=\"\" vertical-align:=\"\" white-space:=\"\" widows:=\"\" word-spacing:=\"\">\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bnr.ro\/Minuta-%c8%99edin%c8%9bei-de-politica-monetara-a-Consiliului-de-administra%c8%9bie-al-Bancii-Na%c8%9bionale-a-Romaniei-din-7-august-2024-28233.aspx\"><strong>Vedeti aici minuta sedintei BNR <\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" text-align:=\"\">\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Banca National\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 inflatia va cobor\u00ee la 4% \u00een decembrie 2024 \u015fi la 3,4%&nbsp; \u00een ultima lun\u0103 a anului 2025, conducerea BNR anunt\u00e2nd o ameliorare a perspectivei \u00een raport cu prognoza precedent\u0103, mai cu seam\u0103 pe orizontul apropiat de timp, potrivit minutei \u015fedintei de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 din 7 august. Anterior, BNR estima un nivel [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[18255,10327,9696,23948,340],"class_list":["post-229414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-asteptare","tag-conditii","tag-efecte","tag-perspectiva","tag-preturi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229414","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=229414"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229414\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=229414"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=229414"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=229414"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}