{"id":229291,"date":"2024-08-15T09:23:45","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:23:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=229291"},"modified":"2024-08-15T09:23:45","modified_gmt":"2024-08-15T09:23:45","slug":"avertisment-cresterea-economica-a-fost-sub-asteptari-in-t2-iar-analistii-incep-sa-reduca-prognozele-pentru-tot-anul-scenariul-majorarii-taxelor-dupa-alegeri-devine-in-lumina-noilor-date-aproape-o","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=229291","title":{"rendered":"Avertisment: cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 a fost sub a\u015ftept\u0103ri \u00een T2, iar anali\u015ftii \u00eencep s\u0103 reduc\u0103 prognozele pentru tot anul. Scenariul major\u0103rii taxelor dup\u0103 alegeri devine, \u00een lumina noilor date, aproape o certitudine."},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\u2666 <\/span>Cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 de doar 0,8% anun\u0163at de INS pentru T2 2024 i-a surprins pe mai to\u0163i economi\u015ftii pentru c\u0103 datele lunare sugerau o cre\u015ftere \u00eentre 2 \u015fi 3% <\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n\"\"\u201eNea\u015fteptat de slabe\u201c acesta a fost re\u00adfrenul eco\u00adnomi\u015ftilor repetat ieri cu referire la datele furnizare de Statistic\u0103 privind cre\u015fterea PIB \u00een T2.<\/p>\n

\nIar mirarea este cu at\u00e2t mai mare cu c\u00e2t, fiind an electoral, guvernul a majorat pensii \u015fi salarii, nu s-a mai uitat la deficitul bugetar care va atinge \u00een acest an 7% din PIB, \u00een ciuda avertismentului guvernatorului BNR Mugur Is\u0103rescu \u015fi al altor economi\u015fti care au spus c\u0103 cheltuielile sunt sc\u0103pate de sub control. Banii \u015fi \u00eemprumuturile contractate de popula\u0163ie au \u0163inut consumul sus (plus 9,9% \u00een T2), dar nu au putut compensa alte sc\u0103deri pe industrie, construc\u0163ii, exporturi. \u00cen tot acest iure\u015f cu \u201emajor\u0103m taxe, nu le major\u0103m\u201c \u015fi cei care putea investi au fost mai re\u0163inu\u0163i (construc\u0163iile rezi\u00adden\u0163iale s-au pr\u0103bu\u015fit, practic).<\/p>\n

\nA\u015fa c\u0103 consumul a crescut, dar pe importuri ob\u0163inute cu bani \u00eemprumuta\u0163i, dup\u0103 cum spune Adrian Cod\u00eerla\u015fu, vice\u00adpre\u00ad\u00ad\u015fedintele CFA Rom\u00e2nia, care adaug\u0103: \u00cen lumina noilor date, cre\u015fterea probabil\u0103 \u00een 2024 va fi, pe tot anul, de 1%. A\u015fa st\u00e2nd lucrurile, 2025 va fi un an greu \u015fi va veni, cel mai probabil, cu cre\u015fteri de taxe \u015fi nu mai este exclus\u0103 chiar o recesiune.<\/p>\n

\nDespre o ajustare fiscal\u0103 \u00een 2025 vorbe\u015fte \u015fi Ionu\u0163 Dumitru: \u201eDeficitul bugetar este mult prea mare \u015fi vor fi presiuni pentru reducerea lui. Deficitul de 7% din PIB \u00een 2024 ar fi tre\u00adbuit s\u0103 ajute economia (pentru c\u0103 sunt mai mul\u0163i bani \u00een circuit), dar nu a f\u0103cut-o, ceea ce arat\u0103 risipa extrem de mare a gu\u00advernului. (\u201eNe-am \u00eempru\u00admu\u00adtat ca s\u0103 consum\u0103m\u201c – Cod\u00eerla\u015fu.)<\/p>\n

\nCa m\u0103sur\u0103 imediat\u0103, insti\u00adtu\u0163iile de credit au anun\u0163at revizuirea \u00een jos a prognozelor de cre\u015ftere.<\/p>\n

\nRaiffeisen \u00eei va recalcula prognoza de cre\u015ftere spre 1%, \u201eunu \u015fi ceva\u201c (nu este o cifr\u0103 oficial\u0103). Erste Bank a anun\u0163at c\u0103-\u015fi va modifica prognoza de cre\u015ftere de la de la 2,9%, p\u00e2n\u0103 ieri, la 1,4% pentru \u00eentregul an. \u00cen aceea\u015fi vreme, ING Bank a decis s\u0103 revizuiasc\u0103 \u00een sc\u0103dere prognoza privind cre\u015fterea PIB \u00een 2024, de la 2,8% la 2%.<\/p>\n

\n\u201eDatele de ast\u0103zi schi\u0163eaz\u0103 o imagine destul de sumbr\u0103 a unei cre\u015fteri mai lente dec\u00e2t se a\u015ftepta. Sunt necesare \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163iri vizibile \u00een a doua jum\u0103tate a anului pentru ca cre\u015fterea s\u0103 se accelereze \u00een acest an. Riscurile de sc\u0103dere a ratelor au crescut\u201c, spun anali\u015ftii ING.<\/p>\n

\n
\n <\/p>\n

\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201eNea\u015fteptat de slabe\u201c acesta a fost re\u00adfrenul eco\u00adnomi\u015ftilor repetat ieri cu referire la datele furnizare de Statistic\u0103 privind cre\u015fterea PIB \u00een T2.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[190,189,183,7931,8350,7262],"class_list":["post-229291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-crestere-economica","tag-deficit-bugetar","tag-imprumut","tag-pib","tag-prognoza","tag-taxe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=229291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/229291\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=229291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=229291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=229291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}