\n\u00cen UE, infla’ia este departe de v\u00e2rfurile istorice atinse anul trecut, dar se \u00eenc\u0103p\u0103\u0163\u00e2neaz\u0103 s\u0103 stea la cote considerate ridicate \u015fi contraatac\u0103 u\u015for. BCE, profit\u00e2nd de fereastra oferit\u0103 de defla\u0163ie, cel mai proba\u00adbil va reduce dob\u00e2nzile \u00een iunie de la cotele \u015fi ele istorice din prezent. Dar ce va face apoi este neclar. Nici ea nu \u015ftie pentru c\u0103 nu este sigur\u0103 cum vor reac\u0163iona pre\u00ad\u0163u\u00adrile. Pie\u0163ele pariaz\u0103 c\u0103 ritmul ieftinirii cre\u00addi\u00adtului va fi mai lent dec\u00e2t s-a crezut p\u00e2n\u0103 acum. Aceste lucruri \u00eenseamn\u0103 pre\u0163uri mari \u015fi dob\u00e2nzi ridicate mai mult timp. Noul normal, dup\u0103 cum spun anali\u015ftii de la BNP Paribas.<\/p>\n
\nEuropa se confrunt\u0103 cu o \u201eschim\u00adbare genera\u0163ional\u0103\u201c \u00een arhi\u00adtec\u00adtura sa economic\u0103, care va face ca infla\u0163ia s\u0103 fie structural mai mare dec\u00e2t \u00een orice perioad\u0103 de la \u00eencepu\u00adtul anilor 1980, au declarat pentru Euractiv doi economi\u015fti de frunte ai BNP.<\/p>\n
\nKoen De Leus \u015fi Philippe Gijsels, economist-\u015fef respectiv di\u00adrector de strategie la BNP Paribas Fortis, au spus c\u0103 nivelurile \u00een cre\u015f\u00adtere ale da\u00adtoriei publice, fragmen\u00adta\u00adrea geopo\u00adlitic\u0103, \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nirea popu\u00adla\u00ad\u0163iei \u015fi schim\u00adb\u0103rile cli\u00admatice se vor traduce prin cre\u015fte\u00adrea cvasiper\u00admanent\u0103 a pre\u0163urilor, care va for\u0163a inevitabil b\u0103ncile cen\u00adtrale s\u0103 men\u00ad\u0163in\u0103 ratele la nive\u00adluri nemaiv\u0103zute de decenii.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen timp ce stabili\u00adta\u00adtea pre\u0163urilor ar tre\u00adbui s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 principa\u00adlul man\u00addat oficial al BCE, cei doi anali\u015fti se a\u015fteap\u00adt\u0103 ca in\u00adfla\u0163ia de 3% s\u0103 devin\u0103 \u201enoul 2%\u201c ca \u0163int\u0103 de re\u00adfe\u00adrin\u0163\u0103. \u201eAcesta este o schim\u00adbare gene\u00adra\u00ad\u0163ional\u0103 a momen\u00adtului \u2013 iar ultima de am\u00adploa\u00adre a fost la \u00eenceputul anilor 1980\u201c, a spus Gijsels \u2013 referin\u00addu-se la o perioad\u0103 \u00een care fostul pre\u00ad\u015fe\u00addinte al Rezervei Federale Paul Volcker a controlat hiperinfla\u0163ia din anii 1970 prin cre\u015fterea ratelor dob\u00e2n\u00adzilor c\u0103tre un v\u00e2rf de 20%, atins \u00een 1981.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eTotul s-a schimbat \u00een anii 1980. \u015ei acum credem c\u0103 totul se va schimba din nou\u201c, a spus Gijsels. \u201eCea mai mare gre\u015feal\u0103 este s\u0103 credem c\u0103 COVID a fost o \u00ableb\u0103d\u0103 neagr\u0103\u00bb \u015fi c\u0103 ne-am descurcat cu asta, iar acum ne \u00eentoarcem la normal\u201c, a ad\u0103ugat el. Spre deosebire de vremurile de dinainte de pandemia de COVID-19, c\u00e2nd cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 sc\u0103zut\u0103 \u015fi infla\u0163ia redus\u0103 au determinat b\u0103ncile centrale s\u0103 scad\u0103 ratele dob\u00e2nzilor aproape de zero \u015fi s\u0103 cumpere obliga\u0163iuni guvernamentale \u015fi private pentru a stimula economia, \u201elumea de ast\u0103zi seam\u0103n\u0103 mult mai mult cu anii 1960 \u015fi 70\u201c, a explicat el.<\/p>\n
\nInfla\u0163ia din anii 1960 \u015fi 1970 \u201ea fost cauzat\u0103 \u00een principal de \u015focurile petroliere\u201c, a spus Gijsels. \u201eDar au fost multe alte lucruri\u201c, a ad\u0103ugat el, men\u0163ion\u00e2nd cheltuieli militare mai mari, r\u0103zboiul din Vietnam, interven\u0163ii guvernamentale, transferuri de bani de la guvern, protec\u0163ionism, sindicate puternice \u015fi presiuni salariale \u2013 multe dintre ele par familiare ast\u0103zi, a remarcat analistul.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eDup\u0103 cum a spus Mark Twain: \u201eIstoria nu se repet\u0103, dar rimeaz\u0103\u201c, a spus el. Cei doi economi\u015fti, care au scris recent cartea \u201eThe New World Economy in 5 Trends\u201c, cred c\u0103 din cinci \u201emegatendin\u0163e\u201c care vor modela economia global\u0103 actual\u0103, doar una este defla\u0163ionist\u0103 \u2013 cre\u015fteri ale productivit\u0103\u0163ii determinate de inova\u0163ie.<\/p>\n
\nEi au explicat c\u0103 un \u201eboom al productivit\u0103\u0163ii\u201c\u2013 a\u015fteptat s\u0103 aib\u0103 loc c\u00e2ndva \u00een urm\u0103torii 5-15 ani \u2013 va lua \u00een mare parte forma inova\u0163iei \u00een domenii precum inteligen\u0163a artificial\u0103 \u015fi calculul cuantic, transform\u00e2nd astfel munca companiilor \u015fi procesele de produc\u0163ie.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eAcestea vor face procesele mult mai rapide, mult mai productive\u201c, a spus De Leus. Cu toate acestea, economi\u015ftii au avertizat c\u0103 astfel de cre\u015fteri rapide ale productivit\u0103\u0163ii nu vor fi probabil suficiente pentru a contracara celelalte patru tendin\u0163e infla\u0163ioniste.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eAm avut 40 de ani de sc\u0103dere a ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor, iar acum vom avea 10, 20, 30 de ani de cre\u015ftere a infla\u0163iei \u015fi a ratelor dob\u00e2nzilor din cauza acestor patru tendin\u0163e infla\u0163ioniste \u015fi, probabil, a unei tendin\u0163e defla\u0163ioniste\u201c, a spus De Leus.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00cen UE, infla\u0162ia este departe de v\u00e2rfurile istorice atinse anul trecut, dar se \u00eenc\u0103p\u0103\u0163\u00e2neaz\u0103 s\u0103 stea la cote considerate ridicate \u015fi contraatac\u0103 u\u015for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[57940,57938,24930,57939],"class_list":["post-227312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-dobanzi-ridicate","tag-lumea-post-covid","tag-normalitate","tag-preturi-mari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=227312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227312\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=227312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=227312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=227312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}