{"id":225356,"date":"2024-03-28T10:01:34","date_gmt":"2024-03-28T10:01:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=225356"},"modified":"2024-03-28T10:01:34","modified_gmt":"2024-03-28T10:01:34","slug":"vine-prima-scadere-mai-vizibila-a-dobanzilor-aveti-grija-ca-bancile-sa-va-reduca-dobanzile-la-creditele-in-lei-ircc-scade-la-590-in-t2-si-585-in-t3-2024-robor-la-3-luni-tot-peste-6-desi-lichidi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=225356","title":{"rendered":"Vine prima sc\u0103dere mai vizibil\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzilor. Ave\u0163i grij\u0103 ca b\u0103ncile s\u0103 v\u0103 reduc\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile la creditele \u00een lei! IRCC scade la 5,90% \u00een T2 \u015fi 5,85% \u00een T3\/2024. ROBOR la 3 luni, tot peste 6%, de\u015fi lichiditatea b\u0103lte\u015fte"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n<em><strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u2666<\/span> \u00cen condi\u0163iile excesului de lichiditate, instrumentul de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 relevant a devenit dob\u00e2nda de 6% la facilitatea de depozit (care este remunerat\u0103 de BNR b\u0103ncilor care-\u015fi parcheaz\u0103 bani astfel), \u015fi nu dob\u00e2nda-cheie de 7% <span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u2666<\/span> ROBOR nu poate sc\u0103dea sub aceast\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103 6%.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\nCreditele retail noi \u00een lei ipotecare \u015fi de consum acordate dup\u0103 luna mai 2019, care sunt indexate la noul indice de referin\u0163\u0103 trimestrial IRCC, ar urma s\u0103 aib\u0103 dob\u00e2nzi mai mici \u00een perioada urm\u0103toare \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care IRCC coboar\u0103 la 5,90% \u00een T2\/2024 \u015fi apoi spre 5,85% \u00een T3\/2024, sub nivelul de aproape 6% unde a oscilat p\u00e2n\u0103 acum.<\/p>\n<p>\nPe de alt\u0103 parte, de\u015fi a mai sc\u0103zut \u015fi ROBOR la 3 luni, folosit la calculul dob\u00e2n\u00adzilor variabile la creditele popula\u0163iei \u00een lei de dinainte de mai 2019, precum \u015fi pentru cre\u00addi\u00adtele firmelor \u00een lei, acest indice este tot peste pragul de 6% \u00een pofida lichidit\u0103\u0163ii re\u00adcord din pia\u0163a interbancar\u0103, valoarea de ieri sta\u0163ion\u00e2nd la 6,05%. Dup\u0103 ce \u00een T1\/2024 la creditele retail noi \u00een lei cu do\u00adb\u00e2nd\u0103 varia\u00adbil\u0103 valoarea IRCC conside\u00adrat\u0103 ca referin\u0163\u0103 a fost de 5,97%, pentru \u00eemprumuturile din T2\/2024 se va aplica un IRCC de 5,90%, pentru ca \u00een T3\/2024 IRCC folosit la credi\u00adtele retail noi s\u0103 fie \u00een jurul a 5,85%, dup\u0103 cum reiese din calculele reali\u00adzate pe baza datelor zilnice ale BNR privind dob\u00e2nda la tranzac\u0163ii interbancare de p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 26 martie.<\/p>\n<p>\nConcret, media datelor din T4\/2023, adic\u0103 din lunile octombrie, noiembrie \u015fi decembrie 2023 indic\u0103 un IRCC de 5,90%, iar valoarea aferent\u0103 acestei perioade urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 se aplice pentru creditele noi care vor fi acordate \u00een T2\/2024.<\/p>\n<p>\nDeocamdat\u0103, IRCC a r\u0103mas mai mic dec\u00e2t ROBOR la 3 luni \u015fi \u00een 2023 \u015fi \u00een primul trimestru din 2024, \u00een ciuda unor previziuni c\u0103 va dep\u0103\u015fi destul de repede ROBOR. R\u0103m\u00e2ne de v\u0103zut dac\u0103 ROBOR va cobor\u00ee p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului sub IRCC. Infla\u0163ia anual\u0103 ar urma s\u0103 scad\u0103 spre finalul anului la 4,7% de la 6,6% la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului 2023, dar BNR a men\u0163inut p\u00e2n\u0103 acum dob\u00e2nda-cheie la 7% \u015fi nu a modificat nici coridorul facilit\u0103\u0163ilor permanente.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u00centre evolu\u0163ia ROBOR \u015fi a IRCC este un lag de c\u00e2teva luni, dar difer\u0103 \u015fi metodologia de calcul. \u00cen timp ce ROBOR este stabilit zilnic la fixing, folosind ultimele rate cotate de fiecare banc\u0103, \u00eentr-un interval, indicele IRCC zilnic se calculeaz\u0103 pe baza tranzac\u0163iilor efective, respectiv media ponderat\u0103 a ratelor de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 cu volumele tranzac\u0163iilor interbancare, iar apoi se calculeaz\u0103 IRCC trimestrial.<\/p>\n<p>\nPia\u0163a interbancar\u0103 a avut \u00een februarie 2024 un excedent de lichiditate mare, de peste 47 mld. lei medie zilnic\u0103, dup\u0103 ce \u00een ianuarie surplusul urcase la un record de peste 60 mld. lei medie zilnic\u0103, cel mai mare nivel de dup\u0103 2012.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u00cen ciuda excesului de lichiditate, ROBOR la 3 luni a r\u0103mas peste 6% \u015fi peste IRCC.<\/p>\n<p>\nInstrumentul de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 relevant \u00een Rom\u00e2nia a devenit dob\u00e2nda de 6% la facilitatea de depozit (care este remunerat\u0103 de BNR b\u0103ncilor care-\u015fi parcheaz\u0103 bani astfel), \u015fi nu dob\u00e2nda-cheie de 7%.<\/p>\n<p>\nDeoarece rata facilit\u0103\u0163ii de depozit este limita de jos a intervalul de varia\u0163ie a dob\u00e2nzilor din pia\u0163a interbancar\u0103, este improbabil ca ROBOR la 3 luni s\u0103 scad\u0103 sub nivelul acesteia, adic\u0103 sub 6%, potrivit economi\u015ftilor. \u00cens\u0103, ROBOR nu a ajuns \u00eenc\u0103 nici la 6,0%.<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n<span style=\"color:#b22222;\"><strong>IRCC coboar\u0103 de l\u00e2ng\u0103 6% la 5,9% \u015fi apoi la 5,85%. ROBOR la 3 luni, tot peste 6%<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\n<span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba<\/span> <strong>5,97% este valoarea indicelui de referin\u0163\u0103 trimestrial IRCC aplicat\u0103 la creditele noi \u00een T1\/2024, valoare calculat\u0103 pe baza datelor din T3\/2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba<\/span> 5,90% este nivelul la care scade indicele IRCC, aceast\u0103 valoare ce va fi aplicat\u0103 \u00een T2\/2024 fiind calculat\u0103 pe baza datelor din T4\/2023.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba<\/span> 5,85% este nivelul estimativ la care poate sc\u0103dea indicele IRCC aplicat \u00een T3\/2024, calculat pe baza datelor din T1\/2024 de p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 26 martie.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba<\/span> 6,05% este cea mai recent\u0103 valoare a indicelui ROBOR la 3 luni, folosit la calculul dob\u00e2nzilor variabile la creditele popula\u0163iei \u00een lei de dinainte de luna mai 2019, precum \u015fi pentru creditele firmelor \u00een lei.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba<\/span> 6% este dob\u00e2nda la facilitatea de depozit oferit\u0103 de BNR b\u0103ncilor care \u015fi depun banii astfel, aceast\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103 devenind instrumentul de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 relevant \u00een contextul excedentului mare de lichiditate.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<strong><span style=\"color:#b22222;\">\u25ba <\/span>7% este dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a BNR, nivel la care sta\u0163ioneaz\u0103 de la \u00eenceput de 2023 \u015fi p\u00e2n\u0103 acum.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Sursa: statisticile BNR<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u2666 \u00cen condi\u0163iile excesului de lichiditate, instrumentul de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 relevant a devenit dob\u00e2nda de 6% la facilitatea de depozit (care este remunerat\u0103 de BNR b\u0103ncilor care-\u015fi parcheaz\u0103 bani astfel), \u015fi nu dob\u00e2nda-cheie de 7% \u2666 ROBOR nu poate sc\u0103dea sub aceast\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103 6%. Creditele retail noi \u00een lei ipotecare \u015fi de consum acordate dup\u0103 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[46409,185,57303,187,45125,17315],"class_list":["post-225356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bancile","tag-bnr","tag-creditele-in-lei","tag-dobanzi","tag-ircc","tag-robor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225356","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=225356"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/225356\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=225356"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=225356"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=225356"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}