{"id":219025,"date":"2023-08-27T17:18:35","date_gmt":"2023-08-27T17:18:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=219025"},"modified":"2026-04-10T05:47:35","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T05:47:35","slug":"sunt-noi-majorari-de-dobanzi-necesare-dupa-un-an-strategii-de-la-bce-si-fed-inca-orbecaie-in-intuneric-si-se-contrazic-reciproc-in-continuare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=219025","title":{"rendered":"Sunt noi major\u0103ri de dob\u00e2nzi necesare? Dup\u0103 un an, strategii de la BCE \u015fi Fed \u00eenc\u0103 orbec\u0103ie \u00een \u00eentuneric \u015fi se contrazic reciproc \u00een continuare"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\nJoachim Nagel, membru al consiliului guvernator al B\u0103ncii Centrale Europene, a declarat recent c\u0103 nu este convins c\u0103 infla\u0163ia este suficient sub control pentru ca banca s\u0103 pun\u0103 pe pauz\u0103 major\u0103rile de dob\u00e2nzi, decizia sa depinz\u00e2nd de datele suplimentare ce vor fi pu\u00adblicate \u00een s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nile urm\u0103toare, scrie Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201ePentru mine este prea devreme pentru a m\u0103 g\u00e2ndi la o pauz\u0103\u201c, a declarat \u015feful Bundesbank. \u201eNu ar trebui s\u0103 uit\u0103m c\u0103 infla\u0163ia se situeaz\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 la aproximativ 5%. Deci este prea mare\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>\nDe\u015fi activitatea economic\u0103 \u00eence\u00adtine\u015fte, infla\u0163ia de baz\u0103 se men\u0163ine ridicat\u0103, iar pia\u0163a muncii este \u201edestul de solid\u0103\u201c, a declarat Nagel.<\/p>\n<p>\nBoris Vujcic, un alt membru al consiliului guvernator al b\u0103ncii, a declarat la r\u00e2ndul s\u0103u c\u0103 oficialii au nevoie de mai multe date privitoare la traiectoria infla\u0163iei pentru a determina dac\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile au crescut suficient.<\/p>\n<p>\nDe\u015fi datele sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 activita\u00adtea economic\u0103 \u00eencetine\u015fte, acest lu\u00adcru nu se reflect\u0103 prea mult \u00een ratele infla\u0163iei, a ad\u0103ugat Vujcic. \u00centrebarea pentru lunile urm\u0103toare va fi dac\u0103 infla\u0163ia serviciilor se va tempera su\u00adficient \u015fi dac\u0103 \u201evom sim\u0163i consecin\u00ad\u0163ele \u00eencetinirii pe pia\u0163a muncii\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>\nComentariile celor doi vin \u00eenain\u00adtea reuniunii BCE de la mijlocul lunii septembrie c\u00e2nd oficialii vor trebui s\u0103 decid\u0103 dac\u0103 s\u0103 pun\u0103 major\u0103rile de dob\u00e2nzi pe pauz\u0103 sau s\u0103 duc\u0103 mai departe campania istoric\u0103 de scum\u00adpi\u00adre a creditului. BCE a majorat do\u00adb\u00e2n\u00adzile pentru a noua oar\u0103 luna tre\u00adcut\u0103 \u00een decurs de aproximativ un an.<\/p>\n<p>\nPerspectivele economice ale zonei euro s-au deteriorat \u00een ultimele luni, cu major\u0103rile de 425 de puncte baz\u0103 operate de BCE din iulie 2022, ap\u0103s\u00e2nd asupra cre\u015fterii.<\/p>\n<p>\nJ P Morgan a anun\u0163at c\u0103 se a\u015f\u00adteap\u00adt\u0103 ca BCE s\u0103-\u015fi pun\u0103 pe pauz\u0103 ciclul de \u00een\u0103sprire a politicii mone\u00adta\u00adre \u00een septembrie, potrivit Reuters. Banca american\u0103 anticipeaz\u0103 o majorare final\u0103 de 25 de puncte baz\u0103 \u00een octombrie \u00een loc de septembrie.<\/p>\n<p>\nTraderii iau \u00een calcul \u015fanse de 40% privind o majorare de 25 de puncte \u00een septembrie, \u00een sc\u0103dere fa\u0163\u0103 de \u015fansele de 50% v\u0103zute cu doar pu\u0163in timp \u00een urm\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>\nAce\u015ftia \u015fi-au redus de asemenea pariurile pe noi major\u0103ri de dob\u00e2nzi pentru restul anului, dar \u00eenc\u0103 v\u0103d \u015fanse de pu\u0163in sub 60% pentru o majorare de 25 de puncte \u00een decembrie.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u00cen ceea ce-i prive\u015fte pe oficialii b\u0103ncii centrale americane (Fed), ace\u015ftia v\u0103d dob\u00e2nzile apropiindu-se de v\u00e2rf, dar au pozi\u0163ii divergente cu privire la c\u00e2t de aproape sunt acestea de v\u00e2rful respectiv, noteaz\u0103 Bloomberg.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201eAm putea fi aproape, dar am putea avea nevoie s\u0103 mai cre\u015ftem dob\u00e2nzile pu\u0163in\u201c, a declarat Susan Collins, \u015fefa Boston Fed.<\/p>\n<p>\nSeparat, Patrick Harker, pre\u015fedinte Philadelphia Fed, \u015fi-a reiterat pozi\u0163ia potrivit c\u0103reia Fed-ul ar trebui s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile la nivelul actual \u00een timp ce evalueaz\u0103 impactul asupra economiei.<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Joachim Nagel, membru al consiliului guvernator al B\u0103ncii Centrale Europene, a declarat recent c\u0103 nu este convins c\u0103 infla\u0163ia este suficient sub control pentru ca banca s\u0103 pun\u0103 pe pauz\u0103 major\u0103rile de dob\u00e2nzi, decizia sa depinz\u00e2nd de datele suplimentare ce vor fi pu\u00adblicate \u00een s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nile urm\u0103toare, scrie Bloomberg.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[8830,187,8111,184],"class_list":["post-219025","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bce","tag-dobanzi","tag-fed","tag-inflatie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=219025"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219025\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":219045,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/219025\/revisions\/219045"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=219025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=219025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=219025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}