{"id":216317,"date":"2023-05-25T19:31:18","date_gmt":"2023-05-25T19:31:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=216317"},"modified":"2023-05-25T19:31:18","modified_gmt":"2023-05-25T19:31:18","slug":"daca-bancile-centrale-pierd-lupta-cu-inflatia-pentru-ca-au-obiective-prea-greu-de-atins-se-vor-declara-invinse-sau-vor-pregati-o-retragere-victorioasa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=216317","title":{"rendered":"Dac\u0103 b\u0103ncile centrale pierd lupta cu infla\u0163ia pentru c\u0103 au obiective prea greu de atins? Se vor declara \u00eenvinse sau vor preg\u0103ti o retragere victorioas\u0103?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n<span style=\"font-size: 12px;\">Un num\u0103r \u00een cre\u015ftere de juc\u0103tori de pe Wall Street pariaz\u0103 c\u0103 Rezerva Federal\u0103 american\u0103, cea mai puternic\u0103 banc\u0103 cen\u00adtral\u0103 din lume, nu va reu\u015fi s\u0103 aduc\u0103 nici anul acesta \u015fi nici \u00een urm\u0103torii ani infla\u0163ia la cota dorit\u0103, de 2% &#8211; \u0163inta de infla\u0163ie \u00een majoritatea economiilor mature. Scumpirile nu cedeaz\u0103, de\u015fi Fed a luptat p\u00e2n\u0103 acum cu ele cu o ferocitate nemaiv\u0103zut\u0103 de decenii, majo\u00adr\u00e2nd rapid dob\u00e2nzile \u015fi sacrific\u00e2nd cre\u015fterea economic\u0103. Se poate declara o banc\u0103 de talia Rezervei Federale, sau a BCE sau a B\u0103ncii Angliei \u00eenfr\u00e2nt\u0103?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\nNu, ar fi un dezastru, mai ales ales la nivel de \u00eencredere. Prin urmare, ce le-ar r\u0103m\u00e2ne a\u00adcestor institu\u0163ii de f\u0103cut dac\u0103 nu reu\u015fesc s\u0103 aduc\u0103 infla\u0163ia sub control \u015fi la \u0163inta de 2%? Pot declara infla\u0163ia ridicat\u0103 ca fiind noul nor\u00admal \u015fi pot duce \u0163inta mai sus, la o cot\u0103 la care pot ajunge. Oricum, pentru mul\u0163i teoreticieni ai economiei 2% este un obiectiv des\u00adtul de dubios. Dar sunt \u015fi des\u00adtui exper\u0163i care ap\u0103r\u0103 cota pen\u00adtru a face ca orice dez\u00adba\u00adtere le\u00adgat\u0103 de \u0163inta de in\u00adfla\u00ad\u0163ie s\u0103 fie la fel de \u00eencin\u00ads\u0103 ca lupta contra infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n<p>\nC\u00e2\u0163iva pre\u015fedin\u0163i re\u00adgio\u00adnali ai Fed au semna\u00adlizat recent c\u0103 sunt des\u00adchi\u015fi la a reevalua dac\u0103 obiectul de infla\u0163ie de 2% este cel mai potrivit pentru banca central\u0103 a SUA. \u201ePutem reveni asupra \u0163intei? Cu siguran\u0163\u0103 c\u0103 da. Dar nu putem reveni p\u00e2n\u0103 nu aducem infla\u0163ia \u00eenapoi la 2%\u201c, a spus pre\u015fe\u00addintele Fed Minneapolis Neel Kashkari \u00eentr-un interviu pentru Reuters.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201ePutem \u00eencepe dezbaterile despre \u0163inta co\u00adrect\u0103 dup\u0103 ce banca central\u0103 american\u0103 aduce infla\u0163ia la 2%\u201c. Luna trecut\u0103, pre\u015fedintele Fed Philadelphia Patrick Harker a sugerat \u015fi el c\u0103 la un moment dat \u0163inta ar putea fi reexami\u00adnat\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>\nDar la fel ca Neel Kashkari, Harker crede c\u0103 obiec\u00adtivul \u201enu tre\u00adbuie schim\u00adbat chiar acum\u201c. \u015ei \u00een zona euro se aud astfel de \u201e\u015foap\u00adte\u201c, dup\u0103 cum le descrie Bloom\u00adberg. Chiar pre\u015fedinta BCE Christine Lagarde a spus c\u0103 institu\u0163ia pe care o condu\u00adce poate reporni discu\u0163iile des\u00adpre \u0163inta de 2%, dar numai dup\u0103 ce infla\u0163ia este adus\u0103 la acest nivel.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201e\u00cen acest moment, nu este absolut niciun motiv pentru a schimba obiectivul pe termen mediu de 2%\u201c, a declarat ea \u00een aprilie la un summit la New York. \u201eDup\u0103 ce infla\u0163ia va ajunge acolo, c\u00e2nd vom avea siguran\u0163a c\u0103 st\u0103 acolo, abia atunci vom putea discuta.\u201c Dar cum a ajuns acest nivel de 2% at\u00e2t de impor\u00adtant? Obiectivul a fost adoptat de at\u00e2t de mul\u00adte b\u0103nci centrale \u00eenc\u00e2t a devenit sinonim cu cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 lin\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103n\u0103toas\u0103. Cu sigu\u00adran\u0163\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een spatele lui sunt calcule com\u00adplicate \u015fi ani de experien\u0163\u0103, ar dicta logica. Dar nu este a\u015fa. 2% este ceva destul de arbitrar. Fed a adoptat \u0163inta de infla\u0163ie de 2% \u00een 2012, forma\u00adliz\u00e2nd o practic\u0103 de ani de zile. De atunci, banca a c\u0103utat s\u0103 ghideze presiunile de pre\u0163 spre acest nivel \u015fi s\u0103 evite ca infla\u0163ia s\u0103 urce prea mult sau s\u0103 coboare prea jos fa\u0163\u0103 de acest reper, iar oficialii Fed au ap\u0103rat obiectivul cu \u00eend\u00e2rjire.<\/p>\n<p>\nPre\u015fedintele de acum al b\u0103ncii centrale Jerome Powell a spus clar c\u0103 se opune schim\u00adb\u0103rii deoarece \u0163inta actual\u0103 ofer\u0103 \u00eencredere c\u0103 o institu\u0163ie puternic\u0103 are un obiectiv precis \u015fi va face orice pentru a-l \u00eendeplini. \u201e\u00cens\u0103 \u0163inta de 2% este ceva relativ arbitrar\u201c, explic\u0103 pentru CNBC Josh Bivens, cercet\u0103tor la Economic Policy Institute. Ideea nici m\u0103car nu a venit dintr-o economie mare \u015fi complicat\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201eAi cre\u00adde c\u0103 Dumnezeu \u00eensu\u015fi vrea o infla\u0163ie de 2%, c\u0103 este ceva scris \u00een Biblie\u201c, spune Laurence Ball, profesor de economie la Universitatea Johns Hopkins \u015fi consultant la FMI. \u201eCon\u00adceptul a fost inventat, \u00een mod ciudat, \u00een Noua Zeeland\u0103.\u201c Acolo, economi\u015ftii sunt m\u00e2ndri de realizarea lor.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201eAm deschis calea \u00een \u0163intirea infla\u0163iei\u201c, ex\u00adplic\u0103 Arthur Grimes, profesor la Universita\u00adtea Victoria. Povestea \u00eencepe \u00een anii 1980, c\u00e2nd Noua Zeeland\u0103 se confrunta cu o infla\u0163ie in\u00adcredibil de puternic\u0103 \u015fi \u00eenc\u0103p\u0103\u0163\u00e2nat\u0103. Timp de dou\u0103 decenii infla\u0163ia \u00ee\u015fi f\u0103cea de cap la \u00een\u0103l\u0163imi de peste 10%.<\/p>\n<p>\nPe vremea aceea, Grimes, proas\u00adp\u0103t primit \u00een r\u00e2ndul doctorilor \u00een econo\u00admie, \u00ee\u015fi \u00eencepea munca la banca central\u0103, o institu\u0163ie care nu era independent\u0103 de guvern, a\u015fa cum este acum. \u201eNe g\u00e2ndeam noi, bine, dac\u0103 am avea \u00eendependen\u0163\u0103, ce s\u0103 lu\u0103m ca \u0163int\u0103, dob\u00e2nzile sau masa monetar\u0103\u201c, poves\u00adte\u015fte Grimes.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u201eIar \u00eentr-o zi mi-a picat fisa: de fapt, ce \u00eencerc\u0103m s\u0103 ob\u0163inem? Stabilitatea pre\u0163urilor. Deci de ce n-am avea pur \u015fi simplu o \u0163int\u0103 de infla\u0163ie?\u201c \u015ei ce-ar fi ca el \u015fi colegii s\u0103i s\u0103 spun\u0103 tuturor c\u0103 infla\u0163ia ar trebui s\u0103 fie mult mai mic\u0103 de 10%, spre exemplu 0-2%, \u015fi s\u0103 \u0163inteasc\u0103 acest nivel? \u201eA fost ca un \u015foc pentru toat\u0103 lumea\u201c, \u00ee\u015fi aminte\u015fte Roger Douglas, pe atunci ministru de finan\u0163e \u015fi unul din pionierii acestei politici, care a propus pentru \u00eenceput o \u0163int\u0103 de infla\u0163ie de 0-1%. \u201eN-am f\u0103cut dec\u00e2t s\u0103 anun\u0163 c\u0103 va fi 2% \u015fi de atunci ideea a prins r\u0103d\u0103cini.\u201c Acest nivel final a fost ales de \u015feful b\u0103ncii centrale. Banca a introdus \u0163inta de infla\u0163ie \u00een statutul s\u0103u \u00een 1989, ei urm\u00e2ndu-i rapid alte b\u0103nci centrale, cum ar fi cea a Canadei, a Marii Britanii, a Finlandei \u015fi a Suedei. Dar unii economi\u015fti spun c\u0103 \u0163inta de 2% nu are justificare \u015fi c\u0103 nu exist\u0103 dovezi c\u0103 acest nivel ar fi mai bun dec\u00e2t cel de 3% sau de 4%. \u201eEste o eroare s\u0103 spunem c\u0103 2% este num\u0103rul magic\u201c, recunoa\u015fte un fost pre\u015fedinte al Fed Kansas City, Thomas Hoenig. Pentru a atinge aceast\u0103 \u0163int\u0103 fix\u0103 \u00een vremuri cu crize f\u0103r\u0103 precedent, b\u0103ncile centrale au f\u0103cut ceea ce acum este perceput de unii anali\u015fti ca exces de zel. \u00cen criza financiar\u0103 global\u0103, c\u00e2nd infla\u0163ia devenise negativ\u0103, marile b\u0103nci centrale au dus dob\u00e2nzile la cele mai mici niveluri posibile \u015fi au aruncat pe pia\u0163\u0103 cantit\u0103\u0163i enorme de bani \u00een speran\u0163a c\u0103 vor reporni creditarea, consumul \u015fi economiile, \u0163intind o infla\u0163ie de 2% \u00een loc de una mai redus\u0103, care ar fi presupus mai pu\u0163in efort \u015fi mai pu\u0163ine riscuri. Apoi, c\u00e2nd economiile au fost lovite de valul de suprainfla\u0163ie de dup\u0103 pandemie, b\u0103ncile centrale nu doar c\u0103 n-au prev\u0103zut pericolul persisten\u0163ei infla\u0163iei, dar au \u015fi reac\u0163ionat \u00een for\u0163\u0103, major\u00e2nd agresiv dob\u00e2nzile pentru restric\u0163iona creditarea \u015fi fr\u00e2na consumul, \u0163inta fiind o infla\u0163ie de 2% \u00een loc de una mai mare.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Un num\u0103r \u00een cre\u015ftere de juc\u0103tori de pe Wall Street pariaz\u0103 c\u0103 Rezerva Federal\u0103 american\u0103, cea mai puternic\u0103 banc\u0103 cen\u00adtral\u0103 din lume, nu va reu\u015fi s\u0103 aduc\u0103 nici anul acesta \u015fi nici \u00een urm\u0103torii ani infla\u0163ia la cota dorit\u0103, de 2% &#8211; \u0163inta de infla\u0163ie \u00een majoritatea economiilor mature. Scumpirile nu cedeaz\u0103, de\u015fi Fed a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7267,184,6065],"class_list":["post-216317","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-banci","tag-inflatie","tag-obiective"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=216317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216317\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=216317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=216317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=216317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}