\nA r\u0103mas mai pu\u0163in de o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd, mar\u0163ea ce vine, vom intra \u00een cea de-a 23-a lun\u0103 de dezordine grav\u0103 a pre\u0163urilor de consum. Dispunem, deja, de suficiente date care s\u0103 conduc\u0103 la consolidarea opiniei c\u0103 dou\u0103 mari b\u0103nci centrale ale lumii, Fed \u015fi BCE, s-au \u00een\u015felat c\u00e2nd au sus\u0163inut, de-a lungul \u00eentregului an 2021, c\u0103 lumea se confrunt\u0103 cu o \u201einfla\u0163ie tranzitorie\u201c. \u015ei c\u0103 – \u00een acest caz cu referire strict\u0103 la SUA \u015fi la zona euro – \u00een cursul anului 2022 pre\u0163urile de consum vor reveni \u00een matca optim\u0103 de 2 la sut\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nCursul infla\u0163iei \u00eens\u0103, \u00een ambele zone, de-a lungul celor 22 de luni, arat\u0103 c\u00e2t de departe de starea lucrurilor din teren<\/p>\n
\ns-au situat cele dou\u0103 prognoze. \u015ei asta din dou\u0103 motive, ambele subiective. Unul fiind legat de imposibilitatea teoretic\u0103 de a vedea, \u00een vremuri de criz\u0103, cum o defla\u0163ie ce se dovedise extrem de \u00eenc\u0103p\u0103\u0163\u00e2nat\u0103 s-ar putea transforma peste noapte \u00eentr-o infla\u0163ie persistent\u0103. \u00cen timp ce al doilea motiv, care a plecat de la realitatea celor patru decenii de cre\u015fteri moderate ale pre\u0163urilor de consum, \u00een SUA \u015fi \u00een vestul Europei, ca premis\u0103, a devenit concluzia, mai exact convingerea c\u0103 lovitura puternic\u0103 dat\u0103 de Fed infla\u0163iei dup\u0103 \u015focurile petroliere din anii 1970 ar fi f\u0103cut imposibil un nou galop al pre\u0163urilor de consum mai devreme de o sut\u0103 de ani.<\/p>\n
\nAcum nu mai pomene\u015fte nimeni de infla\u0163ia tranzitorie. Frecvent, \u00een dezbaterile publice, denumirea folosit\u0103 este infla\u0163ia \u00eenr\u0103d\u0103cinat\u0103. Iar dac\u0103, p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103 cu vreun an, \u00eenc\u0103 era la ordinea zilei o separare categoric\u0103 \u00eentre carta BCE, potrivit c\u0103reia focalizarea politicii monetare era concentrat\u0103 exclusiv pe infla\u0163ie, \u00een timp ce \u00een cazul Fed politica monetar\u0103 continua s\u0103 aib\u0103 un triplu mandat. \u00cen contul b\u0103ncii centrale a SUA fiind trei mari responsabilit\u0103\u0163i: lupta cu infla\u0163ia, cu \u015fomajul si cu sprijinirea sustenabilit\u0103\u0163ii cre\u015fterii economice.<\/p>\n
\nArgumentul tare, ce sus\u0163ine op\u0163iunea pentru acest triunghi, fiind acela c\u0103 priorit\u0103\u0163ile economice sufer\u0103 schimb\u0103ri de la o etap\u0103 la alta, mai cu seam\u0103 \u00een vremuri de criz\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 politica monetar\u0103 nu poate fi direc\u0163ionat\u0103 c\u0103tre un singur obiectiv. Fiind deci firesc ca, \u00een corela\u0163ie cu priorit\u0103\u0163ile fiec\u0103rei etape, s\u0103 intervin\u0103 schimb\u0103ri de paradigm\u0103 si \u00een politica monetar\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nAst\u0103zi, c\u00e2nd vremurile cer schimb\u0103ri istorice, actuala echip\u0103 de la Fed n-a ezitat s\u0103-\u015fi focalizeze interven\u0163iile c\u0103tre unul dintre principalele obiective ale economiei americane \u00een acest moment: protejarea societ\u0103\u0163ii, a companiilor din economie, a gospod\u0103riilor popula\u0163iei de flagelul infla\u0163iei. F\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 abandoneze celelalte dou\u0103 obiective. Dimpotriv\u0103, asigur\u00e2nd o leg\u0103tur\u0103 puternic\u0103 \u00eentre ele, o cerin\u0163\u0103 de baz\u0103 fiind combaterea infla\u0163iei f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 fie pus\u0103 \u00een pericol cre\u015fterea economic\u0103. Aceast\u0103 schimbare de paradigm\u0103, \u00een politica monetar\u0103, a intervenit \u00eens\u0103 t\u00e2rziu, fiind consolidat\u0103 abia \u00een martie 2022. Fiind \u00eenso\u0163it\u0103 de convingerea c\u0103 trecerea de la un comportament relaxat, de dragul dob\u00e2nzilor apropiate de zero, la unul \u00een\u0103sprit, care s\u0103 calmeze infla\u0163ia, nu se face la \u00eent\u00e2mplare.<\/p>\n
\nAst\u0103zi, acest punct de vedere este generalizat \u00een toat\u0103 lumea. Important cu deosebire, \u00een politica monetar\u0103, fiind scopul: s\u0103 nu fie vindecate r\u0103ni provoc\u00e2nd alte r\u0103ni, uneori \u015fi mai dureroase. Mai cu seam\u0103 c\u0103 istoria b\u0103ncilor centrale fiind bogat\u0103 \u00een nenum\u0103rate exemple c\u00e2nd politici menite s\u0103 fr\u00e2neze \u015fomajul, au sl\u0103bit h\u0103\u0163urile infla\u0163iei, sau invers, \u00eencerc\u0103ri de a proteja infla\u0163ia au l\u0103sat \u015fomajul s\u0103 creasc\u0103, sold\u00e2ndu-se si cu \u015fomaj, \u015fi cu infla\u0163ie \u00een cre\u015ftere.<\/p>\n
\nTocmai evitarea unui astfel de pericol este acum prioritar\u0103 pentru toate b\u0103ncile centrale, mari s-a mici. Iar argumenta\u0163ia pre\u015fedintelui Fed, Jerome Powel, nu las\u0103 loc niciunei alte interpret\u0103ri. \u00cel citez: \u201eCeea ce \u00eentreprindem reflect\u0103 viziunea noastr\u0103 c\u0103 o pia\u0163\u0103 solid\u0103 a for\u0163elor de munc\u0103 poate fi su\u0163inut\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 a genera o explozie a infla\u0163iei\u201c.<\/p>\n
\nAcest adev\u0103r, desigur esen\u0163ial, le-a sc\u0103pat acelor formatori de opinie, din lume si de la noi, care s-au gr\u0103bit s\u0103 depl\u00e2ng\u0103 \u201epolitica infla\u0163ionist\u0103 a Fed, ce va duce la cre\u015fteri de pre\u0163uri si la scumpirea traiului zilnic\u201c. N-au \u00een\u0163eles, de fapt, c\u0103 schimbarea tabloului politicii monetare a b\u0103ncii centrale a SUA s-a produs \u00eentr-un moment \u00een care economia american\u0103 se confrunt\u0103 cu dou\u0103 cerin\u0163e stringente: s\u0103 scad\u0103 pericolul de recesiune, umflat de actuala criz\u0103, si s\u0103 vad\u0103 infla\u0163ia stabiliz\u00e2ndu-se \u00een matca normalit\u0103\u0163ii, ceea ce nu-i deloc simplu.<\/p>\n
\nTradi\u0163ional, \u0163\u0103rile europene se tem mai mult de \u015focurile ce se resimt \u00een mi\u015fcarea pre\u0163urilor, pentru c\u0103 de-a lungul istoriei s-au confruntat de multe ori cu infla\u0163ii dintre cele mai dure.<\/p>\n
\nRecesiunea \u015fi infla\u0163ia, dou\u0103 boli specifice crizelor, r\u0103spund bine la tratamente diametral opuse. Desigur, \u00een raport cu politica monetar\u0103, pentru c\u0103 altfel \u015fi o boal\u0103, \u015fi alta au nevoie s\u0103 fie sus\u0163inute de cre\u015fteri economice sustenabile, de bugete si de balan\u0163e de pl\u0103\u0163i s\u0103n\u0103toase. \u00cen raport cu politica monetar\u0103 \u00eens\u0103, pericolul de recesiune scade c\u00e2nd dob\u00e2nzile b\u0103ncilor centrale scad si ele, \u00een timp ce infla\u0163ia se calmeaz\u0103 c\u00e2nd aceste dob\u00e2nzi urc\u0103.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A r\u0103mas mai pu\u0163in de o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd, mar\u0163ea ce vine, vom intra \u00een cea de-a 23-a lun\u0103 de dezordine grav\u0103 a pre\u0163urilor de consum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[17670,7267,185,190,187,184,8790,8327],"class_list":["post-209587","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-adrian-vasilescu","tag-banci","tag-bnr","tag-crestere-economica","tag-dobanzi","tag-inflatie","tag-politica-monetara","tag-scadere"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209587","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=209587"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209587\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=209587"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=209587"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=209587"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}