\nPe fondul succeselor \u00eenregistrate de trupele ucrainene pe front, r\u0103zboiul a ajuns \u00eentr-un punct care provoac\u0103 at\u00e2t speran\u0163\u0103 Occidentului \u015fi Ucrainei c\u00e2t \u015fi fric\u0103 \u00een acela\u015fi timp. Dup\u0103 mai multe \u00eenfr\u00e2ngeri, Vladimir Putin a sunat alarma de mobilizare \u015fi a amenin\u0163at din nou cu op\u0163iunea nuclear\u0103, st\u00e2rnind mai puternic ca oric\u00e2nd frica de acest scenariu, scrie Financial Times.<\/p>\n
\nChiar \u015fi atunci c\u00e2nd oficialii SUA au decis s\u0103 realizeze livrarea sistemelor HIMARS, care aveau s\u0103 schimbe cursul conflictului, ace\u015ftia erau con\u015ftien\u0163i de sabia cu dou\u0103 t\u0103i\u015furi a alegerii lor: cu c\u00e2t ucraineni aveau s\u0103 se descurce mai bine, cu at\u00e2t mai periculoas\u0103 avea s\u0103 devin\u0103 situa\u0163ia.<\/p>\n
\nMulte voci occidentale din domeniul ap\u0103r\u0103rii cred c\u0103 Putin blufeaz\u0103. Cu toate acestea, factorii importan\u0163i de decizie politic\u0103 \u015fi-au manifestat puternic \u00eengrijorarea fa\u0163\u0103 de noile amenin\u0163\u0103ri ale Kremlinului.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eAvertismentele nucleare ale Kremlinului sunt o problem\u0103 care trebuie tratat\u0103 extrem de serios\u201d, a declarat Jake Sullivan, consilierul pe securitate na\u0163ional\u0103 de la Casa Alb\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nScenariul \u00een care un r\u0103zboi nuclear s-ar dezl\u0103n\u0163ui a fost \u00eentotdeauna un factor extrem de important \u00een calculele care precedau deciziile de la Casa Alb\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nCei care sus\u0163in c\u0103 Putin blufeaz\u0103 sunt de p\u0103rere c\u0103 o lovitur\u0103 nuclear\u0103 ar fi o nebunie pentru c\u0103 o arm\u0103 nuclear\u0103 tactic\u0103 ar contamina Ucraina \u2013 unde Putin pozeaz\u0103 \u00een eliberator \u2013 \u015fi foarte probabil Rusia. Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 aceast\u0103 problem\u0103, un atac cu o arm\u0103 nuclear\u0103 tactic\u0103 ar determina NATO s\u0103 treac\u0103 la ac\u0163iune, cu at\u00e2t mai mult dac\u0103 un membru al alian\u0163ei ar fi \u0163inta loviturii.<\/p>\n
\nDar Putin este incol\u0163it. Lovitura nuclear\u0103 ar putea reprezenta totu\u015fi ultima sa decizie pentru c\u0103 alternativa \u2013 \u00eenfr\u00e2ngerea \u015fi umilin\u0163a \u2013 nu exist\u0103 \u00een c\u0103r\u0163ile Moscovei. \u00centr-o situa\u0163ie absolut disperat\u0103, Putin ar putea spera c\u0103 utilizarea armelor nucleare ar provoca un \u015foc major \u015fi ar for\u0163a instant Occidentul s\u0103 for\u0163eze discu\u0163ii \u015fi concesii.<\/p>\n
\nFactorii de decizie occidentali care iau foarte \u00een serios amenin\u0163\u0103rile lui Putin consider\u0103 ca acestuia nu trebuie s\u0103 i se permit\u0103 se foloseasc\u0103 \u015fantajul nuclear pentru a obliga Vestul s\u0103 renun\u0163e la Ucraina. Cu toate acestea, agenda stabilit\u0103 \u00eei for\u0163eaz\u0103 pe ace\u015ftia s\u0103 mearg\u0103 pe ghea\u0163\u0103 sub\u0163ire. Altfel spus, Occidentul trebuie s\u0103 ofer\u0103 suficient ajutor Ucrainei pentru a permite Kievului s\u0103 \u00eenving\u0103, dar f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 se ajung\u0103 la situa\u0163ia disperat\u0103 \u00een care Kremlinul ordon\u0103 atacul nuclear.<\/p>\n
\nObiectivele de r\u0103zboi ale lui Putin s-au mic\u015forat deja \u00eentr-un mod promi\u0163\u0103tor. Dac\u0103 la \u00eenceputul r\u0103zboiului liderul de la Kremlin voia eliminarea guvern\u0103rii Zelensky, \u00een prezent el s-a limitat la \u201eeliberarea\u201d Donbasului.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen condi\u0163iile \u00een care r\u0103zboiul lui Putin merge prost, iar poten\u0163ialii recru\u0163i au \u00eenceput s\u0103 se opun\u0103 recrut\u0103rii, Rusia pare c\u0103 se \u00eentoarce \u00eencet \u00een 1917, c\u00e2nd \u00eenfr\u00e2ngerile militare au dus la revolu\u0163ie. Cu toate acestea, istoria subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 revolu\u0163ia, r\u0103zboiul civil ,regimul instalat ulterior \u015fi problemele interne ale \u0163\u0103rii, se pot transforma cu u\u015furin\u0163\u0103 \u00eentr-o nou\u0103 amenin\u0163are pentru toat\u0103 lumea.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Pe fondul succeselor \u00eenregistrate de trupele ucrainene pe front, r\u0103zboiul a ajuns \u00eentr-un punct care provoac\u0103 at\u00e2t speran\u0163\u0103 Occidentului \u015fi Ucrainei c\u00e2t \u015fi fric\u0103 \u00een acela\u015fi timp. Dup\u0103 mai multe \u00eenfr\u00e2ngeri, Vladimir Putin a sunat alarma de mobilizare \u015fi a amenin\u0163at din nou cu op\u0163iunea nuclear\u0103, st\u00e2rnind mai puternic ca oric\u00e2nd frica de acest scenariu, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[16350,274,7676,186,19707,151,13572,366],"class_list":["post-208750","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-experti","tag-incepere","tag-nuclear","tag-razboi","tag-timp","tag-ucraina","tag-victorie","tag-vladimir-putin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208750","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=208750"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208750\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=208750"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=208750"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=208750"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}