\nC\u00e2teva repere sunt esen\u0163iale. \u00cencep\u00e2nd cu rata de referin\u0163\u0103; rata optim\u0103, unanim acceptat\u0103 pretutindeni \u00een lume, a mi\u015fc\u0103rii generale a pre\u0163urilor de consum – 2 la sut\u0103, niciun procent mai sus \u015fi niciun procent mai jos. \u015ei continu\u00e2nd cu devia\u0163iile de la aceast\u0103 rat\u0103 – \u015focuri \u00een planul cererii de consum ori \u00een planul ofertei, costuri mari ale activit\u0103\u0163ii economice, scumpiri ale produselor \u015fi serviciilor energetice. Seria \u00eencheindu-se cu rolul b\u0103ncilor centrale \u00een calmarea infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nLuna trecut\u0103, \u00eentr-un editorial, \u201eThe Economist\u201d nota c\u0103 \u201eindiferent cine e\u015fti, patron ori manager, salariat ori pensionar, rentier ori \u015fomer, te-ai \u00eemprumutat la o banc\u0103 ori ai deschis un depozit bancar, via\u0163a ta depinde de b\u0103ncile centrale; iar tot ce faci \u015fi tot ce ai are leg\u0103tur\u0103 direct\u0103 sau indirect\u0103 cu politica b\u0103ncilor centrale\u201d. Mesajul pleac\u0103, desigur, de la ceea ce, \u00een toat\u0103 lumea, sondajele de opinie eviden\u0163iaz\u0103: problema actual\u0103 cea mai grav\u0103 este povara pre\u0163urilor mari. A infla\u0163iei, deci, flagel despre care \u015fefa BCE (Christine Lagarde) spunea acum c\u00e2teva zile c\u0103 \u201e\u00eentunec\u0103 orizontul\u201d, iar \u015feful Fed (Jerome Powell) c\u0103 \u201eafecteaz\u0103 dramatic gospod\u0103riile popula\u0163iei \u015fi companiile din toate sectoarele\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nDe la b\u0103ncile centrale, \u00een mod deosebit, lumea a\u015fteapt\u0103 s\u0103 calmeze pre\u0163urile \u00een cre\u015ftere. \u015ei cum, pretutindeni, at\u00e2t oamenii din toate categoriile sociale c\u00e2t \u015fi institu\u0163iile \u015fi-au pierdut r\u0103bdarea, curg repro\u015furile la adresa b\u0103ncilor centrale. C\u00e2nd bun\u0103oar\u0103, \u00een martie fa\u0163\u0103 de februarie, rata anualizat\u0103 a infla\u0163iei din zona euro a f\u0103cut un salt semnificativ, de la 5,9 la 7,4 la sut\u0103 \u015fi BCE \u00ee\u015fi am\u00e2na \u00eenc\u0103 interven\u0163iile, nu s-au f\u0103cut auzite niciun fel de critici. Se aud \u00eens\u0103 acum, de\u015fi \u00eencep\u00e2nd din iunie pre\u0163urile cresc cu \u00eencetinitorul. Culmea este c\u0103 nici la Fed, c\u00e2t timp infla\u0163ia cre\u015ftea semnificativ de la o lun\u0103 la alta, nu s-au f\u0103cut auzite critici. Dup\u0103 ce \u00eens\u0103, \u00eencep\u00e2nd in iunie, se fac sim\u0163ite interven\u0163iile \u00een for\u0163\u0103 ale b\u0103ncii centrale americane \u015fi infla\u0163ia a sc\u0103zut de la 9,1 la 8,5 \u00een iulie \u015fi la 8,3 \u00een august, banca central\u0103 a SUA este atacat\u0103 sus\u0163inut pentru c\u0103 rata din august nu a sc\u0103zut p\u00e2n\u0103\u2026 la 8,1 la sut\u0103, c\u00e2t anticipaser\u0103 pie\u0163ele financiare c\u0103 ar urma s\u0103 scad\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nEste un fapt cert c\u0103 \u015fi Fed, \u015fi BCE \u015fi, \u00een general, b\u0103ncile centrale de pretutindeni trag tare s\u0103 calmeze infla\u0163ia pentru ca, \u00een perspectiv\u0103, s\u0103 asigure stabilitatea pre\u0163urilor. Care reprezint\u0103 cel mai bun activ social pe care o banc\u0103 central\u0103 \u00eel poate ob\u0163ine. Iar arma cea mai eficient\u0103 din arsenalul b\u0103ncilor centrale, folosit\u0103 \u00een ultim\u0103 instan\u0163\u0103 pentru a \u00eenfrunta infla\u0163ia, este dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103.<\/p>\n
\n\u015ei pentru c\u0103 este at\u00e2t de important\u0103 aceast\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 inevitabil conjunctura pie\u0163ei o influen\u0163eaz\u0103 \u00een bun\u0103 m\u0103sur\u0103, c\u00e2nd \u015fi de ce urc\u0103 ori coboar\u0103, c\u00e2t de mult sau c\u00e2t de pu\u0163in urc\u0103 ori coboar\u0103 \u015fi \u00een ce scopuri, toate aceste obiective sunt stabilite prin vot de c\u0103tre consiliile de conducere ale b\u0103ncilor centrale. Iar proiectele departamentelor de specialitate, \u00een baza c\u0103rora consiliile adopt\u0103 deciziile, cuprind evalu\u0103ri multidisciplinare: calcule ale probabilit\u0103\u0163ilor, model\u0103ri macroeconomice, analize statistice, sociologice, psihologice. \u00cen general, este analizat\u0103 realitatea din sistemul bancar \u00een raport cu tabloul economic, social \u015fi politic al unei \u0163\u0103ri \u015fi al lumii.<\/p>\n
\nMai presus de toate, \u00eens\u0103, toate aceste analize \u015fi calcule caut\u0103 linia de echilibru. O linie ro\u015fie, pe care trebuie s\u0103 se \u00eenscrie dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a oric\u0103rei b\u0103nci centrale, pentru c\u0103 dac\u0103 aceast\u0103 dob\u00e2nd\u0103 ar fi trasat\u0103 mai jos ar cre\u015fte infla\u0163ia, iar dac\u0103 ar fi trasat\u0103 mai sus ar provoca recesiune.<\/p>\n
\nReferindu-se la aceast\u0103 realitate, care se impune a fi respectat\u0103 cu rigoare, comunicatul BCE din luna iunie, ce reflecta pozi\u0163ia Consiliului Guvernatorilor din zona euro, sublinia c\u0103 ratele dob\u00e2nzilor reprezentative ale B\u0103ncii Centrale Europene se anticipeaz\u0103 c\u0103 vor urca din iulie la niveluri de deasupra cotei zero. P\u00e2n\u0103 c\u00e2nd? \u201eP\u00e2n\u0103 se va observa o convergen\u0163\u0103 robust\u0103 a perspectivelor infla\u0163iei c\u0103tre un nivel \u00een consens cu cerin\u0163ele actuale\u201d. Dup\u0103 care urmeaz\u0103 o precizare extrem de important\u0103: \u201esuficient de apropiat\u0103 de 2 la sut\u0103!\u201d… Pentru c\u0103 2 la sut\u0103 este cota unanim recunoscut\u0103, \u00een lumea modern\u0103, drept rata anual\u0103 optim\u0103 a infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nLuni, Eurostat a f\u0103cut public raportul asupra infla\u0163iei \u00een cele 27 de \u0163\u0103ri din Uniunea European\u0103. Raport \u00eenso\u0163it, ca de obicei, de graficul ce \u00eenf\u0103\u0163i\u015feaz\u0103 scala ratelor pre\u0163urilor de consum \u00een precedentele 12 luni. Respectiva scal\u0103 (sau paradigm\u0103) a valorilor m\u0103surabile ale infla\u0163iei, cu datele pe august 2022, ne arat\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een Rom\u00e2nia infla\u0163ia galopant\u0103 a \u00eencetat \u00eenc\u0103 din luna mai. Iar \u00een prezent agita\u0163ia pre\u0163urilor practic a \u00eencetat, ceea ce arat\u0103 c\u0103 din toamna acestui an ar putea s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103, \u00eencet, foarte \u00eencet, procesul dezinfla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nAnii care au trecut au l\u0103sat b\u0103ncii noastre centrale o zestre important\u0103: o experien\u0163\u0103 acumulat\u0103 \u00een condi\u0163ii reale, \u00eentr-o lume \u00een care mari b\u0103nci centrale, \u00een \u00eemprejur\u0103ri economice diferite de ale noastre, au socotit c\u0103 fac bine \u201eie\u015find din normalitate\u201d \u015fi alunec\u00e2nd cu dob\u00e2nzile de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 spre zero. Banca noastr\u0103 central\u0103, \u00een \u00eemprejur\u0103rile date, s-a v\u0103zut obligat\u0103 s\u0103 recurg\u0103 la un \u201earbitraj riguros\u201d: s\u0103 fac\u0103 o politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 \u00een acord cu realit\u0103\u0163ile concrete ale Rom\u00e2niei \u015fi, totodat\u0103, s\u0103 nu se distan\u0163eze periculos de ceea ce fac alte b\u0103nci centrale. Cu ochii pe linia ro\u015fie.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
C\u00e2teva repere sunt esen\u0163iale. \u00cencep\u00e2nd cu rata de referin\u0163\u0103; rata optim\u0103, unanim acceptat\u0103 pretutindeni \u00een lume, a mi\u015fc\u0103rii generale a pre\u0163urilor de consum – 2 la sut\u0103, niciun procent mai sus \u015fi niciun procent mai jos.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[17670,185,340,19154],"class_list":["post-208576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-adrian-vasilescu","tag-bnr","tag-preturi","tag-stare"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208576","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=208576"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208576\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=208576"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=208576"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=208576"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}