\nDecizia de joi a boardului BCE va fi, de asemenea, un test al determin\u0103rii cu care ban\u00adca central\u0103 a zonei euro lupt\u0103 cu scumpiri care \u00eenc\u0103 de la \u00eenceputul actualei crize i-au dep\u0103\u015fit a\u015ftept\u0103rile.<\/p>\n
\nRecent, oficiali ai BCE au recunoscut c\u0103 mo\u00addelele prin care cal\u00adculeaz\u0103 traiectoria in\u00adfla\u00ad\u0163iei sunt dep\u0103\u015fite de situa\u0163ia actual\u0103, ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 BCE a navigat \u015fi navi\u00adgheaz\u0103 orbe\u015fte prin cri\u00adz\u0103. Pentru c\u0103 institu\u00ad\u0163ia nu a ac\u0163ionat la timp, asigur\u00e2nd mereu c\u0103 valul de scumpiri este doar temporar, infla\u0163ia din zona euro a dep\u0103\u015fit 9%, un nivel istoric, \u00een timp ce \u0163inta b\u0103ncii este de 2%, prag considerat s\u0103n\u0103tos pentru eco\u00adnomie.<\/p>\n
\nCre\u015fterea de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na a\u00adceasta, considerat\u0103 ca fiind ceva sigur de pie\u0163e \u015fi anali\u015fti, nu va veni f\u0103r\u0103 sacrificii. Yieldurile obliga\u0163iunilor guvernamentale ale Italiei, adic\u0103 pre\u0163ul la care se finan\u0163eaz\u0103 guvernul de la Roma, au crescut la un nivel alarmant, iar \u00een unele state se vorbe\u015fte despre bomba cu explozie \u00eent\u00e2rziat\u0103 a creditelor ipotecare \u2013 cre\u015fterea dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 \u00eenseamn\u0103 credit mai scump \u015fi rate mai mari la \u00eemprumuturi.<\/p>\n
\nPentru cei mai mul\u0163i participan\u0163i la pia\u0163\u0103 \u015fi anali\u015fti, dilema este cu c\u00e2t va cre\u015fte BCE dob\u00e2nda, cu 50 de puncte de baz\u0103 sau cu 75 de puncte? BCE a mai majorat dob\u00e2nda \u00een \u015fedin\u0163a trecut\u0103, \u00eenainte de vacan\u0163a de var\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nA fost primul pas f\u0103cut \u00een aceast\u0103 direc\u0163ie din ultimul deceniu c\u00e2nd alte b\u0103nci centrale mari, cum este Rezerva Federal\u0103 ameri\u00adca\u00adn\u0103, \u015fi mici, cum sunt cele din Europa de Est, au \u00eenceput s\u0103 \u00eemping\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile \u00een sus acum mult, mult timp.<\/p>\n
\nEfectele unor astfel de m\u0103suri se v\u0103d cu laten\u0163\u0103 de mai multe luni. B\u0103ncile centrale est-europene cresc dob\u00e2nzile de mai bine de un an, iar infla\u0163ia continu\u0103 s\u0103 urce, dat\u0103 fiind natura crizei costurilor traiului care are ca motor central energia tot mai scump\u0103, \u00een special oprirea fluxurilor de gaze \u015fi petrol dinspre Rusia. \u201eBCE trebuie s\u0103 arate hot\u0103\u00adr\u00e2re \u00een aducerea sub control a cre\u015fterilor de pre\u0163uri. Banca central\u0103 va reac\u0163iona cu mai mult\u0103 for\u0163\u0103 la actualul val de infla\u0163ie, chiar cu riscul unei cre\u015fteri economice mai slabe \u015fi a unui \u015fomaj mai ridicat\u201c, a explicat Isabel Schnabel membru al boardului BCE din partea Germaniei. Ea este considerat\u0103 a fi o economist\u0103 echilibrat\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nDac\u0103 este vreo maladie economic\u0103 de care germanii se tem mai mult, aceasta este infla\u0163ia puternic\u0103. La ultima \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103, din iulie, BCE a pus cap\u0103t dintr-o dat\u0103 erei dob\u00e2nzilor negative \u2013 care a durat opt ani \u2013 cu o cre\u015ftere surpriz\u0103 de 50 de puncte de baz\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u0163\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nSchnabel a mai vorbit \u015fi de nevoia ca oamenii \u201es\u0103 aib\u0103 \u00eencredere\u201c c\u0103 BCE le va reface puterea de cump\u0103rare, corodat\u0103 de infla\u0163ie, scrie Euractiv.<\/p>\n
\nFinancial Times a remarcat c\u0103 mesajele anti-infla\u0163ie mai hot\u0103r\u00e2te ale BCE vin dup\u0103 ce oficialii institu\u0163iei au subestimat timp de un an for\u0163ele infla\u0163ioniste \u015fi \u00ee\u015fi pierd \u00eencrederea \u00een modelele de prognoz\u0103 ale institu\u0163iei. Acelea\u015fi modele arat\u0103 c\u0103 deciziile de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 ale b\u0103ncii centrale \u00ee\u015fi fac efectele \u00een economie dup\u0103 cel pu\u0163in 18 luni. Prin urmare, BCE a \u00eent\u00e2rziat foarte mult. \u201eEra mai mult sau mai pu\u0163in imposibil ca \u00een modelele noastre s\u0103 ob\u0163inem o infla\u0163ie care s\u0103 nu fie temporar\u0103\u201c, explic\u0103 guvernatorul b\u0103ncii centrale a Belgiei Pierre Wunsch, \u015fi el membru \u00een consiliul guvernator al BCE.<\/p>\n
\nAceste modele, a precizat economistul, arat\u0103u mereu c\u0103 infla\u0163ia va fr\u00e2na la 2%, indiferent de variabile. \u201eAm ajuns la concluzia c\u0103 \u015ftim mult mai pu\u0163ine despre motoarele infla\u0163iei dec\u00e2t am crezut.\u201c Juc\u0103torii de pe pie\u0163ele monetare din zona euro iau \u00een calcul o probabilitate de 85% ca BCE s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda cu 75 de puncte de baz\u0103, la 1,25%, \u00een urm\u0103toarea \u015fedin\u0163\u0103. Probabilitatea a crescut dup\u0103 ce ultimele date privind infla\u0163ia au ar\u0103tat un salt semnificativ.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cu un cumul istoric de crize \u00een zona euro, cu infla\u0163ie record \u015fi cu euro la un nivel sc\u0103zut istoric fa\u0163\u0103 de dolar, BCE este obligat\u0103 ca s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta s\u0103 ia o decizie istoric\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 duc\u0103 dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 \u00een sus \u00eentr-un salt f\u0103r\u0103 precedent.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[8830,7458],"class_list":["post-208006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bce","tag-dobanda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=208006"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208006\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=208006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=208006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=208006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}