\nDispera\u0163i s\u0103 \u00eembl\u00e2nzeasc\u0103 cre\u015f\u00adte\u00adrea pre\u0163urilor, bancherii centrali se \u00eentrec \u00een a \u00eent\u0103ri puterea de cum\u00adp\u0103rare pe plan local \u00een detrimentul exportatorilor, potrivit Bloomberg Businessweek.<\/p>\n
\nTotul a \u00eenceput cu Isabel Schnabel, de la BCE. \u00cen februarie, aceasta a ar\u0103tat un grafic indic\u00e2nd c\u00e2t de mult sl\u0103bise euro \u00een raport cu do\u00adlarul. Dou\u0103 luni mai t\u00e2rziu, Tiff Macklem de la Bank of Canada de\u00adpl\u00e2ngea declinul dolarului Canadian. Pre\u015fedintele b\u0103ncii centrale elve\u0163ie\u00adne, Thomas Jordan, a sugerat c\u0103 \u015fi-ar dori s\u0103 vad\u0103 un franc mai puternic.<\/p>\n
\nDolarul american era \u00een a\u00adpreciere puternic\u0103, cu Fed-ul preg\u0103\u00adtin\u00addu-se s\u0103 combat\u0103 agresiv infla\u0163ia. A\u015fa c\u0103, una dup\u0103 alta, \u015fi alte b\u0103nci centrale, la fel de disperate s\u0103 re\u00adstr\u00e2n\u00adg\u0103 cre\u015fterea continu\u0103 a infla\u0163iei \u00een propria ograd\u0103, au \u00eenceput s\u0103 e\u00admit\u0103 semnale nu foarte subtile c\u0103 \u015fi-ar dori monede mai solide, care ajut\u0103 la reducerea costului importurilor.<\/p>\n
\nEste o form\u0103 de interven\u0163ie at\u00e2t de rar\u0103, \u00eenc\u00e2t simplele comentarii ale b\u0103ncilor au mi\u015fcat pie\u0163ele. Pe 16 iunie, dou\u0103 dintre ele au plusat: Elve\u0163ia a surprins traderii cu prima majorare de dob\u00e2nzi din 2007, trimi\u00ad\u0163\u00e2nd francul la cel mai ridicat nivel din 7 ani. C\u00e2teva ore mai t\u00e2rziu, Banca Angliei \u015fi-a anun\u0163at propria majorare de dob\u00e2nzi \u015fi a semnalat noi viitoare major\u0103ri consistente.<\/p>\n
\nValoarea monedelor a devenit o parte din ce \u00een ce mai \u00eensemnat\u0103 din ecua\u0163ia infla\u0163iei. Michael Cahill, economist la Goldman Sachs, spune c\u0103 nu-\u015fi aminte\u015fte vreo perioad\u0103 an\u00adteri\u00adoar\u0103 \u00een care b\u0103ncile centrale ale \u0163\u0103rilor dezvoltate s\u0103 fi \u0163intit monede mai puternice at\u00e2t de agresiv. A\u00adceast\u0103 competi\u0163ie este supranumit\u0103 r\u0103zboi valutar inversat pentru c\u0103 timp de peste un deceniu \u0163\u0103rile au c\u0103utat opusul.<\/p>\n
\nO moned\u0103 mai slab\u0103 \u00eensemna ca firmele locale s\u0103 poat\u0103 exporta la pre\u0163uri mai competitive, sus\u0163in\u00e2nd cre\u015fterea economic\u0103. \u00cens\u0103, cu pre\u0163urile la orice \u00een cre\u015ftere dramatic\u0103, \u00eent\u0103rirea puterii de cump\u0103rare a devenit brusc mai important\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nEste un joc periculos. Sc\u0103pat\u0103 de sub control, aceast\u0103 competi\u0163ie interna\u0163ional\u0103 risc\u0103 s\u0103 declan\u015feze oscila\u0163ii dramatice ale valorii majorit\u0103\u0163ii monedelor dominante, s\u0103 afecteze produc\u0103torii care depin de exporturi, s\u0103 dea peste cap finan\u0163ele multina\u0163ionalelor \u015fi s\u0103 mi\u015fte poverile infla\u0163iei \u00een jurul lumii.<\/p>\n
\nR\u0103zboaiele valutare sunt un joc cu sum\u0103 zero. Sunt c\u00e2\u015ftig\u0103tori \u015fi perdan\u0163i. Toate \u0163\u0103rile \u201evor acela\u015fi lucru, dar acest lucru nu este posibil \u00een lumea valutar\u0103\u201c, avertizeaz\u0103 Alan Ruskin, strateg Deutsche Bank.<\/p>\n
\nDin 1985, c\u00e2nd a avut loc una dintre cele mai remarcabile interven\u0163ii guvernamentale de amploare de pe pie\u0163ele valutare, guvernele au intervenit rar at\u00e2t de explicit pentru a influen\u0163a valoarea monedelor. \u00cencerc\u0103rile mai subtile sunt mai obi\u015fnuite.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen r\u0103zboiul actual, dolarul american puternic are cel mai mult de pierdut. Aprecierea acestuia din 2022 s-a dovedit o binecuv\u00e2ntare pentru un Fed care \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 combat\u0103 cea mai accelerat\u0103 infla\u0163ie din patru decenii.<\/p>\n
\nAmerica nu se va mai bucura probabil mult timp de acest avantaj. Major\u0103rile de dob\u00e2nzi decise de b\u0103ncile centrale elve\u0163ian\u0103 \u015fi britanic\u0103 au ap\u0103sat deja asupra dolarului.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen ce m\u0103sur\u0103 exact contribuie aprecierea unei monede la reducerea infla\u0163iei r\u0103m\u00e2ne neclar. Gradul \u00een care un curs valutar afecteaz\u0103 indicatorul pre\u0163urilor de consum s-a dovedit minim, potrivit Citigroup. \u00cens\u0103 \u00eentr-o er\u0103 cu infla\u0163ia galopant\u0103, beneficiile ar putea fi mai mari.<\/p>\n
\nExper\u0163ii avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 orice interven\u0163ie guvernamental\u0103 presupune un risc ridicat de e\u015fec.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dispera\u0163i s\u0103 \u00eembl\u00e2nzeasc\u0103 cre\u015f\u00adte\u00adrea pre\u0163urilor, bancherii centrali se \u00eentrec \u00een a \u00eent\u0103ri puterea de cum\u00adp\u0103rare pe plan local \u00een detrimentul exportatorilor, potrivit Bloomberg Businessweek.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7267,184,340,186],"class_list":["post-205707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-banci","tag-inflatie","tag-preturi","tag-razboi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=205707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205707\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=205707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=205707"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=205707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}