{"id":205571,"date":"2022-06-20T19:05:31","date_gmt":"2022-06-20T19:05:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=205571"},"modified":"2022-06-20T19:05:31","modified_gmt":"2022-06-20T19:05:31","slug":"ar-putea-bnr-sa-majoreze-dobanda-de-referinta-intr-o-sedinta-de-urgenta-ce-spun-analistii-financiari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=205571","title":{"rendered":"Ar putea BNR s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 \u00eentr-o \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 de urgen\u0163\u0103? Ce spun anali\u015ftii financiari"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nDo<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\nb\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 a B\u0103ncii Na\u0163ionale a Rom\u00e2niei este \u00een acest moment de 3,75%, cea mai mic\u0103 din regiune. Spre compara\u0163ie, dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 din Ungaria este aproape dubl\u0103: 7,25%.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nFederal Reserve (Fed \u2013 banca central\u0103 a SUA) a majorat rata dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 cu 0,75 puncte procentuale, dup\u0103 o \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 care a durat dou\u0103 zile. Este cea mai abrupt\u0103 cre\u015ftere din ultimii 28 de ani. De asemenea, banca central\u0103 a Elve\u0163iei a surprins pie\u0163ele \u015fi a majorat dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 cu 50 de puncte de baz\u0103 (0,5 pp.). Peste noapte, pentru a treia oar\u0103 \u00een trei s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, banca central\u0103 din Ungaria a majorat dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 \u015fi a urcat-o la 7,25, adic\u0103 aproape dublu fa\u0163\u0103 de nivelul din Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n

\nRom\u00e2nia are \u00een acest moment o rat\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 (dob\u00e2nd\u0103 de referin\u0163\u0103) de 3,75%, cea mai mic\u0103 din regiune. Spre compara\u0163ie, \u00een Ungaria dob\u00e2n\u00adda de referin\u0163\u0103 este de 7,25%, aproape dubl\u0103, \u00een Polonia este de 6% \u015fi \u00een Cehia de 5,75%.  \u00centr-un climat \u00een care toate b\u0103ncile centrale \u00ee\u015fi \u00eent\u0103resc politica monetar\u0103, \u00een unele cazuri spre surprinderea pie\u0163elor, care sunt \u015fansele ca \u015fi Banca Na\u0163ional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei s\u0103 surprind\u0103 pia\u0163a \u015fi s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 \u00eenaintea \u015fedin\u0163ei de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103, programat\u0103 pentru 6 iulie?<\/p>\n

\n\u201eNu cred c\u0103 dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 va fi majorat\u0103 \u00eenainte. Mai este destul de pu\u0163in p\u00e2n\u0103 la urm\u0103toarea \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 \u015fi probabil c\u0103 atunci BNR va majora rata dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 cu 75 de puncte de baz\u0103\u201c, este de p\u0103rere Adrian Codirla\u015fu, vicepre\u015fedintele CFA Rom\u00e2nia, asocia\u0163ia anali\u015ftilor financiari.<\/p>\n

\nDe asemenea, Florin Andrei, analist economic \u015fi fost secretar de stat \u00een Ministerul Finan\u0163elor, este de p\u0103rere c\u0103 Banca Na\u0163ional\u0103 nu va majora dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 \u00eenainte de \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 din 6 iulie.\u201eM\u0103 \u00eendoiesc c\u0103 banca na\u0163ional\u0103 va face acest pas \u00eentr-o \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 neanun\u0163at\u0103, pentru c\u0103 ratele sunt peste Lombard (dob\u00e2nda la care b\u0103ncile iau \u00eemprumuturi pe termen scurt de la BNR \u2013 n. red.). ROBOR e la 6,17 (\u00een 17 iulie \u2013 n. red.), Lombard la 4,75.<\/p>\n

\nPia\u0163a este peste \u015fi, mai mult dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t, dac\u0103 BNR ar veni cu o modificare de dob\u00e2nda \u00eentr-o \u015fedin\u0163a nea\u015fteptat\u0103 ar crea volatilitate\u201c, argumenteaz\u0103 Florin Andrei.<\/p>\n

\nDe altfel, \u015fi reac\u0163ia Fed de a majora dob\u00e2nda cu 0,75 pp., prima de acest gen din ultimii 28 de ani, a creat volatilitate \u00een pia\u0163\u0103, a mai ad\u0103ugat el. De asemenea, unii economi\u015fti sunt de p\u0103rere c\u0103 Fed a avut o reac\u0163ie exagerat\u0103 prin cre\u015fterea abrupt\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie, spune \u015fi Adrian Codirla\u015fu.<\/p>\n

\n\u201eSunt \u015fi p\u0103reri c\u0103 Fed a reac\u0163ionat exagerat. Dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m, pare c\u0103 infla\u0163ia \u00een State a atins v\u00e2rful. Infla\u0163ia se \u00eenv\u00e2rte \u00een jurul aceleia\u015fi valori \u015fi apare ideea c\u0103 se plafoneaz\u0103\u201c, spune Codirla\u015fu.<\/p>\n

\nCu o infla\u0163ie de 14,5%, rata dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 este, \u00een acest moment, de 3,75%, dup\u0103 ce Banca Na\u0163ional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei a majorat-o cu \u00eenc\u0103 75 de puncte de baz\u0103 \u00een mai. La finalul lui 2021, dob\u00e2nda-cheie a BNR era de 1,75%, c\u00e2nd infla\u0163ia era de 8,2%. Prima majorare din acest an a venit \u00een ianuarie (\u01020,25 pp.), ca mai apoi BNR s\u0103 mai majoreze de \u00eenc\u0103 trei ori dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103.<\/p>\n

\nCre\u015fterea dob\u00e2nzilor tempereaz\u0103 consumul, scad unele pre\u0163uri deci, \u00eens\u0103 exist\u0103 \u015fi reversul medaliei: cre\u015fterile prea bru\u015fte de dob\u00e2nzi pot bloca economia, de aici \u015fi reticen\u0163a multor b\u0103nci centrale de a duce o politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 prea agresiv\u0103 \u00een prim\u0103 faz\u0103. Cu toate acestea, cre\u015fterea infla\u0163iei mult peste a\u015ftept\u0103ri a determinat reac\u0163ii din partea tuturor b\u0103ncilor centrale \u015fi singurul instrument pe care acestea le au la \u00eendem\u00e2n\u0103 pentru a \u00eencerca s\u0103 tempereze cre\u015fterea pre\u0163urilor este urcarea dob\u00e2nzilor, pentru a fr\u00e2na creditarea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Federal Reserve (Fed \u2013 banca central\u0103 a SUA) a majorat rata dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 cu 0,75 puncte procentuale, dup\u0103 o \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 care a durat dou\u0103 zile.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7734,185,7458,11056,9287,428],"class_list":["post-205571","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-analisti","tag-bnr","tag-dobanda","tag-financiar","tag-majorare","tag-sedinta"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205571","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=205571"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/205571\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=205571"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=205571"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=205571"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}