{"id":204222,"date":"2022-05-09T20:31:58","date_gmt":"2022-05-09T20:31:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=204222"},"modified":"2022-05-09T20:31:58","modified_gmt":"2022-05-09T20:31:58","slug":"urca-bnr-dobanda-cheie-de-la-3-la-35-sau-pana-la-4-avand-in-vedere-perspectivele-ca-inflatia-sa-avanseze-spre-11-12-sau-chiar-peste-in-timp-ce-economia-incetineste-parerile-analistilor-sunt-impartit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=204222","title":{"rendered":"Urc\u0103 BNR dob\u00e2nda-cheie de la 3% la 3,5% sau p\u00e2n\u0103 la 4% av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere perspectivele ca infla\u0163ia s\u0103 avanseze spre 11-12% sau chiar peste \u00een timp ce economia \u00eencetine\u015fte? P\u0103rerile anali\u015ftilor sunt \u00eemp\u0103r\u0163ite"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\u2666<\/span><\/span> Ionu\u0163 Dumitru, economistul-\u015fef al Raiffeisen Bank, crede c\u0103 BNR va men\u0163ine pasul de majorare a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la 0,5 pp, rata urm\u00e2d s\u0103 creasc\u0103 de la 3% la 3,5% \u2666<\/span><\/span> Economi\u015ftii-\u015fefi de la BCR \u015fi ING Bank anticipeaz\u0103 cre\u015fterea ratei-cheie de la 3% la 4% \u2666<\/span><\/span> Boardul BNR va aproba ast\u0103zi \u015fi raportul trimestrial asupra infla\u0163iei, anali\u015ftii a\u015ftept\u00e2nd o prognoz\u0103 majorat\u0103.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\nA\u015ftept\u0103rile de continuare a cre\u015fterii infla\u0163iei spre 11-12% sau chiar peste acest nivel vor determina BNR s\u0103 majoreze ast\u0103zi rata-cheie la \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103, \u00eens\u0103 p\u0103rerile anali\u015ftilor privind amploarea major\u0103rii sunt \u00eemp\u0103r\u0163ite. \u00cen timp ce unii anali\u015fti v\u0103d posibil\u0103 o cre\u015ftere a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie cu un pas mai mare, de la 3% p\u00e2n\u0103 la 4%, al\u0163ii consider\u0103 c\u0103 banca central\u0103 va men\u0163ine pasul de cre\u015ftere de 50 puncte de baz\u0103 (0,5 puncte procentuale), la 3,5%, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere \u015fi perspectivele de \u00eencetinire a economiei \u00een 2022 spre 2-3%.<\/p>\n

\nCea mai recent\u0103 majorare a dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a fost operat\u0103 de BNR \u00een luna aprilie, de la 2,5% la 3%. Din luna februarie 2022, BNR a m\u0103rit caden\u0163a \u015fi a majorat dob\u00e2nda-cheie cu 0,5 puncte procentuale, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 2,5%, dup\u0103 ce la precedentele trei \u015fedin\u0163e de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a mizat pe pa\u015fi mici opt\u00e2nd pentru major\u0103ri de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 cu 0,25 puncte procentuale de fiecare dat\u0103.<\/p>\n

\nRecent, banca na\u0163ional\u0103 a Cehiei a majorat dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 cu 75 puncte, la 5,75%, cre\u015ftere peste estim\u0103rile anali\u015ftilor. \u015ei banca na\u0163ional\u0103 a Poloniei a anun\u0163at majorarea dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u0163\u0103 cu 75 de puncte, la 5,25%.<\/p>\n

\nBCR, a doua cea mai mare banc\u0103 din pia\u0163\u0103 dup\u0103 active, anticipeaz\u0103 o nou\u0103 majorare a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie p\u00e2n\u0103 la 4%, de la nivelul actual de 3%, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere infla\u0163ia mare, dar \u015fi deciziile recente ale b\u0103ncilor centrale din Polonia \u015fi Cehia \u015fi faptul c\u0103 urm\u0103toarea \u00eentrunire a boardului BNR va fi de-abia \u00een iulie.<\/p>\n

\n\u201eNe a\u015ftept\u0103m ca BNR s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda-cheie cu 100 puncte de baz\u0103 (1 pp – n.red.), la 4% la \u015fedin\u0163a boardului din 10 mai\u201c, anticipeaz\u0103 Dasc\u0103lu.<\/p>\n

\n \u201eRata dob\u00e2nzii la facilitatea de credit (Lombard – n.red.), care ar trebui s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 instrumentul de politic\u0103 opera\u0163ional relevant \u00een condi\u0163ii de politic\u0103 de management str\u00e2ns al lichidit\u0103\u0163ii, ar trebui s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la 5%. Vedem rata terminal\u0103 la 5,50% pentru rata-cheie \u015fi 6,50% pentru facilitatea de credit p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul acestui an\u00ee, adaug\u0103 el.<\/p>\n

\nEl a explicat c\u0103 deciziile recente ale b\u0103ncilor centrale din Polonia \u015fi Cehia vor convinge BNR s\u0103 fac\u0103 o mi\u015fcare mai \u00eendraznea\u0163\u0103 av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 ratele dob\u00e2nzii la noi sunt deja \u00een urm\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de cele din alte \u0163\u0103ri. \u00cen plus, dup\u0103 10 mai, urm\u0103toarea \u015fedin\u0163\u0103 a BNR este programat\u0103 pentru 6 iulie, \u00een timp ce \u00eentre timp alte b\u0103nci centrale din regiunea ECE au \u00eent\u00e2lniri la care se a\u015fteapt\u0103 s\u0103 majoreze \u00een continuare dob\u00e2nzile.<\/p>\n

\n\u015ei Valentin T\u0103taru, economistul-\u015fef al ING Bank, estimeaz\u0103 o cre\u015ftere a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie tot cu 100 de puncte de baz\u0103 (1 pp) de la 3% la 4%, care va fi \u201cn continuare cea mai sc\u0103zut\u0103 rat\u0103-cheie din regiunea Europei Centrale \u015fi de Est (CEE4).<\/p>\n

\n\u201c\u00cen esen\u0163\u0103, pu\u0163ine s-au schimbat pentru BNR de la \u00eent\u00e2lnirea din aprilie, deoarece persist\u0103 acela\u015fi context inconfortabil de cre\u015ftere mai lent\u0103 \u015fi infla\u0163ie mai mare. O cre\u015ftere a ratei cheie cu 100 puncte de baz\u0103 (1 pp-n.red.) nu va \u00eensemna neap\u0103rat o nou\u0103 pozi\u0163ie a politicii monetare, dar va men\u0163ine, \u00een linii mari, decalajul fa\u0163\u0103 de alte b\u0103nci centrale din CEE4. Situa\u0163ia neobi\u015fnuit\u0103 \u00een care Rom\u00e2nia are cel mai stabil curs de schimb \u015fi cea mai mic\u0103 rat\u0103-cheie, \u00een timp ce \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 \u015fi deficite gemene semnificative, ar putea continua \u015fi dup\u0103 acest an\u201d, sus\u0163ine economistul \u015fef al ING Bank.<\/p>\n

\nT\u0103taru consider\u0103 c\u0103 exist\u0103 \u015fi o probabilitate relativ mic\u0103, dar deloc neglijabil\u0103 (15%) ca BNR s\u0103 exind\u0103 coridorul simetric \u00een jurul ratei-cheie de la 100 la 125 de puncte de baz\u0103, ceea ce ar putea sus\u0163ine o eventual\u0103 majorare mai temperat\u0103 a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cIonu\u0163 Dumitru, economistul-\u015fef al Raiffeisen Bank, este de p\u0103rere c\u0103 BNR va men\u0163ine pasul de majorare a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la 50 puncte de baz\u0103 (0,5 pp), el anticip\u00e2nd cre\u015fterea ratei de la 3%, la 3,5%. Credem c\u0103 BNR va men\u0163ine pasul de cre\u015ftere a dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la 50 de puncte de baz\u0103. Vedem un ciclu mai lung de \u00eent\u0103rire a politicii monetare \u00een pa\u015fi de 50 de puncte de baz\u0103 (0,5 pp)\u201d, sus\u0163ine Dumitru.<\/p>\n

\nBNR ar trebui s\u0103 publice \u015fi prognoza actualizat\u0103 a infla\u0163iei IPC dup\u0103 \u00eent\u00e2lnirea boardului.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cVedem infla\u0163ia la 11,5% p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului dup\u0103 ce atinge un v\u00e2rf \u00een jurul valorii de 12% \u00een iunie, cu infla\u0163ia de baz\u0103 converg\u00e2nd la nivelul maxim p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului\u201d, sus\u0163ine economistul-\u015fef al BCR.<\/p>\n

\nEconomistul-\u015fef al ING Bank vorb\u015fete despre o infla\u0163ie medie de 10,7% \u00een acest an \u015fi rat\u0103  a infla\u0163iei de 9,9% \u00een decembrie 2022.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cLa \u015fedin\u0163a din 10 mai, BNR va aproba cel mai recent Raport asupra infla\u0163iei, care ar trebui s\u0103 includ\u0103 previziuni de infla\u0163ie revizuite mai sus pentru infla\u0163ia general\u0103 \u015fi brusc mai mari pentru infla\u0163ia de baz\u0103. Acum estim\u0103m infla\u0163ia medie \u00een 2022 la 10,7%, cu o infla\u0163ie la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului de 9,9%. Pentru 2023, ne men\u0163inem prognoza sub consens cu o infla\u0163ie medie de 6,1%, deoarece contextul extern ar putea deveni mai util, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere riscurile de recesiune care se profileaz\u0103 \u00een zona euro\u201d, explic\u0103 Valentin T\u0103taru.<\/p>\n

\nRata anual\u0103 a infla\u0163iei a urcat \u00een luna martie la dou\u0103 cifre, ajung\u00e2nd la aproape 10,2%.<\/p>\n

\n\u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte evolu\u0163ia economiei Rom\u00e2niei \u00een acest an, prognozele au \u00eenceput s\u0103 fie ajustate spre 2-3% sau chiar mai pu\u0163in.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A\u015ftept\u0103rile de continuare a cre\u015fterii infla\u0163iei spre 11-12% sau chiar peste acest nivel vor determina BNR s\u0103 majoreze ast\u0103zi rata-cheie la \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103, \u00eens\u0103 p\u0103rerile anali\u015ftilor privind amploarea major\u0103rii sunt \u00eemp\u0103r\u0163ite.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7734,185,9805,13726,1204],"class_list":["post-204222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-analisti","tag-bnr","tag-dobanda-cheie","tag-economist","tag-inflatia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204222","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=204222"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/204222\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=204222"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=204222"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=204222"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}