\n\u00cens\u0103, \u00een contextul perspectivelor de \u00eencetinire a economiei spre 3%, exist\u0103 \u015fi posibi\u00adlita\u00adtea unei major\u0103ri a ratei-cheie cu doar 0,25 puncte procentuale, combi\u00adna\u00adt\u0103 cu extinderea coridorului si\u00adme\u00adtric din jurul ratei-cheie, de la 100 la 125 de puncte de baz\u0103 (1,25 pp).<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen luna februarie, BNR a m\u0103rit caden\u0163a \u015fi a majorat dob\u00e2nda-cheie cu 0,5 puncte procentuale, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 2,5%, dup\u0103 ce la precedentele trei \u015fe\u00addin\u0163e de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 a mizat pe pa\u015fi mici opt\u00e2nd pentru major\u0103ri de do\u00adb\u00e2nd\u0103 cu 0,25 puncte procentuale de fiecare dat\u0103. BNR anticipa atunci o infla\u0163ie de dou\u0103 cifre \u00een trimestrul al doilea, \u00een principal ca urmare a ma\u00adjo\u00adr\u0103rii mai ample ale pre\u0163urilor gazelor naturale \u015fi energiei electrice, noteaz\u0103 ZF.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eNe a\u015ftept\u0103m ca BNR s\u0103 majo\u00adre\u00adze dob\u00e2nda-cheie cu 50 pb (puncte de baz\u0103 – n.red.; 0,50 pp) la 3% la \u015fe\u00addin\u0163a boardului din 5 aprilie. Rata fa\u00adci\u00adlit\u0103\u0163ii de credit, care r\u0103m\u00e2ne instru\u00admentul de politic\u0103 opera\u0163ional rele\u00advant \u00een cadrul politicii stricte de ges\u00adtio\u00adnare a lichidit\u0103\u0163ii, ar trebui s\u0103 atin\u00adg\u0103 4%. Indicii pie\u0163ei monetare rele\u00advan\u0163i pentru transmiterea politicii mo\u00adnetare sunt semnificativ mai mari fa\u0163\u0103 de nivelul dob\u00e2nzii la facilitatea de credit, de\u015fi \u00eenc\u0103 sub indicii echi\u00adva\u00adlen\u0163i din ECE. Ac\u0163iunile b\u0103ncilor cen\u00adtrale din regiune par s\u0103 fi pierdut recent o parte din importan\u0163\u0103 \u00een procesul decizional al BNR\u201c, sus\u0163ine Ciprian Dasc\u0103lu, economistul-\u015fef al BCR.<\/p>\n
\nRata anual\u0103 a infla\u0163iei a conti\u00adnuat s\u0103 creasc\u0103 urc\u00e2nd p\u00e2n\u0103 la 8,53% \u00een februarie 2022, fa\u0163\u0103 de 8,35% \u00een ia\u00adnuarie, dar sub a\u015ftept\u0103rile economi\u015f\u00adti\u00adlor. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte cursul de schimb leu\/euro, acesta a r\u0103mas re\u00adlativ stabil, cub 4,95 lei\/euro.<\/p>\n
\nSpre deosebire de b\u0103ncile cen\u00adtrale comparabile, BNR nu pare s\u0103 fa\u00advorizeze combaterea infla\u0163iei prin \u00eent\u0103rirea monedei na\u0163ionale \u00een fa\u0163a euro. BNR vizeaz\u0103 o volatilitate sc\u0103\u00adzut\u0103 a cursului de schimb leu\/euro, per\u00admi\u0163\u00e2nd probabil o depreciere treptat\u0103 \u00een continuare a leului, explic\u0103 Dasc\u0103lu.<\/p>\n
\nEl aduce \u00een discu\u0163ie o implicare puternic\u0103 a BNR pe pia\u0163a valutar\u0103 pentru a asigura stabilitatea valutar\u0103 \u00een primele s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni de r\u0103zboi din Ucraina, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere importan\u00ad\u0163a cursului de schimb \u00een func\u0163ia de reac\u0163ie a BNR.<\/p>\n
\nRezervele valutare la BNR au sc\u0103\u00adzut cu 1,73 mld. euro \u00een mar\u00adtie fa\u0163\u0103 de februarie, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 40,1 mld. euro, dup\u0103 ce \u00een cursul lunii au intrat \u00een rezerva b\u0103ncii centrale 2,91 mld. euro \u015fi au ie\u015fit 4,64 mld. euro.<\/p>\n
\nNoua prognoz\u0103 preliminar\u0103 a BNR privind infla\u0163ia, nepublic\u0103, ar tre\u00adbui s\u0103 aduc\u0103 o revizuire \u00een sc\u0103dere a infla\u0163iei IPC \u00een urm\u0103toarele patru tri\u00admestre dup\u0103 extinderea guverna\u00admen\u00adtal\u0103 a m\u0103surilor antiinfla\u0163ioniste pen\u00adtru pre\u0163urile energiei. \u00cen acela\u015fi timp, perspectivele pentru infla\u0163ia de baz\u0103 (CORE) ar trebui urce \u00een ur\u00adm\u0103toarele dou\u0103sprezece luni, men\u0163i\u00adn\u00e2n\u00addu-se probabil peste intervalul-\u0163int\u0103 al BNR pe \u00eentregul orizont de po\u00adlitic\u0103, apreciaz\u0103 economistul-\u015fef al BCR.<\/p>\n
\n\u201ePrin urmare, BNR s-ar putea a\u015f\u00adtep\u00adta la presiuni infla\u0163ioniste limitate, de\u00adterminate de cererea intern\u0103 ac\u00adtua\u00adl\u0103 \u00een trimestrele urm\u0103toare, de\u015fi efec\u00adte\u00adle \u00eent\u00e2rziate ar trebui s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 infla\u00ad\u0163ia de baz\u0103 ridicat\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103toa\u00adre\u00adle trimestre. Vedem \u00eenc\u0103 dou\u0103 cre\u015f\u00adteri ale ratei-cheie, de 25 pb (puncte de baz\u0103 – n.red.) fiecare, din partea BNR p\u00e2n\u0103 la 3,5% la jum\u0103tatea anu\u00adlui, cu facilitatea de credit, care ar tre\u00adbui s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 instrumentul opera\u00ad\u0163io\u00adnal relevant \u00een cadrul politicii de control ferm al lichidit\u0103\u0163ii, ajung\u00e2nd la 4,5%\u201c, men\u0163ioneaz\u0103 Dasc\u0103lu.<\/p>\n
\n\u015ei Valentin T\u0103taru, economistul-\u015fef al ING Bank, estimeaz\u0103 o cre\u015ftere a dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 cu 50 de puncte de baz\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la 3%, care va fi \u00een continuare cea mai mic\u0103 rat\u0103-cheie din regiunea CEE 4. \u201ePe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 \u00eencetine\u015fte, argumentele pentru rate mai mari se estompeaz\u0103, dar \u00eenc\u0103 ne a\u015ftept\u0103m s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la 4,5% \u00een acest an\u201c, anticipeaz\u0103 el.<\/p>\n
\nEl aduce \u00een discu\u0163ie \u015fi o alt\u0103 posibil\u0103 m\u0103sur\u0103, cu o probabilitate relativ mic\u0103, dar deloc neglijabil\u0103 (15%) ca BNR s\u0103 extind\u0103 culoarul simetric \u00een jurul ratei cheie de la 100 la 125 de puncte de baz\u0103 (1,25 pp) la una din urm\u0103toarele dou\u0103 \u00eent\u00e2lniri. Acest lucru ar oferi, \u00een esen\u0163\u0103, \u00eenc\u0103 25 de puncte de baz\u0103 (0,25 pp) de \u00een\u0103sprire \u015fi ar putea justifica major\u0103ri mai mici ale ratelor.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen februarie, Consiliul de administra\u0163ie al BNR a decis s\u0103 majoreze rata dob\u00e2nzii pentru facilitatea de creditare (Lombard) la 3,5% pe an, de la 3% pe an \u015fi s\u0103 creasc\u0103 rata dob\u00e2nzii la facilitatea de depozit la 1,5%, de la 1% pe an, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu data de 10 februarie 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
A\u015ftept\u0103rile de continuare a cre\u015fterii infla\u0163iei, chiar dac\u0103 sub estim\u0103rile ini\u0163iale, ar putea determina BNR s\u0103 majoreze, mar\u0163i, la \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103, ratacheie tot cu 0,50 puncte procentuale (pp), ca \u015fi \u00een luna februarie, p\u00e2n\u0103 la 3%, dup\u0103 cum anticipeaz\u0103 unii anali\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[185,7458],"class_list":["post-203095","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bnr","tag-dobanda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203095","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=203095"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/203095\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=203095"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=203095"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=203095"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}