\nCercet\u0103torul Octavian Jurma estimeaz\u0103 dobor\u00e2rea recordului provocat de valul Delta \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, de aproape 19.000 de cazuri zilnice, chiar \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103. Valul deceselor urmeaz\u0103 abia la 3 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni dup\u0103 cel al infect\u0103rilor, atrage aten\u0163ia medicul. <\/p>\n
\n\u201eS\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 am asistat la o explozie a num\u0103rului de cazuri \u015fi la un nou record pandemic cu o cre\u015ftere s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2nal\u0103 de 288%. Comparativ cu valul Delta, valul Omicron a crescut procentual mai mult \u00een 1 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na dec\u00e2t \u00een a crescut procentual valul Delta \u00een 4 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni (inclusiv \u00een perioada cu cea mai rapid\u0103 cre\u015ftere)! Chiar dac\u0103 aceast\u0103 cre\u015ftere se reduce la jum\u0103tate, \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 tot vom dep\u0103\u015fi cu certitudine 10.000 de cazuri pe zi \u00eenc\u0103 de mar\u0163i. Dac\u0103 \u00een schimb acest\u0103 cre\u015fterea se men\u0163ine la nivele apropiate de cele de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 (lucru foarte probabil), vom dep\u0103\u015fi cu siguran\u0163\u0103 15.000 de cazuri pe zi \u015fi e posibil chiar s\u0103 dep\u0103\u015fim deja \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na recordul de 18.863 de cazuri atins \u00een valul 4-Delta. Este o cre\u015ftere \u015focant\u0103 a num\u0103rului de infect\u0103ri, at\u00e2t de rapid\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t este greu de procesat mental \u015fi emo\u0163ional\u201d, scrie medicul pe Facebook.<\/p>\n
\nPotrivit acestuia, este posibil ca valul de infect\u0103ri din valul 5-Omicron s\u0103 ajung\u0103 la maximul valului 4-Delta \u00eenainte ca valul de spitaliz\u0103ri s\u0103 debuteze (valul de intern\u0103ri debuteaz\u0103 \u00een medie la 2 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni dup\u0103 valul de infect\u0103ri, iar cel de decese la 3 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni): \u201enum\u0103rul de spitaliz\u0103ri va cre\u015fte u\u015for \u00eenc\u0103 din aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103, \u00eens\u0103 abia de s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare valul va izbi \u00een for\u0163\u0103 spitalele. Din p\u0103cate se confirm\u0103 \u015fi \u00een Rom\u00e2nia c\u0103 valul Omicron va cre\u015fte num\u0103rul de spitaliz\u0103ri \u00een r\u00e2ndul minorilor. Chiar dac\u0103 num\u0103rul de spitaliz\u0103ri la toate categoriile de v\u00e2rst\u0103 a crescut s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 cu doar 3.6%, \u00een r\u00e2ndul copiilor spitaliz\u0103rile au crescut cu 69%, un nou record pandemic (\u015fi aceast\u0103 cre\u015ftere nu reflect\u0103 deschiderea \u015fcolilor)\u201d.<\/p>\n
\nValul deceselor urmeaz\u0103 abia la 3 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni dup\u0103 cel al infect\u0103rilor \u015fi prin urmare num\u0103rul de decese poate fi \u00een sc\u0103dere \u015fi \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na pe fondul sc\u0103derii valului Delta., spune medicul, potrivit c\u0103ruia \u00een r\u00e2ndul tinerilor \u015fi adul\u0163ilor activi (20-59 ani) se constat\u0103 o u\u015foar\u0103 cre\u015ftere de 6.9% a num\u0103rului de decese la 24h. Acest lucru nu poate fi, \u00eens\u0103, atribuit categoric Omicron, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 \u015fi infect\u0103rile cu Delta au fost \u00een u\u015foar\u0103 cre\u015ftere \u00een aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eDe s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare vom vedea \u015fi impactul deschiderii \u015fcolilor \u00een format fizic. Tot s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na viitoare vom dep\u0103\u015fi cu certitudine 25.000 de cazuri pe zi \u015fi e posibil s\u0103 ne atingem \u015fi limita capacit\u0103\u0163ii de testare \u00een jurul a 30-40.000 de cazuri pe zi. Rom\u00e2nii au decis cu entuziasm s\u0103 lase \u015fi valul 5-Omicron s\u0103 trec\u0103 la fel de pu\u0163in stingherit ca valul 4-Delta \u015fi s\u0103 \u00eel \u00eent\u00eempine la fel de pu\u0163in proteja\u0163i. Vedem c\u0103 virusul \u015fi-a \u0163inut promisiunea \u015fi a sosit \u00een for\u0163\u0103 a\u015fa cum a anun\u0163at \u00een urm\u0103 cu o lun\u0103. Pandemia este \u00een continuare mult mai predicitibil\u0103 dec\u00e2t clasa politic\u0103 \u015fi autorit\u0103\u0163ile. De data asta \u00eens\u0103 virusul se mi\u015fc\u0103 at\u00e2t de repede \u00eenc\u00e2t nu mai putem evalua la fel de corect consecin\u0163ele impactului s\u0103u, mai ales c\u0103 popula\u0163ia nu mai este nici pe departe la fel de omogen\u0103 \u00een privin\u0163a imunit\u0103\u0163ii ca la debutul pandemiei. \u00cen cur\u00e2nd \u00eens\u0103 urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 afl\u0103m \u015fi care va fi pre\u0163ul pentru aceast\u0103 indiferen\u0163\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 de s\u0103n\u0103tatea \u015fi via\u0163a semenilor no\u015ftri mai vulnerabili dec\u00e2t noi, \u00eentre care se num\u0103r\u0103 nu doar cei b\u0103tr\u00e2ni \u015fi vulnerabili, care <oricum mureau>, dar \u015fi cei mici, pe care \u00eei oblig\u0103m cu cinism s\u0103 porneasc\u0103 cu un handicap \u00een via\u0163\u0103\u201d, \u00ee\u015fi termin\u0103 cercet\u0103torul postarea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Cercet\u0103torul Octavian Jurma estimeaz\u0103 dobor\u00e2rea recordului provocat de valul Delta \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, de aproape 19.000 de cazuri zilnice, chiar \u00een aceast\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103. Valul deceselor urmeaz\u0103 abia la 3 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni dup\u0103 cel al infect\u0103rilor, atrage aten\u0163ia medicul. \u201eS\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 am asistat la o explozie a num\u0103rului de cazuri \u015fi la un nou record pandemic cu o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[15188,14046,8062,33223,50005,2616,33224],"class_list":["post-200426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-cazuri","tag-decese","tag-delta","tag-infectare","tag-jurma","tag-previziuni","tag-socant"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200426","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=200426"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/200426\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=200426"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=200426"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=200426"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}