\n\u00cen Rom\u00e2nia, infla\u0163ia a ajuns \u00een noiembrie 2021 la 7,8% fa\u0163\u0103 de noiembrie 2020, dup\u0103 ce \u00een octombrie a fost de 7,94% fa\u0163\u0103 de octombrie 2020. Aceast\u0103 sc\u0103dere se datoreaz\u0103 plafon\u0103rii pre\u0163urilor la gaze \u015fi energie.<\/p>\n
\n\u00centr-un raport adresat investitorilor, v\u0103zut de ZF, economi\u015ftii de la J.P. Morgan spun c\u0103 infla\u0163ia va cre\u015fte la un v\u00e2rf de 9% \u00een trimestru al doilea din 2022, dup\u0103 ce va expira plafonarea pre\u0163urilor la energie \u015fi gaze.<\/p>\n
\nRaportul semnat de Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, fost economist la ING Bank Rom\u00e2nia, \u015fi care acum lucreaz\u0103 la Londra pentru J.P. Morgan, semnaleaz\u0103 faptul c\u0103 BNR este prea optimist\u0103 \u00een privin\u0163a evolu\u0163iei infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nP\u00e2n\u0103 acum BNR a ac\u0163ionat prea t\u00e2rziu \u015fi prea pu\u0163in \u00een majorarea dob\u00e2nzii de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 ceea ce va implica major\u0103ri mai mari ulterioare, cum ar fi \u00een \u015fedin\u0163a din 10 ianuarie 2022, c\u00e2nd Banca ar putea cre\u015fte dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 cu 0,5%.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen \u015fedin\u0163a din noiembrie, spre surprinderea anali\u015ftilor, BNR a majorat dob\u00e2nda cu numai 0,25%, de la 1,5% la 1,75%, c\u00e2nd pia\u0163a se a\u015ftepta la o cre\u015ftere la 2%. BNR a sacrificat infla\u0163ia pentru a sus\u0163ine economia \u015fi creditarea care \u00een T4 au \u00eenceput s\u0103 dea \u00eenapoi.<\/p>\n
\nConform celui mai recent raport \u00een privin\u0163a infla\u0163iei, BNR crede c\u0103 ar putea readuce infla\u0163ia la 3%, \u0163inta B\u0103ncii Centrale \u00een T3 din 2023.<\/p>\n
\nPotrivit J.P. Morgan, BNR prognozeaz\u0103, din nou, o infla\u0163ie prea mic\u0103 pe termen mediu, iar dintr-o perspectiv\u0103 regional\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia continu\u0103 s\u0103 aib\u0103 cea mai sc\u0103zut\u0103 infla\u0163ie de baz\u0103 (core \u2013 n.red), u\u015for sub cea din Polonia \u015fi mult sub cea din Cehia, Ungaria \u015fi Germania.<\/p>\n
\nEconomi\u015ftii noteaz\u0103 c\u0103 BNR a reac\u0163ionat cel mai pu\u0163in la cre\u015fterea infla\u0163iei. De asemenea, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere politica guvernului, este probabil ca cre\u015fterea salariilor s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 robust\u0103, chiar dac\u0103 pia\u0163a for\u0163ei de munc\u0103 nu se va \u00een\u0103spri at\u00e2t de mult pe c\u00e2t se a\u015fteapt\u0103.\u200b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Echipa de economi\u015fti de la J.P. Morgan consider\u0103 c\u0103 Banca Na\u0163ional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei (BNR) va fi nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 majoreze dob\u00e2nda de referin\u0163\u0103 la 5,5% \u00een 2023 pentru a reduce infla\u0163ia, care a crescut la cote nemaiv\u0103zute din anii \u201970, cel pu\u0163in \u00een SUA.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[8225,9414],"class_list":["post-199761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-analiza","tag-jp-morgan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199761","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=199761"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199761\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=199761"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=199761"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=199761"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}