\nBanca Central\u0103 European\u0103 ezit\u0103 \u00een continuare s\u0103 renun\u0163e la pozi\u0163ia potrivit c\u0103reia cre\u015fterea infla\u0163iei este una temporar\u0103, spre deosebire de banca central\u0103 american\u0103 (Fed). Dife\u00adren\u0163a de opinie dintre cele dou\u0103 b\u0103nci centrale genereaz\u0103 nesiguran\u0163\u0103 pe pia\u0163\u0103, anali\u015ftii \u015fi economi\u015ftii \u00eencer\u00adc\u00e2nd s\u0103 determine cine are dreptate.<\/p>\n
\nUnii anali\u015fti consider\u0103 c\u0103 ambele b\u0103nci au dreptate av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere contextele lor diferite, de\u015fi BCE este mai expus\u0103 riscului unei politici gre\u015fite \u00een urm\u0103toarele luni, scrie Kathimerini.<\/p>\n
\nDivergen\u0163a de direc\u0163ie a politicii monetare este justificat\u0103, cel pu\u0163in pe baza dovezilor actuale, consider\u0103 Fabio Balboni, economist HSBC. Acesta explic\u0103 faptul c\u0103 \u00een SUA redresarea este \u00eentr-o faz\u0103 mai avansat\u0103, presiunile infla\u0163ioniste s-au acumulat mai rapid, \u015fi mai important, dinamica de pe pia\u0163a muncii duce la presiuni mai puternice asupra salariilor. P\u00e2n\u0103 acum \u00een Europa, exist\u0103 dovezi limitate ale unui impact al infla\u0163iei ridicate asupra salariilor, iar ajustarea pie\u0163ei muncii este mai gradual\u0103 dec\u00e2t \u00een SUA. Iar aceasta reduce riscul materializ\u0103rii unui ciclu vicios \u00eentre salarii \u015fi infla\u0163ie.<\/p>\n
\n\u201e\u00cen plus\u201c, adaug\u0103 Balboni, \u201eBCE trebuie s\u0103 aib\u0103 grij\u0103 de 19 \u0163\u0103ri, unele dintre care sunt \u00een faza incipient\u0103 a redres\u0103rii \u015fi au nevoie \u00een continuare de sus\u0163inere\u201c.<\/p>\n
\n\u201e\u00centreb\u0103rile reale sunt dac\u0103 infla\u0163ia va \u00eencepe s\u0103 scad\u0103 la \u00eenceputul anului viitor \u015fi la cel nivel se va stabiliza \u00een aceast\u0103 lume nou\u0103\u201c, noteaz\u0103 Frederik Ducrozet, global strategist \u00een cadrul Pictet Wealth Mana\u00adgement. \u201eCred c\u0103 ambele b\u0103nci centrale vor continua s\u0103 a\u015ftepte ca infla\u0163ia s\u0103 se tempereze la un anumit punct \u00een prima jum\u0103tate a anului viitor, \u015fi am\u00e2ndou\u0103 vor avea dreptate\u201c.<\/p>\n
\nAcesta arat\u0103 c\u0103 se a\u015fteapt\u0103 ca infla\u0163ia din zona euro s\u0103 ating\u0103 un v\u00e2rf \u00een noiembrie \u015fi s\u0103 scad\u0103 puternic \u00een ianuarie. Exist\u0103 totu\u015fi un risc ridicat ca BCE s\u0103 se \u00een\u015fele cu privire la infla\u0163ie, adaug\u0103 Ducrozet. Lucrurile stau pu\u0163in diferit pentru Fed. V\u00e2rful infla\u0163iei va veni la \u00eenceputul anului 2022, exist\u00e2nd riscul ca infla\u0163ia s\u0103 persiste vreme mai \u00eendelungat\u0103 dec\u00e2t se anticipase.<\/p>\n
\nSalomon Fiedler, economist Berenberg, spune c\u0103 at\u00e2t Fed-ul, c\u00e2t \u015fi BCE \u201epot avea dreptate cu privire la caracterul tranzitoriu al infla\u0163iei, \u00eentr-un sens. Actualele rate foarte ridicate ale infla\u0163iei de ambele p\u0103r\u0163i ale Atlanticului con\u0163in cu siguran\u0163\u0103 mari componente tranzitorii\u201c.<\/p>\n
\nZsolt Darvas, economist Bruegel, invoc\u0103 trei factori ce sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 BCE ar trebui s\u0103 fie mai prudent\u0103 dec\u00e2t Fed-ul: stimulentele fiscale au fost mai ample \u00een SUA dec\u00e2t \u00een zona euro, caracteristicile structural ale economiei zonei euro sunt diferite de cele din economia american\u0103, ultimul indicator de baz\u0103 al infla\u0163iei este de 4,1% \u00een SUA, \u00een timp ce \u00een zona euro se situeaz\u0103 la 2,6%.<\/p>\n
\nPotrivit lui Hans-Werner Sinn, fost director al institutului german ifo, strategia BCE a dob\u00e2nzilor ultrasc\u0103zute \u015fi achizi\u0163iilor de obliga\u0163iuni va declan\u015fa o cre\u015ftere puternic\u0103 a infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nDin cauza nesiguran\u0163ei privind traiectoria infla\u0163iei, americanii pun bani la saltea.<\/p>\n
\nPotrivit Fitch Ratings, gra\u0163ie nivelului ridicat al economiilor acumulate \u00een pandemie, pozi\u0163iile financiare ale gospod\u0103riilor din Europa \u015fi SUA r\u0103m\u00e2n favorabile. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103 ezit\u0103 \u00een continuare s\u0103 renun\u0163e la pozi\u0163ia potrivit c\u0103reia cre\u015fterea infla\u0163iei este una temporar\u0103, spre deosebire de banca central\u0103 american\u0103 (Fed). <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[20170,8830,184],"class_list":["post-199541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-banca-centrala","tag-bce","tag-inflatie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=199541"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/199541\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=199541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=199541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=199541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}