\n\u201eS\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta vom dep\u0103\u015fi toate pragurile asumate de guvern (\u015fi furnizate de INSP?) pentru cel mai pesimist scenariu \u00een valul 4-Delta\u201d, scrie epidemiologul Octavian Jurma pe Facebook.<\/p>\n
\nS\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia a dep\u0103\u015fit v\u00e2rful de 1.500 de cazuri noi pe zi, iar s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta \u00eel va dep\u0103\u015fi \u015fi pe cel de 2.000 de cazuri noi pe zi, spune Jurma.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eMai grav, s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta vom dep\u0103\u015fi maximul prognozat de 4.000 de intern\u0103ri \u00een spitale. Mult mai grav, am dep\u0103\u015fit deja pragul de 400 de intern\u0103ri \u00een terapie intensiv\u0103 \u015fi \u00eel vom dep\u0103\u015fi \u015fi pe cel de 500 de intern\u0103ri al ATI\u201d, adaug\u0103 acesta.<\/p>\n
\nEpidemiologul folose\u015fte un tabel de predic\u0163ie conform c\u0103ruia evolu\u0163ia valului 4 se apropie tot mai mult de scenariul s\u0103u cel mai pesimist: un v\u00e2rf \u00een jurul a 8.500 de cazuri pe zi la mijlocul lunii octombrie.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eEste foarte probabil c\u0103 \u00een luna octombrie se vor lua m\u0103suri de limitare \u015fi m\u0103 a\u015ftept [sper] ca valorile din a doua jum\u0103tate a lunii octombrie s\u0103 nu fie atinse sau s\u0103 reprezinte v\u00e2rful valului 4\u201d, transmite Octavian Jurma.<\/p>\n
\nAcesta precizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 tabelul este un instrument simplu \u015fi imprecis, dar rapid \u015fi util de lucru pentru oricine are nevoie s\u0103 estimeze rapid pe teren evolu\u0163ia \u00eentr-un trend: \u201ee ca \u015fi cum ai folosi un ceas solar ca s\u0103 te orientezi \u00een absen\u0163a unui ceas artizanal. Ultimul e mai precis, dar, dac\u0103 a fost reglat gre\u015fit, poate produce erori mai mari dec\u00e2t ceasul solar\u201d.<\/p>\n
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
S\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na aceasta vom dep\u0103\u015fi maximul prognozat de 4.000 de intern\u0103ri \u00een spitale din cauza valului 4, sus\u0163ine epidemiologul Octavian Jurma: \u201eEvolu\u0163ia se apropie de scenariul meu cel mai pesimist – un v\u00e2rf de 8.500 cazuri pe zi\u201d. El estimeaz\u0103 noi m\u0103suri de limitare \u00een octombrie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[49620,48962],"class_list":["post-197011","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-octavian-jurma","tag-val-4"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197011","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=197011"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/197011\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=197011"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=197011"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=197011"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}