\nBNR a decis la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul s\u0103pt\u0103\u00adm\u00e2\u00adnii trecute s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 do\u00adb\u00e2nda-cheie la minimul is\u00adto\u00adric de 1,25%, \u00een\u00adcuraj\u00e2nd ast\u00adfel fi\u00adnan\u00ad\u0163area \u00een continuare a eco\u00adnomiei la cos\u00adturi sc\u0103\u00adzute, \u00eens\u0103 aten\u00ad\u0163io\u00adnea\u00adz\u0103 c\u0103 ur\u00admea\u00adz\u0103 \u201eo traiec\u00adtorie mai \u00eenalt\u0103\u201c a infla\u0163iei anuale.<\/p>\n
\n\u201eActualul scenariu evi\u00adden\u0163iaz\u0103 o traiectorie mai \u00eenalt\u0103 a ratei anuale prog\u00adno\u00adza\u00adte a infla\u0163iei pe par\u00adcur\u00adsul ur\u00adm\u0103\u00adtorilor doi ani, \u00een con\u00addi\u0163iile \u00een care aceasta a fost din nou revizuit\u0103 con\u00adsiderabil \u00een sens ascen\u00addent pe termen scurt \u015fi \u00eentr-o mai mic\u0103 m\u0103\u00adsu\u00adr\u0103 pe cel de-al doilea segment al orizon\u00adtului proiec\u0163iei\u201c, a transmis vineri BNR.<\/p>\n
\n\u00cen iunie, infla\u0163ia anual\u0103 a continuat s\u0103 creasc\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la 3,94%, deasupra limitei su\u00adpe\u00adrioare a intervalului \u0163intei \u015fi peste nivelul prognozat, dup\u0103 ce \u00een martie era de 3,05%.<\/p>\n
\nBNR majorase \u00een luna mai prognoza infla\u0163iei anuale din 2021 de la 3,4%, la 4,1%, un nivel dublu fa\u0163\u0103 de cel din 2020, pentru ca acum s\u0103 urmeze o prognoz\u0103 \u201erevizu\u00adit\u0103 conside\u00adra\u00adbil \u00een sens ascendent pe termen scurt\u201c, adic\u0103 o in\u00adfla\u0163ie mai mare de 4,1% \u00een 2021.<\/p>\n
\nNu doar infla\u0163ia, ci \u015fi cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 este peste a\u015ftept\u0103ri. BNR re\u00admarc\u0103 faptul c\u0103 noile date statistice confirm\u0103 con\u00adtinua\u00adrea redres\u0103rii activit\u0103\u0163ii econo\u00admice \u00een primul trimestru (T1) din 2021 \u201e\u00eentr-un ritm consi\u00adderabil peste a\u015ftept\u0103ri\u201c, fiind recuperat\u0103 aproape \u00een totalitate contrac\u0163ia economic\u0103 sever\u0103 din T2\/2020 \u015fi revenind devia\u0163ia pozitiv\u0103 a PIB \u00een T1\/ 2021, \u00een devans cu dou\u0103 trimestre fa\u0163\u0103 de previziunile anterioare.<\/p>\n
\nCre\u015fterea pre\u0163urilor, a infla\u0163iei, a pus ca\u00adp\u0103t relax\u0103rii mai consistente a politicii mo\u00adne\u00adtare. \u00cen schimb, \u00een contextul cre\u015fterii in\u00adfla\u00ad\u0163iei la nivel interna\u0163ional, unele b\u0103nci cen\u00adtrale chiar au \u00eenceput s\u0103 \u00een\u0103spreasc\u0103 po\u00adlitica monetar\u0103 \u015fi s\u0103 treac\u0103 la major\u0103ri de do\u00adb\u00e2nzi. Unii anali\u015fti de pe pia\u0163a local\u0103 se a\u015fteapt\u0103 la major\u0103ri de dob\u00e2nzi \u00een Rom\u00e2nia cel mai probabil la \u00eenceputul anului 2022, dar r\u0103m\u00e2\u00adne de v\u0103zut ce se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla cu evolu\u0163ia infla\u0163iei.<\/p>\n
\nUnul dintre riscurile privind infla\u0163ia este politica fiscal\u0103. Astfel, consolidarea fisca\u00adl\u0103\/bu\u00adge\u00adtar\u0103 este vital\u0103 pentru stabilitatea eco\u00adnomic\u0103, pentru atenuarea impactului \u015fo\u00adcu\u00adrilor infla\u0163ioniste, aten\u0163ioneaz\u0103 BNR.<\/p>\n
\nMen\u0163inerea dob\u00e2nzii-cheie la 1,25% fa\u00adci\u00adliteaz\u0103 continuarea credit\u0103rii la dob\u00e2nzi mai sc\u0103zute. BNR eviden\u0163iaz\u0103 trendul des\u00adcen\u00addent al dob\u00e2nzii la creditele noi \u015fi avansul credit\u0103rii cu 11,2% \u00een iunie. Pe de alt\u0103 parte, men\u0163inerea dob\u00e2nzilor la minime record nu-i avantajeaz\u0103 pe cei cu depozite bancare.<\/p>\n
\nSc\u0103derea dob\u00e2nzilor pe pia\u0163a interbancar\u0103 \u00een contextul pandemiei de COVID-19 s-au reflectat asupra dob\u00e2nzilor la depozitele persoane fizice, care au cobor\u00e2t sub 2%. Astfel, dob\u00e2nzile sunt real negative, iar rom\u00e2nii pierd din puterea de cump\u0103rare a economiilor de la b\u0103nci recompensate la dob\u00e2nzi mai mici dec\u00e2t infla\u0163ia.<\/p>\n
\nCea mai recent\u0103 decizie a boardului BNR privind dob\u00e2nda a fost luat\u0103 \u00een ianuarie 2021, c\u00e2nd dob\u00e2nda-cheie a fost redus\u0103 surpinz\u0103tor la 1,25%, aceasta fiind cea de-a patra reducere de dob\u00e2nd\u0103 de dup\u0103 declan\u015farea pandemiei COVID-19. Practic, de la debutul pandemiei de coronavirus banca central\u0103 a \u00eenjum\u0103t\u0103\u0163it dob\u00e2nda-cheie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
BNR a decis la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul s\u0103pt\u0103\u00adm\u00e2\u00adnii trecute s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 do\u00adb\u00e2nda-cheie la minimul is\u00adto\u00adric de 1,25%, \u00een\u00adcuraj\u00e2nd ast\u00adfel fi\u00adnan\u00ad\u0163area \u00een continuare a eco\u00adnomiei la cos\u00adturi sc\u0103\u00adzute, \u00eens\u0103 aten\u00ad\u0163io\u00adnea\u00adz\u0103 c\u0103 ur\u00admea\u00adz\u0103 \u201eo traiec\u00adtorie mai \u00eenalt\u0103\u201c a infla\u0163iei anuale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[185,49442,7458,9805,184,49441,49444,49443],"class_list":["post-196263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bnr","tag-consolidarea-fiscala-bugetara","tag-dobanda","tag-dobanda-cheie","tag-inflatie","tag-redresarea-economiei","tag-socuri-inflationiste","tag-stabilitatea-economica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=196263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/196263\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=196263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=196263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=196263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}