{"id":189378,"date":"2020-12-29T16:33:15","date_gmt":"2020-12-29T16:33:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=189378"},"modified":"2020-12-29T16:33:15","modified_gmt":"2020-12-29T16:33:15","slug":"raport-bnr-de-ce-bulgaria-si-croatia-au-fost-admise-in-anticamera-zonei-euro-si-romania-nu-raspunsul-este-oferit-de-indicatori-cheie-balante-externe-si-bugete-publice-pe-un-sir-relevant-de-ani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=189378","title":{"rendered":"Raport BNR: De ce Bulgaria \u015fi Croa\u0163ia au fost admise \u00een anticamera zonei euro \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia nu? Raspunsul este oferit de indicatori cheie: balan\u0163e externe \u015fi bugete publice pe un \u015fir relevant de ani"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nBanca Central\u0103 European\u0103 (BCE) a anun\u0163at pe 7 iulie c\u0103 Bulgaria \u015fi Croa\u0163ia (leva \u015fi, respectiv, kuna) au fost admise in Mecanismul Cursurilor de Schimb2 (ERM2), care este anticamera ader\u0103rii la zona euro. Rom\u00e2nia nu a primit aceast\u0103 invita\u0163ie. R\u0103spunsul la \u00eentrebarea \u201dde ce\u201d \u0163ine de anumi\u0163i indicatori cheie:&nbsp;balan\u0163e externe \u015fi bugete publice pe un \u015fir relevant de ani.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div>\n<span style=\"text-align: justify;\">In MCS2 se st\u0103 cel putin doi ani \u015fi \u00een cazul Bulgariei aranjamentul de \u201cconsiliu monetar\u201d (currency board) poate fi men\u0163inut pe perioada acestui stagiu p\u00e2n\u0103 la aderare efectiv\u0103. Bulgaria a facut cererea de intrare \u00een MCS2 \u00een 2018, iar Croatia \u00een 2019.<\/span><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nPotrivit unei analizei BNR, din 2013 Bulgaria a avut surplusuri de cont curent m\u0103rimea fiind de 4% din PIB \u00een 2019 (de la deficite de dou\u0103 cifre \u00eenainte de 2009).&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u00cen acela\u015fi timp, Croa\u0163ia a mers pe aceea\u015fi linie \u00eencepand cu 2014 av\u00e2nd surplus de cca. 3% \u00een 2019 (de la deficite de doua cifre \u00eenainte de 2009).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nPrivind bugetul public, acesta a fost \u00een Bulgaria cu surplus de cca. 2% din PIB \u00een 2019, \u00een timp ce \u00een Croa\u0163ia a fost \u00een echilibru anul trecut.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nComparativ, \u00een 2019, deficitul bugetului public \u00een Rom\u00e2nia a fost de 4,3% din PIB (standarde ESA), iar deficitul de cont curent de cca 4,6% din PIB (drept \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 mult sub deficitele de dou\u0103 cifre din 2007-2008, c\u00e2nd economiile din Est fuseser\u0103 prinse&nbsp;\u00een vria credit\u0103rii cu intrari mari de capital extern).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u00cen acest context, raportul BNR noteaz\u0103 c\u0103 toate economiile nou intrate in UE \u00eencepand cu 2004 \u015fi care nu fac parte din zona euro au cifre mai bune dec\u00e2t Rom\u00e2nia la indicatorii mentiona\u0163i.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nTotu\u015fi, Rom\u00e2nia st\u0103 bine la datoria public\u0103 (cca. 35% \u00een 2019, fa\u0163\u0103 de 20% \u00een Bulgaria \u015fi peste 75% din PIB \u00een Croa\u0163ia).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nRaportul de fundamentare \u015fi planul de ac\u0163iune pentru aderarea la euro care \u00eel \u00eensote\u015fte fac recomand\u0103ri privind nevoia de a reduce deficitele pentru a avea \u015fanse de intrare in MCS2 \u015fi de aderare. Planul ar fi trebuit s\u0103 \u00eenceap\u0103 s\u0103 fie pus \u00een aplicare din 2019. Din p\u0103cate, spune rarpotul BNR, cele dou\u0103 documente au ramas mai mult un exerci\u0163iu de diploma\u0163ie public\u0103; c\u00e2\u015ftig de cauz\u0103 au avut \u00een schimb ini\u0163iative cu implica\u0163ii nefaste asupra bugetului public \u015fi altor criterii de convergen\u0163\u0103 cu zona euro.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n\u00cen schimb, \u00een Bulgaria \u015fi Croatia, un consens politic a fost acompaniat de programe concrete, un dialog permanent cu BCE \u015fi CE privind pa\u015fii de urmat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nDialogul Romaniei cu BCE \u015fi CE \u00een privin\u0163a MCS2 putea s\u0103 aib\u0103 loc dac\u0103 un program de corec\u0163ie macroeconomic\u0103 ar fi fost \u00een derulare. Dar politici macro prociclice \u015fi deficite externe tot mai mari \u00een anii recen\u0163i (\u00een pofida unor venituri crescute din servicii \u015fi remiteri considerabile din str\u0103in\u0103tate) au singularizat pozi\u0163ia Rom\u00e2niei \u00een regiune \u00een sens negativ \u015fi au redus \u015fansele unui dialog fructuos.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nAt\u00e2t timp cat nu vom pune ordine \u00een finan\u0163ele publice, nu vom g\u0103si mjloace s\u0103 avem deficite externe mai mici, un dialog concret cu BCE \u015fi CE este dificil.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nRom\u00e2nia nu mai respect\u0103 niciun criteriu de convergen\u0163\u0103 nominal\u0103 (cum au subliniat analize ale CE \u015fi BCE in iunie a.c.), este singurul stat din UE supus procedurii de deficit excesiv (EDP), presiuni pe bugetul public sunt \u00een continuare foarte mari. \u015ei sunt masuri \u00een alte domenii (de convergen\u0163\u0103 juridic\u0103, func\u0163ionare a sectorului public, etc) de realizat, se mai arat\u0103 \u00een raportul BNR.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\nAnaliza a fost redactat\u0103 de&nbsp;<span style=\"font-family: Calibri, Calib, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14.2441px; font-style: italic; text-align: justify;\">Daniel D\u0103ianu (coordonator), Amalia Fugatu, Anca G\u0103l\u0103\u0163escu, Gabriela Mihailovici, Bogdan Moinescu, Ioana Muntean, Florian Neagu, Iulian Panait, Mirela Roman&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103 (BCE) a anun\u0163at pe 7 iulie c\u0103 Bulgaria \u015fi Croa\u0163ia (leva \u015fi, respectiv, kuna) au fost admise in Mecanismul Cursurilor de Schimb2 (ERM2), care este anticamera ader\u0103rii la zona euro. Rom\u00e2nia nu a primit aceast\u0103 invita\u0163ie. R\u0103spunsul la \u00eentrebarea \u201dde ce\u201d \u0163ine de anumi\u0163i indicatori cheie: balan\u0163e externe \u015fi bugete publice pe un \u015fir relevant de ani. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[8830,74,5879,7594,411],"class_list":["post-189378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bce","tag-buget","tag-bulgaria","tag-croatia","tag-deficit"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=189378"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/189378\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=189378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=189378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=189378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}