{"id":185562,"date":"2020-08-17T20:14:31","date_gmt":"2020-08-17T20:14:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=185562"},"modified":"2026-04-07T20:31:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T20:31:39","slug":"datele-estimate-de-comisia-nationala-de-prognoza-raman-optimiste-o-cadere-de-doar-38-a-economiei-in-2020-cel-putin-minus-5-spun-institutiile-independente","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=185562","title":{"rendered":"Datele estimate de Comisia Na\u0163ional\u0103 de Prognoz\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n optimiste: o c\u0103dere de doar 3,8% a economiei \u00een 2020. Cel pu\u0163in minus 5%, spun institu\u0163iile independente"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\u2666 Minus 5,5% este estimarea de restr\u00e2ngere a PIB \u00een 2020, potrivit unei analize a ING Bank. Minus 5% crede Raiffeisen Bank \u015fi minus 4,7% BCR<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\n\u00cens\u0103 lucrurile puteau fi \u015fi mai rele, estimeaz\u0103 economi\u015ftii. Nici nu se putea altfel. Economia a fost \u00eenchis\u0103, voluntar, vreme de dou\u0103 luni. Industria a sc\u0103zut, \u00een primul semestru din an, cu 16,4%, dar Comisia Na\u0163ional\u0103 de Prognoz\u0103 crede c\u0103 aceast\u0103 sc\u0103dere se va restr\u00e2nge, pe \u00eentregul an, la 8,6%. Agricultura, estimeaz\u0103 aceea\u015fi surs\u0103, va sc\u0103dea cu 7,1%.<\/p>\n

\n\u201ePrea optimist\u201c, crede Ionu\u0163 Dumitru, economistul-\u015fef al Raiffeisen Bank. Construc\u0163iile, care au crescut cu 19% \u00een primul semestru, ar urma s\u0103 avanseze cu 5,8%, pe \u00eentreg anul. \u201eSunt mul\u0163i bani de sp\u0103lat acolo\u201c, spune, cu seriozitate, economistul Drago\u015f Cabat, dar adaug\u0103: \u201ee bine c\u0103 cresc\u201c.<\/p>\n

\nerviciile ar urma s\u0103 scad\u0103, pe ansamblu, cu doar 2,7%, dar, la primul semestru, serviciile prestate popula\u0163iei au sc\u0103zut cu 38%. Se \u00eentoarce epoca abunden\u0163ei? Greu de crezut, de vreme ce economi\u015ftii nu v\u0103d o re\u00eentoarcere la nivelul lui 2019 dec\u00e2t \u00een 2022. \u201eRecuperarea nu va fi total\u0103 dec\u00e2t \u00een 2020\u201c, arat\u0103 o analiz\u0103 a BCR.<\/p>\n

\n\u00cen semestrul \u00eent\u00e2i, sc\u0103derea economic\u0103 a fost de 4,7%, dar veniturile consolidate ale statului au sc\u0103zut cu 1,6%. Oricum, deficitul bugetar va cre\u015fte cumplit, spre 9% din PIB, la v\u00e2rful atins \u00een criza precedent\u0103.<\/p>\n

\nDeficitul fiscal va fi cea mai mare provocare a anilor ce vin, spune Ionu\u0163 Dumitru. Dar mereu au fost g\u0103site solu\u0163ii: infla\u0163ia va fi cea care va netezi brazda. Cu o cre\u015ftere economic\u0103 de 3-4% \u015fi un deflator de 5, toat\u0103 povestea cu cre\u015fterea pensiilor va fi o amintire, \u00een c\u00e2\u0163iva ani. \u00cens\u0103, pentru acum, plusul este c\u0103 datele la semestrul \u00eent\u00e2i sunt mai bune dec\u00e2t se anticipa. Iar minusul este c\u0103 recuperarea nu va fi at\u00e2t de rapid\u0103 pe c\u00e2t se credea.<\/p>\n

\n\u00cen semestrul \u00eent\u00e2i, sc\u0103derea economic\u0103 a fost de 4,7%, dar veniturile consolidate ale statului au sc\u0103zut cu 1,6%. Oricum, deficitul bugetar va cre\u015fte cumplit, spre 9% din PIB, la v\u00e2rful atins \u00een criza precedent\u0103.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cens\u0103 lucrurile puteau fi \u015fi mai rele, estimeaz\u0103 economi\u015ftii. Nici nu se putea altfel. Economia a fost \u00eenchis\u0103, voluntar, vreme de dou\u0103 luni. Industria a sc\u0103zut, \u00een primul semestru din an, cu 16,4%, dar Comisia Na\u0163ional\u0103 de Prognoz\u0103 crede c\u0103 aceast\u0103 sc\u0103dere se va restr\u00e2nge, pe \u00eentregul an, la 8,6%. Agricultura, estimeaz\u0103 aceea\u015fi surs\u0103, va sc\u0103dea cu 7,1%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[10846,188,8887,32228,8350],"class_list":["post-185562","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-comisie","tag-economie","tag-estimare","tag-optimist","tag-prognoza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185562","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=185562"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185562\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":185582,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/185562\/revisions\/185582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=185562"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=185562"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=185562"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}