\nIar anali\u015ftii se vor \u00eentrece fie \u00een a anun\u0163a catastrofe, fie \u00een a se dovedi pruden\u0163i, adic\u0103 fals \u00een\u0163elep\u0163i.<\/p>\n
\nS\u0103 \u00eencepem cu \u00eenceputul, adic\u0103 cu Wall Street. Bursa american\u0103 a traversat o perioad\u0103 de cre\u015ftere major\u0103, stabilind record dup\u0103 record: noiembrie 2016 \u2013 dep\u0103\u015fe\u015fte pentru prima dat\u0103 19.000 e puncte, ianuarie 2017 peste 20.000 de puncte, august 2017 \u2013 peste 22.000 de puncte, 4 ianuarie 2018 \u2013 peste 25.000 de puncte, 16 ianuarie 2018 \u2013 peste 26.000 de puncte.<\/p>\n
\nIndiferent c\u00e2t de \u00eencurajatoare ar fi fost rezultatele politicilor economice ale pre\u015fedintelui Trump, o cre\u015ftere de 40 de procente \u00eenseamn\u0103 o decolare, nu o evolu\u0163ie, \u00eenseamn\u0103 o \u00eenc\u0103lzire pe undeva nejustificat\u0103. S\u0103 ad\u0103ugam euforia care s-a me\u0163inut \u00een zona tehnologiei de o bun\u0103 bucat\u0103 de vreme \u2013 vezi nenum\u0103ra\u0163ii inorogi, companii cu o valoare de pia\u0163\u0103 de peste un miliard de dolari, cu cre\u015fteri accentuate ale cota\u0163iilor bursiere, de\u015fi rezultatele economice ale celor mai multe ar fi \u00eendemnat mai degrab\u0103 la pruden\u0163\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nO parantez\u0103: chiar \u00een timp ce scrian acest text, o analiz\u0103 pe care o primesc pe mail anun\u0163\u0103 c\u0103 “nu exist\u0103 variante ieftine de a te proteja, odat\u0103 ce bestia volatilit\u0103\u0163ii a fost pus\u0103 \u00een libertate”. Ce spuneam mai sus?<\/p>\n
\nSunt deja voci chiar pe pia\u0163a american\u0103 care pun c\u0103derea de acum pe seama ac\u0163iunilor delibrate ale Rezervei Federale, mai fericit\u0103 s\u0103 vad\u0103 o pia\u0163\u0103 bursier\u0103 ceva mai calm\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nS\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 spre final raportul privind cre\u015ftererile de salarii din Statele Unite a antrenat o majorare a dob\u00e2nzilor, inclusiv din partea Fed, pentru obliga\u0163iunile americane. Acestea au devenit investi\u0163ii mai atr\u0103g\u0103toare pentru juc\u0103tori, de unde pierderea interesului pentru ac\u0163iuni, de unde v\u00e2nz\u0103rile, de unde sc\u0103derile bursiere. Probabil c\u0103 Rezerva Federal\u0103 \u00ee\u015fi va clarifica pozi\u0163ia la reuniunea ce va avea loc \u00een a doua jum\u0103tate a acestei s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, urmat\u0103 de o nou\u0103 majorare a dob\u00e2nzii de referin\u0163\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nPie\u0163ele bursiere sufer\u0103 de o sensibilitate aparte, iar viteza panicii este viteza cu care circul\u0103 informa\u0163ia: cine este fericit, \u00een fond, s\u0103 vad\u0103 c\u0103 pierde bani, chiar dac\u0103 a mizat necump\u0103tat? Nimeni. Cine vrea s\u0103 se pun\u0103 la ad\u0103post c\u0103nd aude ve\u015fti rele? Toat\u0103 lumea.<\/p>\n
\nCel mai probabil nu aceasta este CRIZA, este doar du\u015ful rece de care lumea avea nevoie, un soi de corec\u0163ie a euforiei. S\u0103 privim cu aten\u0163ie, totu\u015fi, pre\u0163urile de la bursele de m\u0103rfuri \u015fi indicatorii economici de baz\u0103.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Dac\u0103 lucrurile vor merge toat\u0103 ziua a\u015fa pentru pie\u0163ele de capital europene, dup\u0103 dou\u0103 \u015fedin\u0163e destul de dureroase pentru Wall Street \u015fi o c\u0103dere cu v\u00e2n\u0103t\u0103i \u00een Asia, probabil o s\u0103 vede\u0163i titluri de genul “la burse a curs s\u00e2nge” sau “vine o nou\u0103 criz\u0103”.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[529],"tags":[10888,16199,5826,368,8482,466,246,182,471,274,9287,60,16892,8674,80,19047,14126,9719,10839],"class_list":["post-157483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinii","tag-americana","tag-anunt","tag-asia","tag-burse","tag-cadere","tag-capital","tag-crestere","tag-criza","tag-europene","tag-incepere","tag-majorare","tag-piata","tag-puncte","tag-record","tag-refuz","tag-sange","tag-sedinte","tag-titluri","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=157483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/157483\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=157483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=157483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=157483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}