{"id":140975,"date":"2016-12-17T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-12-17T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=140975"},"modified":"2016-12-17T10:00:00","modified_gmt":"2016-12-17T10:00:00","slug":"care-este-asemanarea-intre-experti-si-cimpanzei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=140975","title":{"rendered":"Care este asem\u0103narea \u00eentre exper\u0163i \u015fi cimpanzei"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\u00centre anii 1984 \u015fi 2004, un profesor universitar a studiat predic\u0163iile emise timp de dou\u0103 decenii \u015fi a ajuns la concluzia c\u0103 exper\u0163ii sunt la fel de preci\u015fi \u00een a prezice viitorul pe c\u00e2t sunt cimpanzeii atunci c\u00e2nd arunc\u0103 s\u0103ge\u0163i la \u0163int\u0103. Mai t\u00e2rziu, profesorul \u00een cauz\u0103, Philip Tetlock, de la Wharton School of Business, \u015fi-a prezentat descoperirile \u00eentr-o carte pe care a scris-o \u00eempreun\u0103 cu Dan Gardner, un jurnalist canadian interesat de politic\u0103 \u015fi psihologie, carte ap\u0103rut\u0103 \u00een englez\u0103 anul trecut \u015fi tradus\u0103 \u00een rom\u00e2ne\u015fte \u00een 2016. Cartea \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 identifice cine are abilitatea de a prezice \u00een mod corect viitorul, baz\u00e2ndu-se pe experimente \u015fi studii \u015fi ajunge la concluzia, nu prea surprinz\u0103toare, c\u0103 performan\u0163a \u00een acest domeniu nu \u0163ine de IQ, de \u015fcolile terminate sau de informa\u0163iile la care au acces oamenii, ci mai degrab\u0103 de un anume mod de organizare, de un anume mod de g\u00e2ndire, de capacitatea de a lucra \u00een echip\u0103, dar \u015fi de modul \u00een care e\u015fti dispus s\u0103 \u00ee\u0163i asumi gre\u015felile. De aici \u015fi o cantitate eclectic\u0103 de \u201esuperprezic\u0103tori\u201d, in\u015fi care nu au nimic \u00een comun cu accesul la informa\u0163ii de top sau secrete politice \u015fi economice, ci doar o inteligen\u0163\u0103 \u00een mi\u015fcare \u015fi o anume atitudine mental\u0103. Vorbim aici, iar\u0103\u015fi, nu de absolven\u0163i de universit\u0103\u0163i de top, ci de \u015fomeri sau gospodine sau profesori de liceu. O enumerare care introduce \u00een ecua\u0163ie un element care, paradoxal, nu pare a avea leg\u0103tura cu predic\u0163iile, este vorba de umilin\u0163\u0103, de puterea de a-\u0163i cunoa\u015fte locul \u00een lume \u015fi de limpezimea cu care po\u0163i privi lumea de la locul t\u0103u. Mai mult, autorii spun c\u0103 \u015ftiin\u0163a predic\u0163iilor poate fi \u00eenv\u0103\u0163at\u0103, din propriile gre\u015feli, dar \u015fi din determinare, autocontrol \u015fi modestie.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nS\u0103 nu uit: personajele c\u0103r\u0163ii lui Tetlock \u015fi Gardner sunt c\u00e2t se poate de interesante. De exemplu, Robert Rubin, definit drept cuget\u0103tor probabilistic, a fost la Goldman Sachs, dar \u015fi consilier al lui Bill Clinton pe vremea c\u00e2nd acesta era pre\u015fedintele SUA sau secretar de stat al Trezoreriei. Sau Bill Flack, super-prognostician cu un num\u0103r impresionant de prognoze despre lumea real\u0103 adeverite, peste to\u0163i \u201eTom Friedmanii din lume\u201d. Exist\u0103, spune Flack, exper\u0163i buni \u015fi exper\u0163i r\u0103i. Cei r\u0103i \u00ee\u015fi concept predic\u0163iile f\u0103r\u0103 argumente care s\u0103 le sus\u0163in\u0103, a\u015ftept\u00e2ndu-se de la cititorii lor s\u0103 le trateze ideile ca pe cele 10 porunci, sau \u00ee\u015fi bazeaz\u0103 ideile pe anecdote \u015fi nu pe date concrete. \u015ei adaug\u0103 expertul: \u201eCei buni \u00ee\u015fi dezbat prognozele; de fapt pe ace\u015ftia \u00eei v\u0103d ca pe ni\u015fte avoca\u0163i \u00eentr-un sistem judiciar cu dezbatere \u00een contradictoriu: ei \u00eenainteaz\u0103 cele mai bune argumente posibile ca s\u0103 dovedeasc\u0103 de ce evenimentul X va avea loc, iar eu analizez argumentele tuturor, aprofundez problema, colateral, at\u00e2t c\u00e2t trebuie, \u015fi vin cu o prognoz\u0103 proprie, ca o \u00eensumare ponderat\u0103 a prognozelor lor\u201d.
\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00centre anii 1984 \u015fi 2004, un profesor universitar a studiat predic\u0163iile emise timp de dou\u0103 decenii \u015fi a ajuns la concluzia c\u0103 exper\u0163ii sunt la fel de preci\u015fi \u00een a prezice viitorul pe c\u00e2t sunt cimpanzeii atunci c\u00e2nd arunc\u0103 s\u0103ge\u0163i la \u0163int\u0103. Mai t\u00e2rziu, profesorul \u00een cauz\u0103, Philip Tetlock, de la Wharton School of Business, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7194],"tags":[26676,31859,16350,20497,42426,80,16708,464],"class_list":["post-140975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-carte","tag-argumente","tag-aruncare","tag-experti","tag-predictii","tag-prezicere","tag-refuz","tag-tinta","tag-viitor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=140975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/140975\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=140975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=140975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=140975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}