{"id":133059,"date":"2016-05-01T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-05-01T10:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=133059"},"modified":"2016-05-01T10:00:00","modified_gmt":"2016-05-01T10:00:00","slug":"noul-butoi-cu-pulbere-al-lumii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=133059","title":{"rendered":"Noul butoi cu pulbere al lumii"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nTeoria lui Kaplan este simpl\u0103: a\u015fa cum Balcanii erau v\u0103zu\u0163i, la \u00eenceputul secolului XX, ca butoiul de pulbere al Europei (iar Europa era lumea atunci!), pentru c\u0103 erau zona strategic\u0103 \u00een care se confruntau marile puteri politice ale lumii, dar \u015fi marile religii, \u015fi prin care treceau marile rute comerciale ale vremii, tot a\u015fa Marea Chinei de Sud este acum o surs\u0103 de conflict.<\/p>\n

\nO surs\u0103 de conflict cu mari rezerve energetice, cu dispute teritoriale, cu rute investi\u0163ionale \u00een valoare de mii de miliarde de dolari \u015fi cu rute de m\u0103rfuri \u00een valoare de alte mii de miliarde, marea \u00een cauz\u0103 adun\u0103 ambi\u0163iile unor zone \u015fi ale unor state care \u00eencep acum s\u0103 \u00ee\u015fi joace c\u0103r\u0163ile la masa geopoliticlui mondial: nu at\u00e2t China, deja consfin\u0163it\u0103 drept mare putere, c\u00e2t Vietnam, Malaiezia, Singapore sau Filipine. Kaplan a scris p\u00e2n\u0103 acum 16 c\u0103r\u0163i de politic\u0103 extern\u0103 \u015fi c\u0103l\u0103torii \u015fi a fost desemnat de Foreign Policy, \u00een 2011, printre \u201eprimii 100 de g\u00e2nditori ai lumii\u201c; este editor al publica\u0163iei The Atlantic \u015fi a fost analist politic al Stratfor, agen\u0163ia de informa\u0163ii \u00eenfiin\u0163at\u0103 de George Friedman.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\n\u201eButoiul de pulbere al Asiei\u201c nu este un simplu volum de politic\u0103 interna\u0163ional\u0103, ci o lec\u0163ie de analiz\u0103 geopolitic\u0103: f\u0103r\u0103 partizanate, f\u0103r\u0103 abord\u0103ri de genul \u201easta nu se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla niciodat\u0103\u201c, bazat\u0103 pe cunoa\u015ftere \u015fi realism. Nimic nu ilustreaz\u0103 mai bine dorin\u0163a vietnamezilor de a juca un rol major \u00een zon\u0103 dec\u00e2t achizi\u0163ionarea a \u015fase submarine de ultim\u0103 genera\u0163ie, din clasa aKilo, de la ru\u015fi.<\/p>\n

\nUn expert occidental \u00een ap\u0103rare mi-a spus c\u0103 trasnzac\u0163ia nu are sens. \u00abVietnamezii or s\u0103 aib\u0103 \u015focul vie\u0163ii lor atunci c\u00e2nd or s\u0103 descopere c\u00e2t cost\u0103 submarinele astea numai ca s\u0103 le men\u0163ii \u00een stare de func\u0163ionare\u00bb. Mai mult dec\u00e2t at\u00e2t, vietnamezii vor fi nevoi\u0163i s\u0103 antreneze tot at\u00e2tea echipaje pentru ele, ceea ce va dura o genera\u0163ie\u201c \u201eCa s\u0103 contracareze submarinele chineze\u015fti, ar fi sc\u0103pat mai ieftin dac\u0103 se concentrau pe r\u0103zboiul antisubmarin \u015fi pe ap\u0103rarea de coast\u0103. Evident, vietnamezii au cump\u0103rat submarinele ca pe ni\u015fte m\u0103rci ale prestigiului, ca s\u0103 demonstreze c\u0103 \u00abvorbim serios\u00bb\u201c un scurt citat despre ceea ce va s\u0103 zic\u0103 geopolitica actual\u0103 \u015fi despre ce poate deveni \u00eentinderea de ap\u0103 dintre Vietman, Filipine, China \u015fi Malaiezia. De citit musai.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Butoiul cu pulbere al Asiei\u201c de Robert D Kaplan se leag\u0103 direct de \u201eMegatendin\u0163ele\u201c lui Mathew Burrows, pentru c\u0103 ambele volume vorbesc despre viitor, a\u015fa cum \u00eel traseaz\u0103 prezentul.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7194],"tags":[384,7878,6545,544,21509,22153,274,161,220,80,31917,465,464],"class_list":["post-133059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-carte","tag-aparare","tag-carti","tag-china","tag-conflict","tag-filipine","tag-generatie","tag-incepere","tag-miliarde","tag-politica","tag-refuz","tag-rol","tag-valoare","tag-viitor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=133059"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/133059\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=133059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=133059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=133059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}