{"id":116800,"date":"2015-01-20T21:33:00","date_gmt":"2015-01-20T21:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=116800"},"modified":"2015-01-20T21:33:00","modified_gmt":"2015-01-20T21:33:00","slug":"analisti-masurile-de-stimulare-ale-bce-benefice-mai-mult-europei-de-est-decat-elvetiei","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=116800","title":{"rendered":"Anali\u015fti: M\u0103surile de stimulare ale BCE, benefice mai mult Europei de Est dec\u00e2t Elve\u0163iei"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\n<strong>&#8220;Achizi\u0163iile de obliga\u0163iuni ale BCE vor avea \u00een mod clar un efect pozitiv. Relaxarea monetar\u0103 poate avea un impact pozitiv asupra economiilor care au leg\u0103tur\u0103 cu regiunea unde este aplicat\u0103 o astfel de politic\u0103&#8221;<\/strong>, a declarat Piroska Nagy, economist la Banca European\u0103 pentru Reconstruc\u0163ie \u015fi Dezvoltare (BERD), relateaz\u0103 <a href=\"http:\/\/bloomberg.com\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\nMajoritatea statelor est-europene nu folosesc euro, dar vor avea de c\u00e2\u015ftigat \u00eentruc\u00e2t m\u0103surile BCE \u00eencurajeaz\u0103 creditarea transfrontalier\u0103 \u015fi stimuleaz\u0103 cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 \u00een uniunea monetar\u0103, principalul lor partener comercial.<\/p>\n<p>\n<strong>B\u0103ncile centrale din Europa de Est sunt deja ocupate s\u0103 fac\u0103 fa\u0163\u0103 efectului retragerii m\u0103surilor de stimulare de c\u0103tre Rezerva Federal\u0103 american\u0103 \u015fi cu decizia \u015foc a B\u0103ncii Na\u0163ionale a Elve\u0163iei de a elimina plafonul valutar de 1,2 franci\/euro, care a m\u0103rit costul creditelor \u00een franci.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\nMonedele Poloniei \u015fi Ungariei s-au depreciat puternic s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103, cele dou\u0103 \u0163\u0103ri av\u00e2nd cea mai mare pondere a creditelor pentru locuin\u0163e \u00een franci elve\u0163ieni. Zlotul \u015fi forintul s-au depreciat de la \u00eenceputul acestui an cu 1,1%, respectiv 0,7%.<\/p>\n<p>\nEuropa de Est a suportat deocamdat\u0103 impactul \u00eencetinirii economice din zona euro, dar pr\u0103bu\u015firea cota\u0163iilor petrolului a amplificat presiunile de sc\u0103dere a pre\u0163urilor. \u00cen prezent, Polonia \u015fi Ungaria se afl\u0103 \u00een defla\u0163ie, \u00een timp ce \u00een statele vecine infla\u0163ia se afl\u0103 la minime record.<\/p>\n<p>\nM\u0103surile de stimulare ale BCE ar putea permite statelor est-europene s\u0103 men\u0163in\u0103 costurile de \u00eemprumut la minime record, iar \u00een unele cazuri sc\u0103derea \u00een continuare a acestora, sus\u0163in\u00e2nd astfel cre\u015fterea economic\u0103, a spus Neil Schearing, economist \u015fef pentru pie\u0163e emergente la Capital Economics, \u00een Londra.<\/p>\n<p>\n&#8220;Politicile monetare din Europa Central\u0103 \u015fi de Est vor r\u0103m\u00e2ne mai relaxate dec\u00e2t ar fi fost \u00een alt\u0103 situa\u0163ie. Polonia \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia ar putea reduce \u00een continuare dob\u00e2nzile, \u00een timp ce Cehia ar putea ajusta plafonul de apreciere a coroanei&#8221;, consider\u0103 Schearing.<\/p>\n<p>\nLichidit\u0103\u0163ile suplimentare de la BCE ar putea \u00eencuraja b\u0103ncile vest-europene, care domin\u0103 circa dou\u0103 treimi din industria bancar\u0103 din Est, prin b\u0103nci precum Erste Group Bank \u015fi Societe Generale, s\u0103 reduc\u0103 retragerile de capital din regiune, a ad\u0103ugat economistul.<\/p>\n<p>\nIni\u0163iativa lui Draghi implic\u0103 \u015fi riscuri pentru Europa de Est, precum intr\u0103rile de capital \u015fi formarea de bule speculative pe pie\u0163ele de obliga\u0163iuni, a avertizat s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 guvernatorul b\u0103ncii centrale a Poloniei, Marek Belka.<\/p>\n<p>\nPolonia a men\u0163inut s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2na trecut\u0103 dob\u00e2nda de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 la nivelul de 2%.<\/p>\n<p>\nBCE va evalua nivelul de 0,05% al dob\u00e2nzii cheie la \u015fedin\u0163a de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 de joi, la care majoritatea anali\u015ftilor anticipeaz\u0103 c\u0103 institu\u0163ia va anun\u0163a \u015fi lansarea unui program de achizi\u0163ii de obliga\u0163iuni guvernamentale \u00een valoare de 550 de miliarde de euro.<\/p>\n<p>\nUn alt risc este ca programul de achizi\u0163ii de obliga\u0163iuni al BCE s\u0103 nu confirme amploarea luat\u0103 deja \u00een calcul de investitorii \u00een active de pe pie\u0163ele est-europene, a spus Helena Horska, director de cercet\u0103ri la Raiffeisen Bank \u00een Praga.<\/p>\n<p>\nCu toate acestea, ritmul de cre\u015ftere economic\u0103 din Europa Central\u0103 \u015fi cele trei state baltice va r\u0103m\u00e2ne solid, de 2,6% \u00een acest an, potrivit estim\u0103rilor BERD publicate luni. \u00cen Europa de Sud-Est, avansul economic va fi de 2,2% \u00een 2015.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Europa de Est are motive s\u0103 se bucure de achizi\u0163iile de obliga\u0163iuni ale B\u0103ncii Centrale Europene (BCE), care ar contribui la cre\u015fterea economic\u0103 \u015fi evitarea defla\u0163iei, spre deosebire de Elve\u0163ia, pentru care m\u0103surile de stimulare vor avea ca efect aprecierea francului, potrivit anali\u015ftilor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[8830,10295],"class_list":["post-116800","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-bce","tag-europa-de-est"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=116800"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116800\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=116800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=116800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=116800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}