{"id":116432,"date":"2015-01-13T11:19:41","date_gmt":"2015-01-13T11:19:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=116432"},"modified":"2015-01-13T11:19:41","modified_gmt":"2015-01-13T11:19:41","slug":"economistul-sef-al-euler-hermes-spera-pentru-ce-i-mai-bun-dar-planifica-pentru-ce-i-mai-rau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=116432","title":{"rendered":"Economi\u015ftul-\u015fef al Euler Hermes: \u201eSper\u0103 pentru ce-i mai bun, dar planific\u0103 pentru ce-i mai r\u0103u\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\nLichiditatea, cererea \u015fi politica sunt cele trei elemente majore de urm\u0103rit \u00een 2015&#8243;, a declarat Ludovic Subran, economist-\u015fef pe Grup al Euler Hermes. &#8220;Ce consumator va salva lumea? Finan\u0163area comer\u0163ului va fi \u00eenc\u0103 optimist\u0103 \u00een condi\u0163iile unui dolar mai scump? \u015ei ce impact vor avea riscurile politice asupra deciziilor de <a href=\"#\" id=\"_GPLITA_3\" in_rurl=\"http:\/\/s.srv-itx.com\/click?v=Uk86NjEzMjE6MjUyNDppbnZlc3RpyJtpaTpkNmE5YjAxNTI2NjRmNjVkZjA0ODg1MzEzNmVjNDEwZjp6LTIyNjktMjAwOTQ4NjM6ZG1zLm0ucm86MTg3MjMzOjk1OTAyYmQwNWVhY2Q5NzQ2MTllMzRlZDdiMWM0NzZiOjg5MjExOThhNTA4MzQ4NDhiNDBhYmI1MDZlOTk0NzNlOjE6ZGF0YV9zcyw3MjV4MTIwMDtkYXRhX2ZiLG5vOzoxODk4OTI0Mg&#038;subid=g-20094863-a48ea94108f0402fbd33dcb4bc236310-&#038;data_ss=725x1200&#038;data_fb=no&#038;data_tagname=P\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;\" title=\"Click to Continue &gt; by CM\">investi\u0163ii<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdncache-a.akamaihd.net\/items\/it\/img\/arrow-10x10.png\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: 10px ! important; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: super ! important; width: 10px ! important;\" \/><\/a> private? Aceste trei teme sus\u0163in vechea zical\u0103 &#8220;sper\u0103 pentru ce-i mai bun, dar planific\u0103 pentru ce-i mai r\u0103u&#8221;, mai actual\u0103 ca oric\u00e2nd. De\u015fi am v\u0103zut o sc\u0103dere de 12% a insolven\u0163elor la nivel mondial \u00een 2014 \u015fi se a\u015fteapt\u0103 o continuare a sc\u0103derii de doar 3% \u00een 2015, exist\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 un risc considerabil la orizont pentru comer\u0163ul companiilor (B2B).&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\nIndicele Global al Insolven\u0163ei al Euler Hermes r\u0103m\u00e2ne cu 12% peste nivelul anterior crizei, cu evolu\u0163ii macroeconomice timide, ce c\u00e2nt\u0103resc \u00een declara\u0163iilor de venit \u015fi restric\u0163iile de finan\u0163are ale companiilor din mai multe \u0163\u0103ri. Se estimeaz\u0103 o cre\u015ftere a riscului de neplat\u0103 cu peste 23%,la sf\u00e2r\u015fitul anului 2014, \u00een mare parte datorit\u0103 dificult\u0103\u0163ilor din economiile Chinei \u015fi Rusiei &#8211; cre\u015fterea relativ sc\u0103zut\u0103 a celei din urm\u0103 devenind o nou\u0103 \u201enorm\u0103\u201d. De asemenea, media duratei de \u00eencasare a crea\u0163elor (DSO), este \u00een cre\u015ftere cu o zi \u00een fiecare an de la declan\u015farea crizei, ajung\u00e2nd 73 zile \u00een 2014.<\/p>\n<p>\nCercet\u0103ri Euler Hermes eviden\u0163iaz\u0103 \u00een special fragilitatea economiei Zonei Euro. Se citeaz\u0103 cererea slab\u0103, sub-investi\u0163iile semnificative \u00een infrastructur\u0103, presiunile negative asupra pre\u0163urilor \u015fi problemele continue de finan\u0163are a companiilor, ca nucleu al provoc\u0103rilor fundamentale pentru afacerile de pe continent.<\/p>\n<p>\n2014, un an al dezam\u0103girii, perturb\u0103rii \u015fi divergen\u0163ei<\/p>\n<p>\nLumea a \u00eenceput 2014 cu mult optimism, dar \u00een cele din urm\u0103 a fost un an de dezam\u0103gire persistent\u0103. Dintre cele 80 de economii majore acoperite de Euler Hermes, doar Spania \u015fi India au avut performate \u2013 modest, mai bune \u2013 sub a\u015ftept\u0103rile generale.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nLipsa de agresiune \u00een revenirea Zonei Euro r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een cele din urm\u0103 o problem\u0103 de cerere, at\u00e2t a companiilor, c\u00e2t \u015fi a consumatorilor. Foarte important, comer\u0163ul din interiorul Zonei Euro s-a luptat pentru a-\u015fi reveni, \u00eempiedic\u00e2nd \u00een continuare redresarea economic\u0103. Finan\u0163area companiilor continu\u0103 s\u0103 fie o problem\u0103, impiedic\u00e2nd oportunit\u0103\u0163ile de extindere atunci c\u00e2nd acestea apar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nEscaladarea tensiunilor \u015fi sanc\u0163iunilor \u00een Rusia \u015fi Ucraina au condus \u00een paralel la o cre\u015ftere a riscului de tranzac\u0163ionare asociat companiilor care opereaz\u0103 \u00een zon\u0103.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nVizibilitatea \u015fi amploarea amenin\u0163\u0103rii reprezentate de Statul Islamic a crescut pe parcursul lui 2014, costituind o amenin\u0163are existen\u0163ial\u0103 \u00een regiunea Orientului Mijlociu, \u00een special pentru <a href=\"#\" id=\"_GPLITA_2\" in_rurl=\"http:\/\/s.srv-itx.com\/click?v=Uk86NjEzMjE6MjUyNDppbnZlc3RpyJtpaTpmMDIwMWI3NmUwYzMzY2VkZjllZDQ3ZjExNjAyYzQxNTp6LTIyNjktMjAwOTQ4NjM6ZG1zLm0ucm86MTg3MjMxOjI1YmY1ZWVjMWIwZThkZWIyZTUyNzk3OTExMGE3MDhmOjVkZWNiZjQ0ODllMzRhN2U5NTQ2ZGRiM2EwMDZiZTVlOjE6ZGF0YV9zcyw3MjV4MTIwMDtkYXRhX2ZiLG5vOzoxODk4OTI0Mg&#038;subid=g-20094863-a48ea94108f0402fbd33dcb4bc236310-&#038;data_ss=725x1200&#038;data_fb=no&#038;data_tagname=LI\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: auto ! important; margin: 0px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: baseline ! important; width: auto ! important;\" title=\"Click to Continue &gt; by CM\">investi\u0163ii<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/cdncache-a.akamaihd.net\/items\/it\/img\/arrow-10x10.png\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% transparent ! important; border: medium none ! important; display: inline-block ! important; text-indent: 0px ! important; float: none ! important; font-weight: bold ! important; height: 10px ! important; margin: 0px 0px 0px 3px ! important; min-height: 0px ! important; min-width: 0px ! important; padding: 0px ! important; text-transform: uppercase ! important; text-decoration: underline ! important; vertical-align: super ! important; width: 10px ! important;\" \/><\/a> \u015fi finan\u0163are.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nChina a continuat pe calea sa de cre\u015ftere mai lent\u0103, dar mai concentrat\u0103 pe plan intern, mut\u00e2nd accentul de pe direc\u0163ia dominan\u0163iei investi\u0163iilor.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nBrazilia continu\u0103 progresul modest, cu o cre\u015ftere a\u015fteptat\u0103 la 0,3% \u00een 2014, posibil mai sc\u0103zut\u0103 dec\u00e2t a multor \u0163\u0103ri din Zona Euro. Dependen\u0163a de cheltuielile de consum, combinat\u0103 cu lipsa investi\u0163iilor publice \u015fi private pe parcursul anilor \u00een care pre\u0163urile materiilor prime erau greu de clintit, au l\u0103sat \u0163ara extrem de expus\u0103 la recentul declin al acestor pre\u0163uri. Mexic, pe de alt\u0103 parte, a \u00eenregistrat o cre\u015ftere consolidat\u0103, ca beneficiar al efectului de revenire economic\u0103 al SUA. Reformele structurale au stimulat \u00eencrederea investitorilor, iar presiunile infla\u0163ioniste au r\u0103mas ascuse.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\n2015, caracterizat de lichiditate, cerere \u015fi politic\u0103<\/p>\n<p>\nEuler Hermes estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 economia Zonei Euro va cre\u015fte cu doar 1,0% \u00een 2015, \u00een timp ce PIB-ul mondial va cre\u015fte cu 2,8%, al patrulea an consecutiv sub 3% \u015fi doar u\u015for stimulat\u0103 de cre\u015fterea pie\u0163ei emergente la un posibil 4,3%. Cercetarea realizat\u0103 de companie sugereaz\u0103 c\u0103 cele mai bune oportunit\u0103\u0163i pentru exportatori sunt de a-\u015fi \u00eendreapta aten\u0163ia spre regiunile \u00een care cre\u015fterea este mai puternic\u0103 &#8211; Africa (4,9%), Asia (4,7%) \u015fi Orientul Mijlociu (3,8%) &#8211; \u00een timp ce sunt echipa\u0163i pentru riscurile de neplat\u0103.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\nConsumul din SUA, Marea Britanie \u015fi Germania, se va ridica la un nivel ceva mai bun, dar departe de cel din 2008. \u00cen plus, \u00een contextul unei lumi defla\u0163ioniste, volumul comer\u0163ului mondial \u015fi pre\u0163urile sunt sub media pe termen lung.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nSe a\u015fteapt\u0103 ca majorarea ratei de politic\u0103 monetar\u0103 \u00een 2015 a Rezervei Federale Americane s\u0103 aib\u0103 un impact limitat asupra restului lumii, dar \u00eenc\u0103 presupune un risc mai mare pentru companiile exportatoare \u00een \u0163\u0103rile \u00een curs de dezvoltare, cu un deficit mare de cont curent (de exemplu, Brazilia, India, Africa de Sud \u015fi Turcia).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\nPrivind mai departe, Euler Hermes avertizeaz\u0103 asupra riscului geo-politic cresc\u00e2nd, \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care mai mult de 40% din popula\u0163ia lumii va vota \u00een 2015, iar politicile publice tind s\u0103 fie \u00eenclinate mai mult spre interven\u0163ionism.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\nSubran a continuat: &#8220;Sunt semnale pozitive peste tot \u00een lume, de la revenirea produc\u0163iei \u00een SUA, la ie\u015firea din recesiune a Italiei, la noi pie\u0163e de frontier\u0103 ce ofer\u0103 un poten\u0163ial important pentru echipamente industriale \u015fi de uz casnic. Dar exist\u0103, de asemenea, \u015fi unde de bruiaj, iar separarea celor dou\u0103 aspecte va fi crucial\u0103 pentru restabilirea \u00eencrederii durabile, a investi\u0163iilor \u015fi a stabilit\u0103\u0163ii. Companiile sunt obi\u015fnuite cu crizele \u015fi au c\u00e2\u015ftigat experien\u0163\u0103 \u015fi cuno\u015ftiin\u0163e; \u00eembog\u0103\u0163irea setului propriu de instrumente pentru interna\u0163ionalizarea de succes va fi mai important\u0103 dec\u00e2t oric\u00e2nd. &#8220;<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\n&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Riscul de neplat\u0103 din partea companiilor nu a disp\u0103rut, iar pruden\u0163a este de actualitate \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care lumea continu\u0103 s\u0103 sufere de previziuni modeste ale cre\u015fterii economice \u015fi comerciale, conform celui mai recent studiu economic \u201eUn m\u0103r putred poate stricta tot co\u015ful\u201d, al companiei de asigurare a crean\u0163elor Euler Hermes.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[17014,201,182,13726,13242],"class_list":["post-116432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-brazilia","tag-companii","tag-criza","tag-economist","tag-zona-euro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=116432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116432\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=116432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=116432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=116432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}