{"id":111274,"date":"2014-09-04T11:49:00","date_gmt":"2014-09-04T11:49:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=111274"},"modified":"2014-09-04T11:49:00","modified_gmt":"2014-09-04T11:49:00","slug":"acest-antreprenor-spune-ca-un-elev-de-liceu-intelege-mai-bine-economia-decat-victor-ponta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=111274","title":{"rendered":"Acest antreprenor spune c\u0103 un elev de liceu \u00een\u0163elege mai bine economia dec\u00e2t Victor Ponta"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\nConceptele de baz\u0103 din mecanic\u0103 \u2013 vitez\u0103, accelera\u0163ie sau decelara\u0163ie \u2013 erau folosite \u00een mod creativ pentru a construi un model, \u00een care printre parametrii utiliza\u0163i era \u015fi dinamica Produsului Intern Brut (PIB). \u00cen urm\u0103 cu dou\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103mani, dup\u0103 istoria abracadabrant\u0103 cu Institutul Na\u0163ional de Statistic\u0103 (INS) \u015fi datele oficiale statistice privind indicatorul macroeconomic PIB, premierul Victor Ponta a postat pe Facebook un mesaj \u00een care afirma c\u0103 este ca \u015fi c\u00e2nd Rom\u00e2nia mergea cu ma\u015fina cu 130 kilometri la or\u0103 \u015fi acum merge cu 100 kilometri la or\u0103, dar merge \u201etot \u00eenainte!\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>\nAceast\u0103 afirma\u0163ie mirobolant\u0103 aduce z\u00e2mbetul pe buze din dou\u0103 direc\u0163ii: prima ar fi partea referitoare la reducerea semnificativ\u0103 a vitezei, iar cea de-a doua ar fi partea str\u0103vechiului \u015fi nemuritorului \u00eendemn comunist. Nu trebuie s\u0103 fii un geniu pentru a \u00een\u0163elege c\u0103 postul de prim-ministru nu presupune automat \u015fi o \u00een\u0163elegere minim\u0103 la nivelul bunului sim\u0163 a fenonemelor macroeconomice. Dar consider c\u0103 un elev de \u015fcoala primar\u0103 poate \u00een\u0163elege faptul c\u0103 \u015feful executivului trebuie s\u0103 aib\u0103 priceperea de a coopta \u00een echipa sa oameni cu o expertiz\u0103 tehnic\u0103 indubitabil\u0103 necesar\u0103 \u00een administrarea unui guvern.<\/p>\n<p>\nPrin reducere la absurd, s\u0103 presupunem c\u0103 domnul Ponta are dreptate c\u00e2nd afirm\u0103 c\u0103 viteza ini\u0163ial\u0103 de deplasare a economiei Rom\u00e2niei este de 130 km\/h, iar cea final\u0103 de 100 km\/h. Cum viteza este raportul dintre varia\u0163ia de spa\u0163iu parcurs \u015fi varia\u0163ia de timp, s\u0103 alegem dou\u0103 unit\u0103\u0163i de timp: perioada anual\u0103 \u015fi perioada trimestrial\u0103. Dac\u0103 ar fi s\u0103 judec\u0103m dup\u0103 ritmul de cre\u015ftere anual al PIB, Rom\u00e2nia a \u00eenregistrat un ritm de +0,6% \u00een 2012 \u015fi un ritm de +3,5% \u00een 2013. Similar, Germania a \u00eenregistrat o cre\u015ftere a PIB de 0,7% \u00een 2012 \u015fi de 0,4% \u00een 2013. Prin compara\u0163ie, \u00eemi vine foarte greu s\u0103 cred c\u0103 economia Rom\u00e2niei atinge viteza sunetului \u00een compara\u0163ie cu cea a Germaniei.<\/p>\n<p>\nDac\u0103 ar fi s\u0103 judec\u0103m dup\u0103 ritmul de cre\u015ftere trimestrial al PIB, Rom\u00e2nia a \u00eenregistrat un ritm de -0,2% \u00een T1 \u015fi un ritm de -1,0% \u00een T2. Matematic vorbind, viteza este prima derivat\u0103 a spa\u0163iului \u00een raport cu timpul, iar accelera\u0163ia este a doua derivat\u0103 a spa\u0163iului \u00een raport cu timpul. Un elev de liceu poate concluziona c\u0103 economia Rom\u00e2niei \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 o decelera\u0163ie puternic\u0103, \u015fi asta \u00een contextul \u00een care ritmul de cre\u015ftere a PIB nu putea atinge cote stelare \u00eentr-o perioad\u0103 extrem de scurt\u0103 imediat dup\u0103 criza din 2009-2010.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u00cen ceea ce prive\u015fte sensul de deplasare a economiei \u015fi judec\u00e2nd \u00een termeni absolu\u0163i, valoarea PIB-ului la 30 iunie 2014 este inferioar\u0103 celei \u00eenregistrate la 31 martie 2014. Un copil de gr\u0103dini\u0163\u0103 \u015ftie c\u0103 2 mere sunt mai pu\u0163ine dec\u00e2t 3 mere, a\u015fa c\u0103 realitatea arat\u0103 c\u0103 economia Rom\u00e2niei la finele T2 este \u00een urma celei de la \u00eenceputul anului. Conform logicii domnului prim-ministru, chiar \u015fi \u00een contextul unei recesiuni, economia merge \u201e\u00eenainte\u201c. S\u0103 \u00een\u0163elegem c\u0103 at\u00e2t \u00een mai vechea falimentar\u0103 Grecie c\u00e2t \u015fi \u00een noua falimentar\u0103 Argentina cet\u0103\u0163enii ies ferici\u0163i pe strad\u0103 scand\u00e2nd \u00een unanimitate \u201eTot \u00eenainte!\u201c? Nu prea cred.<\/p>\n<p>\n\u00cen universul Wall Street \u015fi nu numai, se spune c\u0103 \u00een via\u0163\u0103 este bine s\u0103 ai \u201ecommon sense\u201c. Dac\u0103 \u00eel posezi s-ar putea s\u0103 \u00ee\u0163i fie de folos, dar dac\u0103 nu \u00eel posezi este posibil s\u0103 ai probleme majore.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessmagazin.ro\/cover-story\/bm-storytellers-povestile-ultimilor-zece-ani-spuse-de-mihai-albu-toni-iordache-si-radu-enache-12976762\">de TONI IORDACHE (antreprenor)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cu mul\u0163i ani \u00een urm\u0103, pe c\u00e2nd f\u0103ceam primii pa\u015fi ca trader FX pe Wall Street, am creat un model macroeconomic global \u00een care foloseam analogia randamentului unui motor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[529],"tags":[188,5229,7931,7286,10839],"class_list":["post-111274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinii","tag-economie","tag-model","tag-pib","tag-randament","tag-wall-street"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=111274"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111274\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=111274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=111274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=111274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}