\nBris crede c\u0103 noua criz\u0103 poate fi declan\u015fat\u0103 de opt posibile scenarii:<\/p>\n
\n1. O bul\u0103 speculativ\u0103 pe pia\u0163a de capital: \u00cen ultima perioad\u0103 pie\u0163ele de apital au avut o evolu\u0163ie nerealist\u0103 \u015fi \u00een unele cazuri situa\u0163ia va degenera. \u00cen 2014 anali\u015ftii s-au ar\u0103tat dezam\u0103gi\u0163i, \u00een primul trimestru al anului, a\u015ftept\u0103rile dep\u0103\u015find c\u00e2\u015ftigurile reale. Pentru a aduce pie\u0163ele la un nivel al c\u00e2\u015ftigurilor corelat cu a\u015ftept\u0103rile investitorilor, ac\u0163iunile ar trebui s\u0103 cad\u0103 cu 30 – 35%.<\/p>\n
\n2. Sistemul bancar din China: o criz\u0103 sever\u0103 ar putea ap\u0103rea din cauza num\u0103rului mare de \u00eemprumuturi acordate institu\u0163iilor guvernamentale, slab monitorizate \u015fi imune la competi\u0163ie. Dac\u0103 acest sistem se va pr\u0103bu\u015fi, va afecta negativ economia global\u0103.<\/p>\n
\n3. O criz\u0103 energetic\u0103: \u00een cazul \u00een care SUA, devenit\u0103 cel mai mare produc\u0103tor mondial de gaze, va \u00eencepe s\u0103 exporte, Rusia s-ar putea sim\u0163i amenin\u0163at\u0103 \u015fi ar cauza o disput\u0103 geopolitic\u0103 major\u0103. Statele Unite vor ac\u0163iona pentru a de\u0163ine controlul pre\u0163urilor energiei \u015fi \u015fi-ar putea extinde influen\u0163a asupra Marii Britanii, Indiei sau Japoniei.
\n4. O bul\u0103 imobiliar\u0103: Brazilia, China, Canada sau Germania ar putea fi afectate de o criz\u0103 imobiliar\u0103, generat\u0103 de u\u015furin\u0163a cu care se ob\u0163in finan\u0163\u0103rile \u015fi de modul nes\u0103buit \u00een care cump\u0103r\u0103torii urc\u0103 pre\u0163urile, f\u0103r\u0103 a \u0163ine cont de realit\u0103\u0163ile pie\u0163elor.<\/p>\n
\n5. Un val de falimente corporatiste: BBB este noul AA. Companiile au devenit din ce \u00een ce mai \u00eendatorate, iar ultima regul\u0103 este un rating BBB; \u00een SUA doar trei companii mai au un rating AAA, este vorba de ExxonMobil, Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson. Dac\u0103 dob\u00e2nzile vor cre\u015fte cu doar 2%, jum\u0103tate din corpora\u0163ii vor disp\u0103rea.
\n6. R\u0103zboiul \u015fi conflictele interna\u0163ionale: Mai peste tot \u00een lume, cu excep\u0163ia unor zone din Europa \u015fi a Statelor Unite, tensiunile geopolitice cresc. Evenimente cum a fost criza din Crimeea pot duce la o pr\u0103bu\u015fire a pie\u0163elor, chiar f\u0103r\u0103 un conflict armat.<\/p>\n
\n7. S\u0103r\u0103cia \u00een cre\u015ftere: s\u0103r\u0103cia a crescut \u00een \u00eenteaga lume, \u015fi, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce s\u0103racii vor deveni mai s\u0103raci, sunt de a\u015fteptat conflicte sociale. Cruciadele \u00eempotriva inegalit\u0103\u0163ii ar putea avea efecte neb\u0103nuite \u00een zone precum inova\u0163ia, amenin\u0163\u00e2nd economia.<\/p>\n
\n8. Lichidit\u0103\u0163ile \u015fi hiperinfla\u0163ia: cantit\u0103\u0163ile suplimentare de cash pe care b\u0103ncile centrale \u015fi corpora\u0163iile le p\u0103streaz\u0103 ar putea v\u0103t\u0103ma economia. Banca Central\u0103 European\u0103 se afl\u0103 \u00eentr-un crec vicios al credit\u0103rii institu\u0163iilor financiare, iar companii precum Google ar putea “cump\u0103ra” pachetul majoritar de ac\u0163iuni al Irlandei, iar Microsoft mai mult de 50% din Singapore, ceea ce este cel pu\u0163in imoral, conchide Bris.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Arturo Bris, profesor la International Institute for Management Development din Laussane, Elve\u0163ia \u015fi directorul World Competitiveness Center crede c\u0103, \u00een lipsa unor m\u0103suri corespunz\u0103toare, o nou\u0103 criz\u0103 global\u0103 va izbucni, cel mai t\u00e2rziu \u00een aprilie 2015. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[510],"tags":[7172,14742,246,182,452,7553,217,7217,10898,60,16545],"class_list":["post-109038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualitate","tag-actiuni","tag-asteptari","tag-crestere","tag-criza","tag-director","tag-elvetia","tag-international","tag-management","tag-masuri","tag-piata","tag-profesor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109038","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=109038"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109038\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=109038"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=109038"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=109038"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}