{"id":107040,"date":"2014-05-13T12:05:00","date_gmt":"2014-05-13T12:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=107040"},"modified":"2014-05-13T12:05:00","modified_gmt":"2014-05-13T12:05:00","slug":"romania-bate-la-usile-agentiilor-de-rating-incercand-sa-le-convinga-ca-merita-calificative-mai-bune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=107040","title":{"rendered":"Rom\u00e2nia bate la u\u015file agen\u0163iilor de rating \u00eencerc\u00e2nd s\u0103 le conving\u0103 c\u0103 merit\u0103 calificative mai bune"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nAU TRECUT APROAPE \u015eASE ANI DE C\u00c2ND AU AP\u0102RUT PRIMII NORI NEGRI AI CRIZEI MONDIALE, CRIZ\u0102 CARE A ADUS ODAT\u0102 CU DECLINUL PIE\u0162ELOR FINANCIARE \u015eI AL ECONOMIILOR \u015eI VESTEA NEPL\u0102CUT\u0102 A RETROGRAD\u0102RII RATINGULUI ROM\u00c2NIEI \u00ceN LIGA \u201eJUNK\u201e.<\/p>\n

\n\u015ei tot at\u00e2t timp a trecut de c\u00e2nd Rom\u00e2nia bate necontenit la u\u015file marilor agen\u0163ii de rating \u00eencerc\u00e2nd s\u0103 le conving\u0103 c\u0103 este pe drumul cel bun \u015fi c\u0103 merit\u0103 calificative mai bune.<\/p>\n

\nO \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a ratingului Rom\u00e2niei ar avea consecin\u0163e pozitive pentru pia\u0163a de capital, dar \u015fi pentru rela\u0163ia cu alte categorii de investitori. Un calificativ mai bun poate s\u0103 se reflecte \u00eentr-o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a percep\u0163iei investitorilor, \u00een prime de risc de \u0163ar\u0103 mai sc\u0103zute, adic\u0103 \u00een costuri de finan\u0163are de pe pia\u0163\u0103 mai mici.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\u00cen timp ce Moody\u2019s a r\u0103mas conservatoare \u00een toat\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 de criz\u0103, men\u0163in\u00e2nd calificativul Rom\u00e2niei \u00een categoria recomandat\u0103 investitorilor, Standard & Poor\u2019s (S&P) \u015fi Fitch s-au gr\u0103bit s\u0103 ne coboare \u00een toamna anului 2008 la un etaj inferior, \u00een categoria \u201ejunk\u201e.<\/p>\n

\nAstfel, \u0163ara a fost scoas\u0103 din categoria \u0163\u0103rilor cu risc sc\u0103zut \u00een care intrase \u00een 2005. Cu excep\u0163ia notei de la Moody\u2019s, Rom\u00e2nia a ajuns s\u0103 aib\u0103 ratinguri mai proaste dec\u00e2t la momentul intr\u0103rii \u00een Uniunea European\u0103. Startul retrograd\u0103rii a fost dat de c\u0103tre S&P – \u015fi Rom\u00e2nia devenea \u00een 2008 singura \u0163ar\u0103 membr\u0103 a Uniunii Europene cu rating sub pragul recomandat pentru investi\u0163ii. Apoi, a urmat agen\u0163ia de rating Fitch.<\/p>\n

\n\u015ei, dac\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea anului 2011 Fitch s-a \u00eenduplecat s\u0103 ne dea biletul de trecere pentru re\u00een-toarcerea \u00een categoria cu risc acceptabil pentru investi\u0163ii, major\u00e2nd calificativul acordat Rom\u00e2niei cu o treapt\u0103, S&P \u015fi-a p\u0103strat o optic\u0103 mai sever\u0103, sanc\u0163ion\u00e2nd mai dur Rom\u00e2nia. \u00cen ciuda \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163irii indicatorilor fundamentali ai economiei, a sc\u0103derii deficitelor \u015fi a trei acorduri succesive cu FMI, S&P nu a vrut s\u0103 crediteze Rom\u00e2nia cu calificative mai bune \u015fi a men\u0163inut ratingul \u00een \u201ejunk\u201e.<\/p>\n

\nIar plasamentele \u00een titluri emise de Rom\u00e2nia pe pie\u0163ele interna\u0163ionale de capital au r\u0103mas \u00een categoria celor cu un grad speculativ ridicat.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\nCalificativul S&P a ajuns s\u0103 fie \u00een contradic\u0163ie cu situa\u0163ia concret\u0103 de pe pia\u0163\u0103, unde percep\u0163ia de risc \u00een ceea ce prive\u015fte Rom\u00e2nia s-a \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163it considerabil.<\/p>\n

\nCalificativele agen\u0163iilor de rating au fost monitorizate cu mare aten\u0163ie de pie\u0163ele financiare \u00een anii care au precedat criza. Dar blazonul agen\u0163iilor de rating a ie\u015fit u\u015for \u015fifonat de scandaluri \u00een ultimii ani. Iar investitorii de pe pie\u0163ele externe de capital, \u015fi nu numai, au \u00eenceput s\u0103 nu mai pun\u0103 at\u00e2t de mult accentul pe nivelul ratingurilor. \u015ei titlurile rom\u00e2ne\u015fti au ajuns s\u0103 fie tranzac\u0163ionate ca \u015fi c\u00e2nd notele ar fi substan\u0163ial mai bune.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\nPractic, \u00een ultimii ani nu a mai existat o leg\u0103tur\u0103 direct\u0103 \u00eentre evaluarea f\u0103cut\u0103 de pie\u0163e \u015fi ratingurile de \u0163ar\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia reu\u015find s\u0103 se \u00eemprumute de pe pie\u0163ele externe la costuri mai mici dec\u00e2t cele pl\u0103tite de unele \u0163\u0103ri cu rating mai bun. Randamentele la care s-a \u00eemprumutat statul at\u00e2t de pe pie\u0163ele externe, c\u00e2t \u015fi de pe pia\u0163a intern\u0103 au fost \u00een sc\u0103dere \u00een ultimii ani, ajung\u00e2nd pentru unele scaden\u0163e chiar la minime istorice.<\/p>\n

\nCu chiu, cu vai, \u00een noiembrie 2013 S&P a decis s\u0103 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163easc\u0103 doar perspectiva ratingului Rom\u00e2niei, de la \u201estabil\u0103\u201e la \u201epozitiv\u0103\u201e. \u00cembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163irea perspectivei de rating la pozitiv a deschis practic calea spre o cre\u015ftere a ratingului dac\u0103 guvernul respect\u0103 programul fiscal \u015fi cel de reform\u0103. De altfel, S&P a promis c\u0103 exist\u0103 o \u015fans\u0103 din trei ca ratingul s\u0103 revin\u0103 \u00een categoria \u201einvestment grade\u201e \u00een acest an. De-abia \u00een 2013, dup\u0103 cinci ani de la retrogradare, S&P a reu\u015fit s\u0103 remarce consolidarea fiscal\u0103, cre\u015fterea semnificativ\u0103 a exporturilor \u015fi stabilitatea sectorului financiar.<\/p>\n

\n\u00cen mod normal, progresele \u00eenregistrate la nivelul economiei ar trebui s\u0103 se oglindeasc\u0103 \u015fi \u00eentr-o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a ratingului.<\/p>\n

\nRatingul Rom\u00e2niei ar putea s\u0103 fie \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163it de c\u0103tre S&P \u00een situa\u0163ia \u00een care programul de consolidare bugetar\u0103, reforma finan\u0163elor publice \u015fi restructurarea companiilor de stat se vor desf\u0103\u015fura \u00een linie cu a\u015ftept\u0103rile agen\u0163iei, concomitent cu men\u0163inerea controlului asupra dezechilibrelor externe \u015fi a stabilit\u0103\u0163ii sectorului financiar.<\/p>\n

\nSperan\u0163ele unor calificative mai bune de la agen\u0163iile de rating au fost alimentate \u015fi de declara\u0163ii venite de la oficialii guvernamentali. Liviu Voinea, ministrul bugetului, s-a ar\u0103tat \u00eencrez\u0103tor c\u0103 2014 ar putea aduce mult r\u00e2vnita \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a ratingului, adic\u0103 revenirea Rom\u00e2niei \u00een categoria recomandat\u0103 investitorilor – \u201einvestment grade\u201e. De ce? Pentru c\u0103 \u201edatele macro justific\u0103 acest lucru\u201e. Voinea a fost \u00een aprilie la Washington la reuniunea de prim\u0103var\u0103 a FMI \u015fi a B\u0103ncii Mondiale, unde a avut \u00eent\u00e2lniri \u015fi cu oficialii agen\u0163iilor de rating S&P \u015fi Moody\u2019s, cu care a discutat despre situa\u0163ia economic\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei. Marea miz\u0103? S\u0103 reu\u015feasc\u0103 s\u0103 schimbe viziunea acestora \u015fi s\u0103 smulg\u0103 o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a calificativelor acordate Rom\u00e2niei.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n\u00cen cazul Moody\u2019s a func\u0163ionat. Singura mare agen\u0163ie de rating care a men\u0163inut calificativul Rom\u00e2niei \u00een to\u0163i anii de criz\u0103 \u00een categoria recomandat\u0103 investitorilor a decis recent s\u0103 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163easc\u0103 perspectiva ratingului la stabil\u0103, datorit\u0103 \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163irii cadrului fiscal-bugetar, reducerii deficitului de cont curent \u015fi diminu\u0103rii riscurilor din zona euro asupra cre\u015fterii economice \u015fi balan\u0163ei de pl\u0103\u0163i. Ratingul Rom\u00e2niei ar putea s\u0103 fie \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163it de Moody\u2019s dac\u0103 se va \u00eenregistra o accelerare pronun\u0163at\u0103 a cre\u015fterii economice f\u0103r\u0103 amplificarea dezechilibrelor macroeconomice, concomitent cu o cre\u015ftere a eficien\u0163ei sectorului de stat, o \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u0163ire a serviciului datoriei externe \u015fi diminuarea riscurilor de finan\u0163are.<\/p>\n

\nPe de alt\u0103 parte, agen\u0163ia de evaluare financiar\u0103 avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 inversarea consolid\u0103rii fiscale recente, sc\u0103derea competitivit\u0103\u0163ii sau \u00eenr\u0103u-t\u0103\u0163irea balan\u0163ei de pl\u0103\u0163i ar putea pune presiune \u00een sensul reducerii ratingului acordat Rom\u00e2niei. Efortul de convingere al oficialilor rom\u00e2ni este a\u015fteptat s\u0103 dea roade \u00een 2014 \u015fi \u00een cazul S&P \u015fi s\u0103 ie\u015fim din acest an cu o imagine pozitiv\u0103 dat\u0103 \u015fi de agen\u0163iile de rating.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cu toat\u0103 stabilitatea macroeconomic\u0103, Rom\u00e2nia nu a reu\u015fit timp de aproape \u015fase ani s\u0103 scape de stigmatul junk, aplicat \u00eenc\u0103 de la debutul crizei mondiale de Standard & Poor\u2019s. \u00cen 2014, Rom\u00e2nia sper\u0103 mai mult ca oric\u00e2nd s\u0103 primeasc\u0103 o not\u0103 mai bun\u0103 pentru riscul de \u0163ar\u0103, drept recunoa\u015ftere a progreselor economice \u00eenregistrate \u00een ultimii ani. C\u00e2t de mult conteaz\u0103 ast\u0103zi ratingul \u00een atragerea investi\u0163iilor sau \u00een creditare?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[530],"tags":[16607,26791,557,14596,21550,149,32980,23948,7504,80,9184,98,19707],"class_list":["post-107040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analize","tag-aplicare","tag-atragere","tag-creditare","tag-criza-mondiala","tag-debut","tag-investitii","tag-nota","tag-perspectiva","tag-rating","tag-refuz","tag-risc","tag-romania","tag-timp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=107040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/107040\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=107040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=107040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=107040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}