\nDe ce criza economic\u0103 a fost previzibil\u0103 pentru economi\u015fti, jurnali\u015fti sau publicul larg (c\u0103ut\u0103rile pe Google ale termenului Housing Bubble s-au \u00eenmul\u0163it de zece ori din ianuarie 2004 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een vara lui 2005, in timp ce termenul de “bul\u0103 imobiliar\u0103” fusese folosit de numai opt ori \u00een programele de \u015ftiri din 2001 \u015fi de 3.447 ori \u00een 2005), dar agen\u0163iile de rating, care trebuiau s\u0103 m\u0103soare riscul pe pie\u0163ele financiare, spun c\u0103 lor le-a sc\u0103pat?<\/p>\n
\nNate Silver, scriitor, statistician, fondator al blogului politic FiveThirtyEight.com, a scris ditamai cartea pe aceast\u0103 tem\u0103. Ideea lui Silver este simpl\u0103 – elimini zgomotul, analizezi semnalul \u015fi e\u015fti \u00een m\u0103sur\u0103 s\u0103 prevezi ce se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla -, dar punerea \u00een practic\u0103 este c\u00e2t se poate de complicat\u0103. Cum \u015ftii ce este zgomot \u015fi ce este semnal?<\/p>\n
\nUnii \u015ftiu; nu sunt infailibili, dar reu\u015fesc. Un profesor de psihologie de la universitatea din California vorbe\u015fte despre arici \u015fi vulpi; primii cred \u00een Ideile Mari, care guverneaz\u0103 lumea, echivalentul legilor care guverneaz\u0103 fizica – genul Karl Marx care explic\u0103 orice folosind lupta de clas\u0103. Vulpile, \u00een schimb, cred \u00eentr-o mul\u0163ime de idei mici, recurg la o sumedenie de abord\u0103ri ale unei probleme, sunt mai tolerante fa\u0163\u0103 de nuan\u0163e, incertitudine, complexitate \u015fi opinii divergente. Vulpile sunt mult mai performante dec\u00e2t aricii \u00een materie de predic\u0163ii.<\/p>\n
\nFolosind exemple din baseball, poker, meteorologie, \u015fah sau tehnologie, Silver, el \u00eensu\u015fi autorul unui sistem de prognoz\u0103 a performan\u0163elor \u00een baseball, deslu\u015fe\u015fte c\u00e2teva dintre secretele predic\u0163iei corecte. F\u0103r\u0103 nicio preten\u0163ie de a prezice \u00een mod corect, spun c\u0103 “Semnalul \u015fi zgomotul” ar trebui s\u0103 se afle pe lista celor mai bine v\u00e2ndute c\u0103r\u0163i de afaceri din urm\u0103toarea perioad\u0103.<\/p>\n
\nNate Silver – “Semnalul \u015fi zgomotul. De ce at\u00e2t de multe predic\u0163ii dau gre\u015f – pe c\u00e2nd altele reu\u015fesc”, Editura Publica, Bucure\u015fti, 2013<\/strong><\/ins><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Iat\u0103 o \u00eentrebare extrem de interesant\u0103, pe care Nate Silver o pune: de ce cele mai multe dintre predic\u0163ii dau gre\u015f \u015fi at\u00e2t de pu\u0163ine se adeveresc? De ce reu\u015fesc cei lipsi\u0163i, aparent, de abilit\u0103\u0163i de predic\u0163ie \u015fi de ce dau gre\u015f cei doldora de informa\u0163ii, speciali\u015fti \u015fi instrumente adecvate, cum sunt agen\u0163iile de rating?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7194],"tags":[7193,21528,35764,20497,20403,35765,425],"class_list":["post-101603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-carte","tag-carte","tag-editura-publica","tag-nate-silver","tag-predictii","tag-psihologie","tag-semnalul-si-zgomotul","tag-statistica"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101603","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=101603"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101603\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=101603"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=101603"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=101603"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}