{"id":100051,"date":"2013-10-07T12:43:00","date_gmt":"2013-10-07T12:43:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=100051"},"modified":"2013-10-07T12:43:00","modified_gmt":"2013-10-07T12:43:00","slug":"cineva-sa-i-mai-opreasca-pe-experti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/?p=100051","title":{"rendered":"Cineva s\u0103-i mai opreasc\u0103 pe exper\u0163i!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\nO poveste despre exper\u0163i: \u00een vara anului 1998, John Meriwether, o legend\u0103 a Wall Streetului, s-a asociat cu doi laurea\u0163i ai Premiului Nobel pentru economie, Myron Scholes \u015fi Robert Merton, au angajat un num\u0103r de tineri extrem de bine cota\u0163i pe acela\u015fi Wall Street, to\u0163i genii \u00een matematic\u0103, \u015fi au \u00eenfiin\u0163at fondul de investi\u0163ii Long-Term Capital Management, form\u00e2nd ceea ce un analist numea Proiectul Manhattan al investi\u0163iilor. \u015ei, pentru c\u0103 lumea era convins\u0103 c\u0103 o asemenea echip\u0103 nu poate da gre\u015f, a fost o \u00eembulzeal\u0103 grozav\u0103 pentru intrarea \u00een fond, chiar dac\u0103 doritorii trebuia s\u0103 vin\u0103 cu cel pu\u0163in 10 milioane de dolari, iar un sfert din c\u00e2\u015ftiguri mergeau la managerii fondului.<\/p>\n

\nNu multe luni mai t\u00e2rziu a izbucnit criza economic\u0103 din Rusia, care aproape a \u00eengenuncheat \u0163ara vecin\u0103 \u015fi prieten\u0103; ceva mai \u00eenainte \u015fi Asia trecuse printr-un \u015foc major. A\u015fa c\u0103 investitorii s-au isterizat \u015fi au \u00eenceput s\u0103 se fereasc\u0103 de instrumente financiare de risc. LTCM s-a trezit cu sacul plin de ac\u0163iuni care nu mai interesau pe nimeni, iar pre\u0163urile se pr\u0103bu\u015feau v\u0103z\u00e2nd cu ochii. \u00cen numai dou\u0103 luni fondul a pierdut 4,5 miliarde de dolari, bani serio\u015fi \u00een urm\u0103 cu un deceniu \u015fi jum\u0103tate, iar \u00eencerc\u0103rile de a-l redresa \u015fi de a mai recupera c\u00e2te ceva din pierderi au dus la noi sc\u0103deri de pre\u0163uri \u015fi la pagube considerabile pentru toate institu\u0163iile financiare de pe Wall Street.<\/p>\n

\nDe atunci au ap\u0103rut o sumedenie de articole \u015fi c\u0103r\u0163i care explic\u0103 unde au gre\u015fit starurile \u00een investi\u0163ii \u015fi laurea\u0163ii cu Nobel \u00een economie. Fundamental, toate mi\u015fc\u0103rile pe care le-au f\u0103cut au fost corecte \u015fi au ales ac\u0163iuni c\u00e2t se poate de sigure – erau, de exemplu, obliga\u0163iuni ipotecare daneze.<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\nDar, dac\u0103 matematic erau acoperi\u0163i, speciali\u015ftii \u00een cauz\u0103 au gre\u015fit \u00een privin\u0163a reac\u0163iilor oamenilor: credeau c\u0103 pre\u0163urile vor reveni la valorile mari anterioare, c\u0103 al\u0163i investitori se vor dovedi \u00een continuare interesa\u0163i de ac\u0163iuni \u015fi c\u0103 ace\u015ftia \u00ee\u015fi vor asuma riscuri \u00een orice condi\u0163ii ale pie\u0163ei. Dar investitorii, mai inteligen\u0163i sau mai pu\u0163in inteligen\u0163i, au reac\u0163ionat cu to\u0163ii la fel, iar diferen\u0163ele de inteligen\u0163\u0103 nu au mai contat deloc, pentru c\u0103 erau prea asem\u0103n\u0103tori ca s\u0103 mai fie inteligen\u0163i.<\/p>\n

\nCe vreau s\u0103 spun este c\u0103, pentru a fi inteligent, pentru a judeca \u015fi pentru a decide, trebuie s\u0103 ai \u00een fa\u0163\u0103 toate datele problemei, s\u0103 \u015ftii, \u00een cazul LTCM, nu numai matematic\u0103 \u015fi economie, ci \u015fi psihologie, sociologie, istorie sau geografie. Altfel, po\u0163i \u00eenghi\u0163i pe nemestecate tot soiul de baliverne, spuse pe un ton academic. Sau superior. Un alt exemplu, criza dotcom. A fost o perioad\u0103 c\u00e2nd traficul cre\u015ftea cu 1.000% pe an, iar mantra era \u201eInveste\u015fte, investe\u015fte, investe\u015fte, oriunde, oricum!\u201e.<\/p>\n

\nC\u00e2nd cre\u015fterea s-a mai temperat, oamenii au refuzat s\u0103 vad\u0103 asta, pentru c\u0103 li se repeta 1.000%, investe\u015fte, investe\u015fte.
\nDac\u0103 cineva nu-i opre\u015fte pe exper\u0163i, atunci m\u0103car \u00eencerca\u0163i, din c\u00e2nd \u00een c\u00e2nd, s\u0103 evalua\u0163i situa\u0163ia la rece.
\nAvem o dantel\u0103reas\u0103 pictat\u0103 de olandezul Caspar Netscher, o reprezentare delicat\u0103 a ideii de munc\u0103, expertiz\u0103 \u015fi cunoa\u015ftere, bazat\u0103 pe ni\u015fte principii burgheze ce ast\u0103zi par pu\u0163in perimate. Pentru c\u0103 o spun exper\u0163ii.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Subiectele care preocup\u0103 acum societatea au propulsat, parc\u0103 mai mult ca niciodat\u0103, \u00een spa\u0163iul public tot soiul de speciali\u015fti. Speciali\u015fti \u00een minerit, in\u015fi care au conceput modalit\u0103\u0163i de exploatare mult mai pu\u0163in periculoase dec\u00e2t cianurile, exper\u0163i \u00een cutremure, exper\u0163i \u00een transporturi, \u00een comunicare sau \u00een Dumnezeu mai \u015ftiu eu ce. Mai mult, inboxul meu e plin de speciali\u015fti care se ofer\u0103 s\u0103 m\u0103 \u00eenve\u0163e s\u0103 m\u0103 organizez, s\u0103 tr\u0103iesc, s\u0103 muncesc. Cineva s\u0103-i mai opreasc\u0103 pe exper\u0163i! Repet:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[529],"tags":[35349,9647,32946,13525,25158,16350,12875,18641,7606,10672,8327,7745],"class_list":["post-100051","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinii","tag-cianuri","tag-comunicare","tag-concepere","tag-cutremur","tag-dumnezeu","tag-experti","tag-exploatare","tag-minerit","tag-munca","tag-oprire","tag-scadere","tag-specialisti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100051","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=100051"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100051\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=100051"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=100051"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bm.dev.synology.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=100051"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}